Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Don’t think we can ignore the consistency, it’s the King for a reason. With the slight warm bias to this model, Probably wise to shift these bands southeast though

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736035200/1736575200-FWCEqvGvWfE.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1736035200/1736575200-qx3ZTfkPZK4.png

I'm going algorithm issue with those snowfall totals (sleet factor perhaps). Very messy temp profiles. Doubtful in my opinion those foot plus accumulations verify.

[wxman22]

Is the Euro maybe locking in? Its been the most consistent model for the last 24 hours or so FWIW. 0z EURO below.

[Ntxw]

King Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-qQ0fyChHnM0.png

Bi Polar GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-jRTA7kAxQrw.png

Every single year!!! Broken record with this model

At 5h it had the least amount of change compared to the other OPs which shifted, not in the same way at that, as their own prior runs. Good test if its 500mb skill scores being highest at the medium range holds.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley has made a new post on his FB account. Good read in these early Sunday hours.

[TropicalTundra]

The 6z NAM is slightly warmer than the 6z ICON since it looks like it isn’t handling the arctic mass well, but it’s modeling the system almost the exact same way.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS shifted back with qpf, at least that makes that crazy 0z run a bit of an outlier for that model.

[snownado]

6z GFS shifted back with qpf, at least that makes that crazy 0z run a bit of an outlier for that model.

But it's also notably warmer due to slower phasing (so mostly rain for everyone in TX except Texoma).

[Stratton23]

6z GFS has another winter storm around the 10 day mark lol

[Brent]

Accumulating snow has started on the north side of Kansas City probably gonna be historic

[Wthrfan]

Accumulating snow has started on the north side of Kansas City probably gonna be historic

Enjoy! That will be fun to be in!

[HockeyTx82]

The temperature forecast from FWD NWS is like 10F warmer then my weather app for Wed-Sat it seems. I know we are still a few days out. I genuinely wonder who will be right and how cold we really will get towards the end of the week when we have out best precipitation potential.

Side note. A thin line of storms is about to move through Denton County. Hmmm, I wonder what is causing that?

The first domino is about to fall!

[Brent]

Kansas City is gonna get buried... The peak isn't even til mid afternoon

JFK was President last time the airport had a foot

[orangeblood]

King Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-qQ0fyChHnM0.png

Bi Polar GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-jRTA7kAxQrw.png

Every single year!!! Broken record with this model

At 5h it had the least amount of change compared to the other OPs which shifted, not in the same way at that, as their own prior runs. Good test if its 500mb skill scores being highest at the medium range holds.

Pretty clear the 0Z GFS was an outlier as 6Z has gone back to more in line with King Euro (at least at 5h). Euro has been the most consistent of all globals by a long shot. Probably wise to overweight this one for the forecast moving forward.

That being said, the Euro Op trend is getting colder with a QPF event on the higher end of the ensemble mean. You can start to see that over the last few runs, axis of heaviest snow and ice starting to move southeast

Nasty ice storm from San Antonio to Austin to Tyler if this colder trend continues

[HockeyTx82]

Front passed through Ponder

30mph wind and Temp drop

[cheezyWXguy]

King Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-qQ0fyChHnM0.png

Bi Polar GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-jRTA7kAxQrw.png

Every single year!!! Broken record with this model

At 5h it had the least amount of change compared to the other OPs which shifted, not in the same way at that, as their own prior runs. Good test if its 500mb skill scores being highest at the medium range holds.

Pretty clear the 0Z GFS was an outlier as 6Z has gone back to more in line with King Euro (at least at 5h). Euro has been the most consistent of all globals by a long shot. Probably wise to overweight this one for the forecast moving forward.

That being said, the Euro Op trend is getting colder with a QPF event on the higher end of the ensemble mean. You can start to see that over the last few runs, axis of heaviest snow and ice starting to move southeast

Nasty ice storm from San Antonio to Austin to Tyler if this colder trend continues


https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/ecmwf-deterministic-tx-frzr_total-1736056800-1736575200-1736575200-40.gif

What do the snow accumulations look like this run?

[Brent]

It's barely even started in Kansas City

[orangeblood]

At 5h it had the least amount of change compared to the other OPs which shifted, not in the same way at that, as their own prior runs. Good test if its 500mb skill scores being highest at the medium range holds.

Pretty clear the 0Z GFS was an outlier as 6Z has gone back to more in line with King Euro (at least at 5h). Euro has been the most consistent of all globals by a long shot. Probably wise to overweight this one for the forecast moving forward.

That being said, the Euro Op trend is getting colder with a QPF event on the higher end of the ensemble mean. You can start to see that over the last few runs, axis of heaviest snow and ice starting to move southeast

Nasty ice storm from San Antonio to Austin to Tyler if this colder trend continues


https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/ecmwf-deterministic-tx-frzr_total-1736056800-1736575200-1736575200-40.gif

What do the snow accumulations look like this run?

Note the snow algorithms have its flaws with these setups. However the sounding for almost the entirety of the event is all snow for DFW, would set the all time DFW snowfall record if this run were to verify. It’s on the table IMO but way too early for any high confidence in this outcome. Worth noting though that the ensembles have a greater than 40% chance of higher than 6” plus amounts for DFW (something I’ve never seen before on this output feature)

[cheezyWXguy]

Pretty clear the 0Z GFS was an outlier as 6Z has gone back to more in line with King Euro (at least at 5h). Euro has been the most consistent of all globals by a long shot. Probably wise to overweight this one for the forecast moving forward.

That being said, the Euro Op trend is getting colder with a QPF event on the higher end of the ensemble mean. You can start to see that over the last few runs, axis of heaviest snow and ice starting to move southeast

Nasty ice storm from San Antonio to Austin to Tyler if this colder trend continues


https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/ecmwf-deterministic-tx-frzr_total-1736056800-1736575200-1736575200-40.gif

What do the snow accumulations look like this run?

Note the snow algorithms have its flaws with these setups. However the sounding for almost the entirety of the event is all snow for DFW, would set the all time DFW snowfall record if this run were to verify. It’s on the table IMO but way too early for any high confidence in this outcome. Worth noting though that the ensembles have a greater than 40% chance of higher than 6” plus amounts for DFW (something I’ve never seen before on this output feature)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736056800/1736575200-KK3UA8B0EwU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_ge_6/1736056800/1736575200-AyyDE36iokQ.png

I will remain calm.
I will remain composed.
I will resist the urge to weather-weenie out.

[HockeyTx82]

Pretty clear the 0Z GFS was an outlier as 6Z has gone back to more in line with King Euro (at least at 5h). Euro has been the most consistent of all globals by a long shot. Probably wise to overweight this one for the forecast moving forward.

That being said, the Euro Op trend is getting colder with a QPF event on the higher end of the ensemble mean. You can start to see that over the last few runs, axis of heaviest snow and ice starting to move southeast

Nasty ice storm from San Antonio to Austin to Tyler if this colder trend continues


https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/ecmwf-deterministic-tx-frzr_total-1736056800-1736575200-1736575200-40.gif

What do the snow accumulations look like this run?

Note the snow algorithms have its flaws with these setups. However the sounding for almost the entirety of the event is all snow for DFW, would set the all time DFW snowfall record if this run were to verify. It’s on the table IMO but way too early for any high confidence in this outcome. Worth noting though that the ensembles have a greater than 40% chance of higher than 6” plus amounts for DFW (something I’ve never seen before on this output feature)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736056800/1736575200-KK3UA8B0EwU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_ge_6/1736056800/1736575200-AyyDE36iokQ.png

In other words it will be mid 70's and sunshine.

[wxman22]

The front is here. When i went to sleep around 1:30 last night my thermometer had the temp at 63 degrees now its 35 F outside with winds gusting over 40 mph.

6Z EURO and 6Z ICON