Texas Winter 2024-2025

[sphelps8681]

The 12z Icon drops the TPV into Illinois with single-digit highs, which also crushes any chance of the low coming out across Texas.

It does come out though compared to prior runs thus giving S and SE Texas snow.

Noooo!! I told ya'll I did not want any of this mess. Cold is fine but snow. I also said if we did get it we are getting dumped on and most things will shut down. Hope no ice.

[wxman22]

12z GFS

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS drops 4-6" of snow across DFW with temps in the 20s.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS drops 4-6" of snow across DFW with temps in the 20s.

Looking at profiles I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more than that. Good saturation, fully saturated column well below freezing make me think ratios would be a good bit better than 10:1

[HockeyTx82]

12z GFS drops 4-6" of snow across DFW with temps in the 20s.

And watch it'll be gone and in the 50s next run.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 12z Icon drops the TPV into Illinois with single-digit highs, which also crushes any chance of the low coming out across Texas.

PV dropping in to the lower 48 is usually not great for snow here. In Feb '21, it worked great for us, since short waves were still rotating down from the Rockies.

[Portastorm]

True. For us in North Texas, we need some better spacing b/w the TPV and the Baja Low. Also, I wouldn't put too much stock in the South Texas snow b/c the energy coming out of the SW is getting sheared into the base of the trough. It would be a close call. Overall, we all want the TPV to stay farther from NE.

Ejecting Southwest lows are hard to predict especially in a case where it's not a wound up cutoff low. It's opening up so it's basically a shooting gallery of disturbances. I wouldn't get excited, north, central, or SE Texas on any snow map. We are basically looking for consensus eventually if it's coming out or not first. You're right though more separation is good but not too much, because then we'll be eroding the cold air source. Always has to be just right .

I've been on this board long enough to remember that I thought we said systems coming out of that part of the country tend to not be analyzed because we lose data in Mexico, therefore we don't know until it actually crosses over into the state and starts over performing.

Correct! There is a void of upper air sampling data from northern Mexico. So accurately predicting the emergence of upper level disturbances remains challenging.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Back from a week in Crested Butte. Cold place man. Snowed every day.

On the way there, a week ago, I received calls from my buddies saying that multiple people are telling them about snow in Houston. I dont know what media outlet is advertising this like it's a given, but I warned them that it was way too far out to lock in this snow event.

Looks like a battle between the GFS and the Euro. Will the low cut off near the Baja, or not. Interesting few days to come.

https://i.imgur.com/DIl7cd9.png
https://i.imgur.com/jJhdw9f.png

Been really focussing on the MJO recently, since I believe it to be the major driver at the moment, currently expected to be in phase 1 around Jan 8th, and roll into phase 2 days after that. I think a strong phase 2 in Jan will be positive for Texas.

Dang it’s moving quickly now. Wonder what that does for the rest of winter? Is this cold plunge now the grand finale or is a reload in February still on the table?

Well, Feb '21 ws a 3-4 phase i believe. Worked great in Feb, but not other months. I would have to refer to a cahrt and see whats best for us in the second half of winter.

I like what i see for mid Jan as well.

Already looking past this event

[orangeblood]

12z GFS drops 4-6" of snow across DFW with temps in the 20s.

For Texas Winter Storms, GFS is about as good of a 500 mb setup as you can ask for. Could not draw it up any better. It's beginning to show signs of consistency while the Canadian/ICON look like they're still having trouble piecing it all together.

But my biggest takeaway, all models continue to get colder with every run with reinforcing shots of Arctic Air every other day next week. Cold doesn't look like it'll be an issue with this event, all about honing in on the moisture/lift moving forward

Then potential for additional winter weather events end of week 2.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS shows 36 hours of snow with temps in the upper 20s and no warm nose. If that occurs some will absolutely cash in on big totals.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS drops 4-6" of snow across DFW with temps in the 20s.

For Texas Winter Storms, GFS is about as good of a 500 mb setup as you can ask for. Could not draw it up any better. It's beginning to show signs of consistency while the Canadian/ICON look like they're still having trouble piecing it all together.

But my biggest takeaway, all models continue to get colder with every run with reinforcing shots of Arctic Air every other day next week. Cold doesn't look like it'll be an issue with this event, all about honing in on the moisture/lift moving forward

Then potential for additional winter weather events end of week 2.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1735819200/1736337600-EtguJ2EO4js.png

Moisture was always the issue in North Texas. Once you get to I-10 then there's temp issues but more moisture. Either way, still a good chance a winter storm is coming. We are still viable for very cold air the second half of the month, that is when the very severe -EPO shows up and eastern/Atlantic ridge kicks in from retrogression...1985. It will drive directly down the Plains. I never bought in the deep cold early month, but snow yes.

[orangeblood]

Best analog I could find for this 500 mb setup is Feb 3-4 2011. Obviously nuance differences but looks like a good match

[Harp.1]

Let us know what the Euro says once it runs please

[HockeyTx82]

Best analog I could find for this 500 mb setup is Feb 3-4 2011. Obviously nuance differences but looks like a good match

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20110203.gif

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1735819200/1736359200-rfsUeEvzpFg.png

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/sfcplot_sm_20110203.gif

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1735819200/1736359200-TWHdk8maDF8.png

IIRC correctly we got an overperforming snow storm second part of that storm with a nice powder snow.

[gpsnowman]

Best analog I could find for this 500 mb setup is Feb 3-4 2011. Obviously nuance differences but looks like a good match

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20110203.gif

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1735819200/1736359200-rfsUeEvzpFg.png

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/sfcplot_sm_20110203.gif

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1735819200/1736359200-TWHdk8maDF8.png

IIRC correctly we got an overperforming snow storm second part of that storm with a nice powder snow.

Super Bowl week. Temps were well below freezing when the snow started. One of the quickest accumulating snows I've seen in DFW

[txtwister78]

There continues to be a small window of opportunity for winter precip obviously next week however ensembles continue to show signs of temp moderation by Friday next week. Both the 12z GEFS and ICON ensemble have temps in the low to mid 60's across SC TX points south into deep south TX on the 10th . You can definitely see the positive PNA influence on the ensembles with a bigger ridge out west late next wk. Obviously, we're not torching in this pattern but the cold definitely moderates to be sure.

I think the deterministic ICON has the best handle on this. Yes, it's going to get colder relative to averages. That's always been a given. The question is will it be just cold enough with the added upper-level disturbance creating enough cold air at all levels to support snow for that Wed/early Thurs(ish) timeframe that operationals have been showing. Odds look a little better each day but 12z ICON shows this is still a fluid situation dependent on timing (too progressive) and how strong/deep this disturbance ends up being.

[orangeblood]

12 GFS Ensembles not aligning with it's Op. Takes the storm out to central Baja similar to what the Canadian and Euro have been showing. Still have a ways to go with this obviously!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Best analog I could find for this 500 mb setup is Feb 3-4 2011. Obviously nuance differences but looks like a good match

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20110203.gif

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1735819200/1736359200-rfsUeEvzpFg.png

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/sfcplot_sm_20110203.gif

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1735819200/1736359200-TWHdk8maDF8.png

Thats a great analog. Also, they were expecting Houston to have a serious snowstorm and it went north to Dallas.

[Stratton23]

Id say confidence is increasing on potential a significant impactful winter weather event across a good chunk of texas, of course timing is everything, but im growing pretty confident someone could be in for a big surprise

[Stratton23]

Also whatever moderation we see after this looks to be extremely short lived as the pattern looks to reload st the end of the month into february, cold weather fans rejoice!