Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Don’t lose sleep and model watch, won’t know anything till about Sunday or Monday

It's gotten so bad here I probably won't believe anything til it's actually snowing

I mean last year fell apart in the final 6 hours. We've had snow holes two years in a row... It's just been horrible. I'm glad the pattern is showing promise but yikes

[cajungal]

https://youtu.be/o807peV8uck?si=IeI9T0pWGPCfc0VC

Would love another day like this in my town

[Harp.1]

What sayeth the euro? Obviously nothing much….

[Stratton23]

Dont worry about the operational run, the 00z EPS is in and it still has a very good signal for snow across the entirety of the state

[Harp.1]

Dont worry about the operational run, the 00z EPS is in and it still has a very good signal for snow across the entirety of the state

Keep in mind, I’m in Louisiana.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 haha whoops thats right, the signal still looks decent for yall, the operational models are going to struggle for a while, as wxman57 said by late this weekend or early next week we will have a much better picture on whats going to happen

[Stratton23]

06z GFS goes gung ho with a full on snow/sleet storm in central texas

[JayDT]

I’m liking the 6z GFS

[Gotwood]

Yes I will take that run any day. Look at that cold pooling in Canada at the end of the run.

[Cpv17]

Wow, poor Brent gets the middle finger on that 6z GFS..yikes! That’s bad.

[Brent]

Wow, poor Brent gets the middle finger on that 6z GFS..yikes! That’s bad.

I mean luckily the ensembles still look pretty good because the GFS has been hinting at that for several runs now and it just fits what has happened here the last couple years. If this winter doesn't turn it around I just don't understand it anymore. It has been going around us since 2022

I do have a fear though that Sunday will be too far north and beyond that is too far south. Like I really thought Sunday was gonna trend better. I mean it is 4 days away but still come on

[HockeyTx82]

Well my weather app I use went from low 30's for highs to now 40's Wednesday/Thursday and 50 for next Friday.

See you all in March over in the spring thread.

[Brent]

So tired of hearing about how fantasy land looks good. Nothing ever verifies

[WinterMax]

Well my weather app I use went from low 30's for highs to now 40's Wednesday/Thursday and 50 for next Friday.

See you all in March over in the spring thread.

Yeah I’m used to seeing as it gets closer the the time frame the models slowly begin to back off and warm up in each run, I hope that’s not the case here. The Euro seems to be backing off on the extreme cold.

[Brent]

Heck Sunday was supposed to be shifting south instead it's shifting north

Why bother. Everyone lies about our weather

[HockeyTx82]

Heck Sunday was supposed to be shifting south instead it's shifting north

Why bother. Everyone lies about our weather

Brent, such a sad post to start the New Year.

It sounds like you are in stage 3 of Grief.

Once you get to stage 7, things will get better.

Still time for things to go our way, the weather will do what it wants regardless of what the models say.

[Texas Snow]

Can’t believe the amount of whining on stuff that hasn’t happened. It’s taking over this page and there is still tons of hope for these storms and this winter.

[wxman57]

It appears that my new wall height data went into the overnight model runs. Gone is the 36 hrs below freezing and heavy snow in Houston next Thu-Fri. In its place, lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.

The issue appears to be how the models are handling that trof that moves into the Pac NW Sunday/Monday. Trend is to cut off a low and move it into the East Pacific instead of rotating it east across Texas late next week. That would greatly limit moisture and lifting across Texas. In addition, they're not bringing as much cold air south next week. From a big snow event to cold rain and maybe some sleet.

However, I have been saying that the models won't typically do very well with such patterns this far out. The next run could easily be cold again.

[wxman22]

12Z GFS still showing a major Texas snowstorm like the 6Z run.

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS still showing a major Texas snowstorm like the 6Z run.

https://i.ibb.co/ThFLv8R/gfs-deterministic-tx-instant-ptype-6424000-1.png

16" bullseye in Waco. Canadian is coming around, ICON is dry.