Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brandon8181]

When you get the Euro OP aligning with the GEFS ensemble, look out below!!! Confidence increasing that the coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere coming to our neighborhood in the 10-14 day period, source region loading up.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-gAi2hsHgSP8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-A2rJzKjbylQ.png

Even if this initial one doesn't pan out as things are still mixed; the next 10-28 days or so should bring some interest and things worth talking about for sure.

[txtwister78]

I took a composite of DFW's coldest January's, minus the pre-1948 years since it doesn't go back that far in the re-analysis source I'm using, but you can see why we are a tad excited about the upcoming period.

https://i.imgur.com/VhRFuIS.png

Did one for Texas as well and you get very similar years.

https://i.imgur.com/uGkQzSX.png

Love that Jan 85 is in there. Some big ticket snow events occurred in San Antonio then. One that dropped 14 inches which obviously still stands as the record setting event for the city.

I was a 2nd grader living in San Antonio when a sneaky snowstorm dropped a couple inches while in class in January 1982. By afternoon sun was out and the snow melted. Moved back to Dallas in 1984 and missed the San Antonio snow in 1985. January and February were pretty good for DFW though. The memories are fresh. Thanks to Harold Taft. Impacting weather period for me.

Yeah remember it as a kid also. It snowed a couple of inches on the 2nd of Jan and then a little over a week later we got the huge winter storm that came out of Mexico, and it completely shut the city down for several days. Started Friday night (11th) and things didn't start to improve until Tuesday afternoon.

[Cpv17]

the 2nd week is when the really bitter cold air could affect most of the US, first week of january is more of a transition period

And so it starts. Pushing everything another week. At this rate we will all be in shorts come January.

Not true. We’ve been saying for a while now that the second week of January is the one to really watch.

[Ntxw]

Brent gets a little snow from 0z GFS just after the new year.

[HockeyTx82]

the 2nd week is when the really bitter cold air could affect most of the US, first week of january is more of a transition period

And so it starts. Pushing everything another week. At this rate we will all be in shorts come January.

Not true. We’ve been saying for a while now that the second week of January is the one to really watch.

Ok, I'll come clean. I was making a joke

[Quixotic]

77, 78 and 79 were all timers. 79 damn near killed us with the NYE storm. A week without power. My fish froze in the tank. Powerlines arcing everywhere. 78 was more fun. Snow most days and big snows every week or two.

[Brent]

Brent gets a little snow from 0z GFS just after the new year.

That storm on the 2nd puts down some impressive totals up in Missouri so close

But I do think this is gonna be more of a gradual stepping down than all at once like mentioned before

[Ntxw]

It's colder up north past that system with another kicking into the southwest.

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS mean forecasted temperatures in Oklahoma, northern Texas, and Austin for Jan. 1st:

59–47...Austin Camp Mabry
53–43...Dallas
46–36...Oklahoma City
45–36...Tulsa

[Ntxw]

It's a dry run with the 2nd system, but it's potent at 500mb. Really blows up with qpf on the east coast.

OTOH what's up with the Canadian? It's been really all over the place this winter at 500mb.

[Harp.1]

That trough just doesn't dig far enough south as of now.

[Stratton23]

The first system on new years will probably be just a rain maker, thats the system that helps to kick start the big pattern change, notice how systems behind that new years day system on the GFS tend to dig out to the west of us, thats what you want to see

[Cpv17]

That trough just doesn't dig far enough south as of now.

Me and you will need a coastal low to develop.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles tonight are swinging the TPV back around hudson bay, starting to trend even colder

[Harp.1]

Ensembles tonight are swinging the TPV back around hudson bay, starting to trend even colder

When will this start showing up on the operational runs?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 probably not for another week or so, its outside the range of the operational guidancd

[gpsnowman]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?feature=shared
I love that video. Posted it a few times over the years. Weather starts at 10 minutes. Bring it.

[Throckmorton]

Judah Cohen's latest blog:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

[DallasAg]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?feature=shared
I love that video. Posted it a few times over the years. Weather starts at 10 minutes. Bring it.

Troy Dungan was greatness. No Harold Taft, but still a great one. It's crazy to see how matter-of-fact everyone was about this storm. No sensationalism, no panic in the streets, it wasn't the lead story. 36 hours out from the first flakes flying and it was all "hey, it's gonna get cold and there's going to be precip. Consider yourselves warned." Today it would've been non-stop coverage of the "Winter Wallop" or the "Arctic Invasion" or whatever eye-grabbing headline they wanted to make out of it. Total overstimulation. Jan-Feb 1985 was a great run. Snow on New Year's night, cold blast mid-month, big snow to bring in February. And the final freeze for the season was Feb 15th!

[cstrunk]

Marginal risk for severe weather today across central/east Texas. Nearly the same area is now under a Day 3 slight risk (Thursday). I'm not looking forward to picking up my in-laws in Dallas and driving to Waco this afternoon. But storm chasing on Thursday in December? Hmmm... don't tempt me with a good time! We'll see about that..