Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Brent EPS looks better for youre area

[Cpv17]

Brent EPS looks better for youre area

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/186726635 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

This is what I meant about the 12z GEFS. That’s a cold look for an ensemble, but then when I go look at Tropicaltidbits, the GEFS looks nothing like this lol

I think what this map is showing is just the difference between the last run and the most previous run and how it’s trended colder. Got me confused for a minute lol

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 yeah its weird, im not sure why it looks different on tropical tidbits, but for an ensemble mean, thats pretty chilly

[Brent]

EPS definitely has a better signal than the GEFS which is weird. Like the EPS actually has a couple big storms here the GEFS is like nevermind

There is a very clear cold shot next weekend though

[gpsnowman]

Call me an optimist but I like the way the winter has set up overall so far the US as a whole. Cold shots in the east when in past winters that hasn't happened, a lot of snow where it should snow around the country especially in the south. Something is brewing down the road I think for the central plains towards the New Year. If the pesky PNA starts to retrograde then we should be in business later this winter. The frequency of cold fronts across the lower 48 is definitely encouraging to see. Patience, we must wait this one out. It's Texas, one chance is all we need and is almost always the case.

[Texas Snowman]

OKC weatherman Mike Morgan not mincing any words this afternoon about what he thinks may be coming in about a week or so…

 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1867277159657877862

[Brent]

Call me an optimist but I like the way the winter has set up overall so far the US as a whole. Cold shots in the east when in past winters that hasn't happened, a lot of snow where it should snow around the country especially in the south. Something is brewing down the road I think for the central plains towards the New Year. If the pesky PNA starts to retrograde then we should be in business later this winter. The frequency of cold fronts across the lower 48 is definitely encouraging to see. Patience, we must wait this one out. It's Texas, one chance is all we need and is almost always the case.

Oh after hearing in Breckenridge they are at mid winters pace I don't think we have any excuse this year up here to not do better than the last two trash winters. I don't know if it'll be before Christmas but it has to happen in January or February

[Stratton23]

Man im really liking that 18z GFS… Ridge balloons over Alaska at day 5-6, cold run and showing signs of overrunning precipitation across central texas

[Brent]

Pretty significant cold snap on the TV forecast but will the fun be east of us? The GFS ensembles look to favor a +PNA again

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is 1050s HP in northern US about a week.

[Brent]

Yeah if it's gonna be as cold next weekend as the GFS shows there better be some precip

[Stratton23]

Although dry this run, the GFS does have a shortwave that moves down the central us into se texas, this is a very interesting pattern, energy is their on that run though

[Lagreeneyes03]

Alaskan ridging in place on the Euro, my confidence is on the higher side of a pretty good cold blast late next week, precipitation is definitely a question though

I take it this weekend may be the last we see of 70 degree temps in DFW then, we are looking warm, relatively speaking through Tuesday or so. 5 out of 6 days with at least 50 percent rain forecast.

[Brent]

Not much of a warmup on the GFS even towards Christmas

[Cpv17]

I’m gonna need this +PNA to chill out.

[Stratton23]

Thats the one caviet here, the PNA, Models have been trending a little more stronger positive with the PNA, still a long ways to to, but definitely dont need it to keep going more positive thats for sure

[Gotwood]

Can’t think of many things I hate more than super cold weather without winter precipitation. Always just feels like a massive waste of cold.

[Cpv17]

Might have to wait till January for the EPO to really cooperate. Hopefully the PNA will be less positive by then as well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Alaskan ridging in place on the Euro, my confidence is on the higher side of a pretty good cold blast late next week, precipitation is definitely a question though

Check out the 12z GEFS.

I only see a few members on the GEFS with any snow for Tulsa

I hope it's not all east of us. I just got back from Colorado and yeah I think we have no excuses this year to eventually get something

Site are you using to see individual ensemble members?

[snowballzzz]

Looks like the PNA doesn’t want to budge and go negative until at least the very end of December. At least Christmas doesn’t look like a complete torch and we have some shots at some rain. I feel like this has been our theme for the last 5 years. Cold Decembers in Texas just don’t seem to exist anymore.