Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

It still doesn't look like a torch pattern. Remember in winter strong SE flexing ridge is prolonged torch. 500mb ridge with NW flow below not so much.

70's this weekend forecast though

That's not a torch pattern though, 70s happens every December even cold ones. 83, 89, 09, 13 all had them. It's when you string together a week or more +. We were deep into the 70s and 80s multiple weeks worth in 2021.

[Stratton23]

I mean the average high here in se texas is probably around 74 degrees, so 70’s in the forecast isnt really a torch to me, i just hope we dont have another christmas where its 80’s degrees, luckily that seems rather unlikely at this time

[JayDT]

Also, i’m seeing 60s being forecasted for the weekend as of right now, not 70s.

[Brent]

Also, i’m seeing 60s being forecasted for the weekend as of right now, not 70s.

Yeah this weekend still isnt forecast any warmer than we have been

The EPS doesn't have any days warmer than low 60s either for Tulsa.. It was 65 last week! Besides the 300 hour GFS there's never been any 70s showing up...

Also it's only showing one day hitting 60

[Stratton23]

Starting to see that ridge building in NW canada- Alaska just in time for christmas day on the 18z GFS

[Brent]

Snow in Kansas Christmas Day on the gfs

[Golfisnteasy7575]

It still doesn't look like a torch pattern. Remember in winter strong SE flexing ridge is prolonged torch. 500mb ridge with NW flow below not so much.

70's this weekend forecast though

That's not a torch pattern though, 70s happens every December even cold ones. 83, 89, 09, 13 all had them. It's when you string together a week or more +. We were deep into the 70s and 80s multiple weeks worth in 2021.

In 2021-22 winter, December was a blowtorch. Starting new years, the pattern flipped to cold and stormy.

[Brent]

70's this weekend forecast though

That's not a torch pattern though, 70s happens every December even cold ones. 83, 89, 09, 13 all had them. It's when you string together a week or more +. We were deep into the 70s and 80s multiple weeks worth in 2021.

In 2021-22 winter, December was a blowtorch. Starting new years, the pattern flipped to cold and stormy.

Yeah I still remember 21-22 Tulsa didn't even have a real snow til February. December sucked and January barely had a flake

[Ntxw]

That's not a torch pattern though, 70s happens every December even cold ones. 83, 89, 09, 13 all had them. It's when you string together a week or more +. We were deep into the 70s and 80s multiple weeks worth in 2021.

In 2021-22 winter, December was a blowtorch. Starting new years, the pattern flipped to cold and stormy.

Yeah I still remember 21-22 Tulsa didn't even have a real snow til February. December sucked and January barely had a flake

Feb 2022 was particularly chilly. DFW had 16 freezes (most this century for that month) and 3 separate winter weather events.

[Iceresistance]

The model uncertainty is very high

 https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1866629531005751317

[Golfisnteasy7575]

It's a very interesting pattern moving forward. Alot of conflicting signals imo. Be a great test for euro AI to see if it hypes cold patterns or it's a very good model

[Stratton23]

The 20th is looking interesting, models indicting some arctic air may try to get pushed down into the Lower 48 , Euro/ CMC and the GFS all have a storm system in the same time frame, Euro AIFS 18z has alaskan ridging in place so it has a colder outlook like the CMC, interesting week ahead

[Texas Snowman]

Mike Morgan starting to talk about a chance of snow in OKC…

 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1866629029031448767

[Brent]

I dunno guys after being in Breckenridge since Sunday I just find it hard to believe this winter isn't gonna be way different. I mean a bunch of stuff isn't even operating yet here because it's December 10th and usually they don't have enough snow. I mean it's absolutely crazy I never expected to see this so early. It was still flurrying an hour ago when I walked back from dinner even. There were times last week when I wondered if it would snow at all while I was here and it's pretty much snowed on and off the entire 2 days

Things that make you wonder big time

[TropicalTundra]

I dunno guys after being in Breckenridge since Sunday I just find it hard to believe this winter isn't gonna be way different. I mean a bunch of stuff isn't even operating yet here because it's December 10th and usually they don't have enough snow. I mean it's absolutely crazy I never expected to see this so early. It was still flurrying an hour ago when I walked back from dinner even. There were times last week when I wondered if it would snow at all while I was here

Things that make you wonder big time

There’s still 80 days of winter. That’s 7 million seconds. There’s still plenty of time for this winter to become way different

[Stratton23]

00z CMC with a 1053 MB high dropping out of western canada, thats pretty darn cold

[Ntxw]

GFS is a little further north with the main system, Canadian is major winter storm for the southern plains. Guess the signal now is that around 19-20th the ridge pattern gets broken.

[Stratton23]

CMC has lost its marbles, highs below freezing for the entire state, lows in the 20’s for se texas and even single digits for north texas, lol and the GFS is much warmer haha

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dunno guys after being in Breckenridge since Sunday I just find it hard to believe this winter isn't gonna be way different. I mean a bunch of stuff isn't even operating yet here because it's December 10th and usually they don't have enough snow. I mean it's absolutely crazy I never expected to see this so early. It was still flurrying an hour ago when I walked back from dinner even. There were times last week when I wondered if it would snow at all while I was here and it's pretty much snowed on and off the entire 2 days

Things that make you wonder big time

The mountains have had three significant storms already this winter. The one that just passed through was tiny. As you mentioned, the ski runs are fantastic out there. Plenty of snow already.

[Stratton23]

Euro 00z is pretty chilly throughout its entire run, goes out 15 days, very interesting pattern ahead