Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Well, at least we always have commercial with the overly attractive young couple where the guy gives his girl a puppy and she buys him a GMC Truck.

That looks like an amazing amount of snow. We can only dream.

Poor guy has received the same gift 8 years in a row. And the puppy never ages.

[Brent]

For all this talk of warmth the EPS actually has a few snowy members around the 19th and still doesn't have anything warmer than we've already seen the last couple weeks through the 21st(it was 65 on Wednesday) now yeah it's not going to be cold and I'm sure it won't snow but it's also not some record torch like these people on Facebook seem to be calling for

The bigger issue is probably still dry more than warm for the people who didn't get all the rain in November

[Ntxw]

For all this talk of warmth the EPS actually has a few snowy members around the 19th and still doesn't have anything warmer than we've already seen the last couple weeks through the 21st(it was 65 on Wednesday) now yeah it's not going to be cold and I'm sure it won't snow but it's also not some record torch like these people on Facebook seem to be calling for

The bigger issue is probably still dry more than warm for the people who didn't get all the rain in November

Kind of what I've been thinking with that NW flow from earlier in the month. It's mostly been near to below normal despite models showing ridging. We've still managed the first week below normal. Maybe the long range models are too much with the +anomalies.

[Iceresistance]

For all this talk of warmth the EPS actually has a few snowy members around the 19th and still doesn't have anything warmer than we've already seen the last couple weeks through the 21st(it was 65 on Wednesday) now yeah it's not going to be cold and I'm sure it won't snow but it's also not some record torch like these people on Facebook seem to be calling for

The bigger issue is probably still dry more than warm for the people who didn't get all the rain in November

Kind of what I've been thinking with that NW flow from earlier in the month. It's mostly been near to below normal despite models showing ridging. We've still managed the first week below normal. Maybe the long range models are too much with the +anomalies.

Even though the models are pointing towards +EPO and +PNA pattern for most of December

[Ntxw]

For all this talk of warmth the EPS actually has a few snowy members around the 19th and still doesn't have anything warmer than we've already seen the last couple weeks through the 21st(it was 65 on Wednesday) now yeah it's not going to be cold and I'm sure it won't snow but it's also not some record torch like these people on Facebook seem to be calling for

The bigger issue is probably still dry more than warm for the people who didn't get all the rain in November

Kind of what I've been thinking with that NW flow from earlier in the month. It's mostly been near to below normal despite models showing ridging. We've still managed the first week below normal. Maybe the long range models are too much with the +anomalies.

Even though the models are pointing towards +EPO and +PNA pattern for most of December

One thing we have to consider, source regions. Remember 500mb flow (teleconnections) are only a part of it. The associated air masses too, if we're going to get extended torch, our source regions will have been torching as well, which currently are not. You need an overpowering extended southeast ridge to really bring the heat.

[Brent]

It just seems to me the real torch is still like 2 weeks out and honestly it may not even verify. The EPS has the mean dropping or flat not going up towards the end

[TeamPlayersBlue]

MJO is ruining Christmas. Why wont that thing move?!?!?

[Brent]

MJO is ruining Christmas. Why wont that thing move?!?!?

Ugh our luck is just the worst lately. Maybe things will flip around in January

I will say the EPS snow mean isn't totally blank still for Tulsa

[Ntxw]

DFW is now -2.9F below normal and tomorrow looks the warmest of the next 5-7 which is near to slightly above normal. Monday will be chilly again and a stretch of near normal to slightly above normal highs. While not deep cold, we've managed to stretch below normal days together! I'd be cautious of fantasy warmth.

[Stratton23]

i am seeing some signs of the ridge over the western US retrograding back into Alaska in the longer range or around the 19-20th , at least it looks slightly better than it did several days ago, we will see

[Stratton23]

Big changes in the ensembles, more increased heights/ ridging over alaska, aleutian trough is weaker and shunted back off to the NW

[Ntxw]

Big changes in the ensembles, more increased heights/ ridging over alaska, aleutian trough is weaker and shunted back off to the NW

This is why I noted we have to give it a few days worth of cycles. Sometimes we only see a snapshot of a moment that cutoffs during a transition period. Aleutian low pattern in the past, despite it's short term jet extension issues, usually leads to colder weather down the road. Aleutian low patterns attack the SPV.

[Iceresistance]

I love how the GEFS trended away from the torch


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJl1V.gif

[Ntxw]

I love how the GEFS trended away from the torch

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJl1V.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJl1V.gif

Looks to me like more NW flow, which isn't warmth direction.

[Ntxw]

High pressure over the Beaufort Sea is not a warm set up. In fact it is a Canada cold load pattern.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw interesting, did not think an Aleutian low could be a precursor to a much colder pattern down the road

[Iceresistance]

 https://x.com/Jayismyname1707/status/1865829592084132086

[Ntxw]

Ntxw interesting, did not think an Aleutian low could be a precursor to a much colder pattern down the road

Wave 1 attack from the Pacific on the stratosphere is Aleutian low. Couple that with wave 2 from the Atlantic/Scandinavia and you can split the PV. Also processes is self retrogression of the Aleutian low pattern. It pumps high pressure over the top in the Beaufort Sea/Arctic. Historically, what we know as 'favorable' weak-mod El Ninos are fueled by a good Aleutian low pattern. The flat Aleutian high is the opposite, known for heat and warmth here.

[Iceresistance]

Ntxw interesting, did not think an Aleutian low could be a precursor to a much colder pattern down the road

Wave 1 attack from the Pacific on the stratosphere is Aleutian low. Couple that with wave 2 from the Atlantic/Scandinavia and you can split the PV. Also processes is self retrogression of the Aleutian low pattern. It pumps high pressure over the top in the Beaufort Sea/Arctic. Historically, what we know as 'favorable' weak-mod El Ninos are fueled by a good Aleutian low pattern. The flat Aleutian high is the opposite, known for heat and warmth here.

We don't want the low pressure to be at the Gulf of Alaska

[Ntxw]

Ntxw interesting, did not think an Aleutian low could be a precursor to a much colder pattern down the road

Wave 1 attack from the Pacific on the stratosphere is Aleutian low. Couple that with wave 2 from the Atlantic/Scandinavia and you can split the PV. Also processes is self retrogression of the Aleutian low pattern. It pumps high pressure over the top in the Beaufort Sea/Arctic. Historically, what we know as 'favorable' weak-mod El Ninos are fueled by a good Aleutian low pattern. The flat Aleutian high is the opposite, known for heat and warmth here.

We don't want to be at the Gulf of Alaska

I don't think it will. It's more of a function of MJO and EAJ/Pacific jet. What we saw on the ENS was simply the cutoff point from the models of a transition period, simply because the maps ran out of time. As we extend it may seem more like extension then retraction.