Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

I think the models are really struggling with that storm next week still... I've seen runs burying Colorado with snow with some down into the Panhandle and Oklahoma and other runs with almost no snow even up in Colorado

I would be very cautious about believing anything

[txtwister78]

One thing looks relatively certain and that is some increased rain potential for parts of SC TX where it's still very much needed.

500mb setup looks interesting as NTX points out, but as usual with these upper-level systems mixing with whatever cold can be delivered, devil is always in the details across Texas but at least the pattern looks a bit more active and temps feel more like December.

[Ntxw]

Does the Houston area get anything out of this system?

Lots of rain if it comes out with negative tilt, doesn't show much wintry precip for anyone yet except maybe out in Abilene and that region for now.

Can you show what you’re talking about out around Abilene area?

GFS has a band of wintry mix from Abilene-ish to Eastland. I wouldn't be too focused though it's just one run and really could be gone the next.

[Ntxw]

Example from the Euro below of source region. Have much of Canada -20s or colder is a good source region, expanse is just as important if not more than being -40s in higher elevations but a smaller coverage just the northern half.

[Brent]

Euro is like Amarillo to Ponca City for wintry weather but again the op runs are all over the place. Gotta watch the ensembles and I mean there's a signal even here but it's not that impressive so far. Just have to watch and see if it grows in the coming days we are still talking about a week out

[Stratton23]

Joe Bastardi tweeted out about a potential sudden stratospheric warming event caused by the MJO mid month that could have downstream effects in early january

[TropicalTundra]

12z NAM is interesting. Rain starts Friday morning near the Rio Grande and temps start dropping to 38-36 range as the rain intensifies Friday Night into Saturday. Upper levels don't look really cool though, so probably just really cold rain or maybe light freezing rain if it does get cold enough

[Brent]

No talk of winter weather here but I've seen about 4 posts today talking about heat coming well they better be wrong is all I'm gonna say

[Stratton23]

CPC has a slight risk of hazardous cold temperatures for all of texas next week, in terms of heat, while i do see warm ups after this, i dont see anything extreme, just sounds like the typical doom and gloom from mets on X whenever a model run comes in and it shows a bad pattern, ive just stopped paying attention to mets on that site outside of a couple people lol

[Stratton23]

That being said, ensembles show a + NAO/ + EPO and MJO stalling in phase 6 blow torch pattern for beyond next weeks cold spell, winter is only making a short appearance before the really miserable weather returns

[txtwister78]

No talk of winter weather here but I've seen about 4 posts today talking about heat coming well they better be wrong is all I'm gonna say

Calendar still says December 2nd. Just thought I'd post that for context and climatology reference. Alot can and will change in model world. Until then, hang in there. Long way to go yet.

[Ntxw]

It's the East Coast folks . Anything short of +PNA and trough in the west-central is a death knell for them .

The GEFS and EPS do show raised heights over the country though and flat ridge NW of Hawaii, that'll spook many.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw unfortunately the MJO is going to stall in phase 6, we better enjoy whatever cold we get next week, because its really starting to look ugly on alot of the guidance, hopefully we dont see ridging build over hawaii otherwise that pacific jet pattern is going to come roaring back

[Brent]

I'm confused because I thought we were flipping to a better pattern after next week and there's actually a met here saying 70s are possible now. Like what? I know it's December 3rd but come on

[Stratton23]

Brent unfortunately its looking ugly, because now the MJO is really starting to slow down in phase 6, something that wasnt accounted for, it also doesnt help that the PV is record strong right now, that pacific air is coming back

[HockeyTx82]

What the hell?

We went from cold and prolonged cold to next week is it and winter is over?

I need to get off this board, these mood and model swings are taking a toll on my health.

[Brent]

What the hell?

We went from cold and prolonged cold to next week is it and winter is over?

I need to get off this board, these mood and model swings are taking a toll on my health.

It's not over clearly but I'm tired of everything always going against us and there's no way we're waiting til February this year to do anything

[Cpv17]

It also appears now that most of the rain will be into Louisiana when the bulk of it was supposed to be in Texas. Should still get 1-3”, but Louisiana will get double that, or more.

[Stratton23]

I think im getting myself too caught up with these “ pro mets” on x, its like today’s model runs dont show cold in the long range, and now its like the sky is falling, blow torch is coming pattern, at least thats what is being thrown around on X , when a few days ago they were calling for a colder 2nd half of december, honestly kind of hard to trust them when they are quick to flip that much, but also to be honest their definitely are some unfavorable factors showing up in the ensembles that i dont like

[Brent]

I think im getting myself too caught up with these “ pro mets” on x, its like today’s model runs dont show cold in the long range, and now its like the sky is falling, blow torch is coming pattern, at least thats what is being thrown around on X , when a few days ago they were calling for a colder 2nd half of december, honestly kind of hard to trust them when they are quick to flip that much, but also to be honest their definitely are some unfavorable factors showing up in the ensembles that i dont like

This hobby isn't for the faint of heart for sure like I don't even know why anyone tries to predict 2 weeks out. It changes every 5 minutes