Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

No surprise that ensembles have backed off and shifted east and se with the cold, knowing texas, it will be shorts weather next week lol

[Ntxw]

No surprise that ensembles have backed off and shifted east and se with the cold, knowing texas, it will be shorts weather next week lol

This is why it's not so good to put stock into 7+ days out, it gets us excited but we have to think in terms of reality. Especially with the recent track record. It should still be a period of below normal to end this month and begin December. Before we get happy about any deep cold, we need to get consistently below normal.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw i get that, and i never expected extreme cold, but its just very frustrating that it always looks good initially, , when its been so warm and cold air has been hard to come by, it just gets depressing seeing everything trend SE of you

[Brent]

Hey at least it's only November.. I was always skeptical about the cold being worth it anyway(aka an actual snowstorm)

I'm sorry but I don't want Christmas 1989 when it was zero degrees and no snow on the ground here. That's pointless

[CaptinCrunch]

No surprise that ensembles have backed off and shifted east and se with the cold, knowing texas, it will be shorts weather next week lol

Models will waffle back and forth this time of year and it's still is November which isn't famously know for bitter cold.

Even if it's only a few days below average it's still a good thing, and there is still no true sign of a La Nina so ENSO neutral may be what we get this winter, which is more conducive of us having a normal to slightly below Winter.

I definitely have a better feeling for this winter than I had heading into October.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw i get that, and i never expected extreme cold, but its just very frustrating that it always looks good initially, , when its been so warm and cold air has been hard to come by, it just gets depressing seeing everything trend SE of you

You mean like when it's -PDO/-PNA and it goes west of us, and then it gets cold enough and PNA is just enough to screw us over? Plenty of times! The cold just isn't deep enough, it's not that it's east or west, it's just not yet expansive enough. Being in the edges of the cold in deep winter is good for winter storms...but not always great early on.

We may still be a little colder than the models are hinting, especially the eastern part of the state.

[Iceresistance]

Ntxw i get that, and i never expected extreme cold, but its just very frustrating that it always looks good initially, , when its been so warm and cold air has been hard to come by, it just gets depressing seeing everything trend SE of you

You mean like when it's -PDO/-PNA and it goes west of us, and then it gets cold enough and PNA is just enough to screw us over? Plenty of times! The cold just isn't deep enough, it's not that it's east or west, it's just not yet expansive enough. Being in the edges of the cold in deep winter is good for winter storms...but not always great early on.

We may still be a little colder than the models are hinting, especially the eastern part of the state.

I just saw a post where the EPS severely underestimated the -WPO
 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1860397275354124473

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance what could this mean? I dont know much about the WPO

[Brent]

Isn't a -WPO -EPO what we want for wintry weather

I think the point is this is probably just the beginning of the fronts. They will get stronger and stormier? as we get into deeper into December in theory

The biggest issue right now with this one like ntxw said is that it isn't that cold upstream yet. We can't get really cold without that regardless

[Ntxw]

WPO and EPO are the cold loading(or lack thereof) indexes. In their negative phases the Pacific jet is essentially blocked, thus the continent is allowed to cool and flow is from the Arctic rather than the milder Ocean. When both are negative the flow is from Siberia, across the Chuckchi-Beaufort Seas and then into North America.

EPO can help drive cold as it is a factory for big high pressure systems. But once it is moving south other flow patterns then determine which parts of the US gets the trajectory, PNA, NAO, zonal pattern etc. A severe -EPO can overpower them with shallow cold air masses as well.

[Ntxw]

The start of December should be chilly, I'm not yet buying the ridge out west shoving into the intermountain west just yet. At the very least it looks like northwest flow which in winter for us is a cold pattern. Might be dry, but below normal should be the deal. Ideas still relatively unchanged with warm today and tomorrow, then cooler, warmup before the Thanksgiving front then a cool/cold end of the week below normal. The week after will likely remain below normal, how much is tbd.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance what could this mean? I dont know much about the WPO

WPO is like EPO, but further west towards Japan, both being negative means that the pacific is blocked and the cold can dislodge from the Arctic

[Iceresistance]

The start of December should be chilly, I'm not yet buying the ridge out west shoving into the intermountain west just yet. At the very least it looks like northwest flow which in winter for us is a cold pattern. Might be dry, but below normal should be the deal. Ideas still relatively unchanged with warm today and tomorrow, then cooler, warmup before the Thanksgiving front then a cool/cold end of the week below normal. The week after will likely remain below normal, how much is tbd.

And for how long

[Ntxw]

The start of December should be chilly, I'm not yet buying the ridge out west shoving into the intermountain west just yet. At the very least it looks like northwest flow which in winter for us is a cold pattern. Might be dry, but below normal should be the deal. Ideas still relatively unchanged with warm today and tomorrow, then cooler, warmup before the Thanksgiving front then a cool/cold end of the week below normal. The week after will likely remain below normal, how much is tbd.

And for how long

Likely through mid December. I know the ENS has a means above normal 500mb heights due to the PNA but surface NW flow is usually a cold direction. I'd wage bets the ridging off the west coast/Alaska is a lot more persistent than the means will show. Very long range guidance have done poorly accounting for what has happened in the northeast Pacific domain.

Speaking of that, Euro weeklies retrograde the ridging and we get a more typical cold north and SE ridge pattern. Might be some shallow air movements beyond that period.

[Iceresistance]

The start of December should be chilly, I'm not yet buying the ridge out west shoving into the intermountain west just yet. At the very least it looks like northwest flow which in winter for us is a cold pattern. Might be dry, but below normal should be the deal. Ideas still relatively unchanged with warm today and tomorrow, then cooler, warmup before the Thanksgiving front then a cool/cold end of the week below normal. The week after will likely remain below normal, how much is tbd.

And for how long

Likely through mid December. I know the ENS has a means above normal 500mb heights due to the PNA but surface NW flow is usually a cold direction. I'd wage bets the ridging off the west coast/Alaska is a lot more persistent than the means will show. Very long range guidance have done poorly accounting for what has happened in the northeast Pacific domain.

Speaking of that, Euro weeklies retrograde the ridging and we get a more typical cold north and SE ridge pattern. Might be some shallow air movements beyond that period.

Shallow Arctic Air ignores the upper-level patterns, and it's notoriously hard to forecast

[Stratton23]

GFS 18z gets awfully close to showing a wintry mix setup for se texas, coastal low develops with precipitation falling in the mid 30’s, just too warm, but very interesting

[Golfisnteasy7575]

WPO and EPO are the cold loading(or lack thereof) indexes. In their negative phases the Pacific jet is essentially blocked, thus the continent is allowed to cool and flow is from the Arctic rather than the milder Ocean. When both are negative the flow is from Siberia, across the Chuckchi-Beaufort Seas and then into North America.

EPO can help drive cold as it is a factory for big high pressure systems. But once it is moving south other flow patterns then determine which parts of the US gets the trajectory, PNA, NAO, zonal pattern etc. A severe -EPO can overpower them with shallow cold air masses as well.

I think if we want a legit opportunity at a winter storm, we would like to see energy diving down the four corners or slightly east imo

[Brent]

Even with the cold further east there's still a decent signal here on the ensembles for some snow honestly. EPS actually has one big member which it didn't yesterday

Also the Euro had a high of 35 next Sunday

[Stratton23]

Interesting overnight runs, GFS AND CMC have a shortwave trough coming out of baja california as the arctic air plunges south

[Brent]

Interesting overnight runs, GFS AND CMC have a shortwave trough coming out of baja california as the arctic air plunges south

The CMC has a storm here on the day our met predicted the first snow like a week and a half ago that's gonna be something if he's close