Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

Ntxw 12z GFS shows that extreme blocking scenario, honestly kind of seems some of the guidance is underestimating the alaskan blocking , etc too weak

[Ntxw]

Ntxw 12z GFS shows that extreme blocking scenario, honestly kind of seems some of the guidance is underestimating the alaskan blocking , etc too weak

For sure, 7 days ago they were not strong enough to what is out there now. It is much more extreme over the Aleutians than what the GFS was showing back then. Usually the case starting with ensembles smoothing, also with something anomalous they can underdo as well. We'll have to see but it is a pretty strong signature on the ensembles of locked in ridging over Alaska for a long duration.

If the ridge bridge over the Bering->Alaska holds, Siberia is open. We'll probably see some big runs of HPs and cold in the long range.

[Stratton23]

EPS 12z very impressive with the blocking extending all the way into the bearing sea even into december, could have some wonky runs in the coming days

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Ntxw 12z GFS shows that extreme blocking scenario, honestly kind of seems some of the guidance is underestimating the alaskan blocking , etc too weak

For sure, 7 days ago they were not strong enough to what is out there now. It is much more extreme over the Aleutians than what the GFS was showing back then. Usually the case starting with ensembles smoothing, also with something anomalous they can underdo as well. We'll have to see but it is a pretty strong signature on the ensembles of locked in ridging over Alaska for a long duration.

If the ridge bridge over the Bering->Alaska holds, Siberia is open. We'll probably see some big runs of HPs and cold in the long range.

2013-14 was a great winter. The epo/wpo helped us alot that winter for sure. Those are rare for a reason. It would be nice to see something similar and take our chances with that

[Ntxw]

Ntxw 12z GFS shows that extreme blocking scenario, honestly kind of seems some of the guidance is underestimating the alaskan blocking , etc too weak

For sure, 7 days ago they were not strong enough to what is out there now. It is much more extreme over the Aleutians than what the GFS was showing back then. Usually the case starting with ensembles smoothing, also with something anomalous they can underdo as well. We'll have to see but it is a pretty strong signature on the ensembles of locked in ridging over Alaska for a long duration.

If the ridge bridge over the Bering->Alaska holds, Siberia is open. We'll probably see some big runs of HPs and cold in the long range.

2013-14 was a great winter. The epo/wpo helped us alot that winter for sure. Those are rare for a reason. It would be nice to see something similar and take our chances with that

The current ridge in the Aleutian/Alaskan region is one of the strongest for the date (if not the strongest will need to wait for peak) and to have guidance follow up on another one might be a tell-tale sign something is happening to favor it.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

For sure, 7 days ago they were not strong enough to what is out there now. It is much more extreme over the Aleutians than what the GFS was showing back then. Usually the case starting with ensembles smoothing, also with something anomalous they can underdo as well. We'll have to see but it is a pretty strong signature on the ensembles of locked in ridging over Alaska for a long duration.

If the ridge bridge over the Bering->Alaska holds, Siberia is open. We'll probably see some big runs of HPs and cold in the long range.

2013-14 was a great winter. The epo/wpo helped us alot that winter for sure. Those are rare for a reason. It would be nice to see something similar and take our chances with that

The current ridge in the Aleutian/Alaskan region is one of the strongest for the date (if not the strongest will need to wait for peak) and to have guidance follow up on another one might be a tell-tale sign something is happening to favor it.

I know it's early, but I would hate to waste a cold pattern with no winter weather here if it does get cold

[Stratton23]

Ntxw wow! Didnt realize it was that strong! Id definitely figure we are going to see some very cold runs in the medium/ long range

[Iceresistance]

For sure, 7 days ago they were not strong enough to what is out there now. It is much more extreme over the Aleutians than what the GFS was showing back then. Usually the case starting with ensembles smoothing, also with something anomalous they can underdo as well. We'll have to see but it is a pretty strong signature on the ensembles of locked in ridging over Alaska for a long duration.

If the ridge bridge over the Bering->Alaska holds, Siberia is open. We'll probably see some big runs of HPs and cold in the long range.

2013-14 was a great winter. The epo/wpo helped us alot that winter for sure. Those are rare for a reason. It would be nice to see something similar and take our chances with that

The current ridge in the Aleutian/Alaskan region is one of the strongest for the date (if not the strongest will need to wait for peak) and to have guidance follow up on another one might be a tell-tale sign something is happening to favor it.

Wait, what? A powerful ridge up there?

[Brent]

Yeah needless to say I'm gonna be mad if a foot of rain in November doesn't translate to a big snowstorm here just once

Hoping there's some truth to 13-14 at least because some of the analogs are beyond terrible floating around(like 34-35 where we just barely didn't beat on consecutive highs above 60)

[starsfan65]

Yeah needless to say I'm gonna be mad if a foot of rain in November doesn't translate to a big snowstorm here just once

Hoping there's some truth to 13-14 at least because some of the analogs are beyond terrible floating around(like 34-35 where we just barely didn't beat on consecutive highs above 60)

Brent You will be in the 50's for a couple of days.

[Brent]

Yeah needless to say I'm gonna be mad if a foot of rain in November doesn't translate to a big snowstorm here just once

Hoping there's some truth to 13-14 at least because some of the analogs are beyond terrible floating around(like 34-35 where we just barely didn't beat on consecutive highs above 60)

Brent You will be in the 50's for a couple of days.

We broke it today is why it's news... 2 days short of the record in 1934. Tulsa had a half inch of snow that winter. Beyond horrible. Like that's worse than last years joke

[Ntxw]

2013-14 was a great winter. The epo/wpo helped us alot that winter for sure. Those are rare for a reason. It would be nice to see something similar and take our chances with that

The current ridge in the Aleutian/Alaskan region is one of the strongest for the date (if not the strongest will need to wait for peak) and to have guidance follow up on another one might be a tell-tale sign something is happening to favor it.

Wait, what? A powerful ridge up there?

It was nearly 576-580 dm in the Aleutians. That's nuts even for lower latitudes nonetheless that far up north this time of year.

[Ntxw]

Yeah needless to say I'm gonna be mad if a foot of rain in November doesn't translate to a big snowstorm here just once

Hoping there's some truth to 13-14 at least because some of the analogs are beyond terrible floating around(like 34-35 where we just barely didn't beat on consecutive highs above 60)

If we can get the -EPO block sustained into early December it will be drastically different than the bad years. Those are ++EPO, very poor Pacific. Sometimes these stagnant patterns have staying power.

[Brent]

Yeah needless to say I'm gonna be mad if a foot of rain in November doesn't translate to a big snowstorm here just once

Hoping there's some truth to 13-14 at least because some of the analogs are beyond terrible floating around(like 34-35 where we just barely didn't beat on consecutive highs above 60)

If we can get the -EPO block sustained into early December it will be drastically different than the bad years. Those are ++EPO, very poor Pacific. Sometimes these stagnant patterns have staying power.

I will say one thing I continue to note is how it seems like there's been way more snow out west than previous years. Look at the storm coming into California right now. Colorado has been crazy already too

[Ntxw]

GFS and CMC have a pretty significant 5h set up with a broad North American trough. Classic cold dump look the weekend after Thanksgiving.

[Stratton23]

Yup, will say though the modes are still having an issue with resolving the blocking, still too weak, it might take several days before that gets corrected

[Stratton23]

GFS does drop the arctic hammer in the first week of december though lol

[Stratton23]

Easily the coldest run yet from the 00z Euro, highs in the 30’s and low 40’s

[Lagreeneyes03]

:uarrow: December 2013 comes to mind. We all know how that turned out.

Oh the cobblestone ice lol, wow that was something. Grocery stores were bare for nearly a week after that.

[Ntxw]

There's definitely an interesting period ahead starting around late next week. I wouldn't expect snow or anything this far south, but we're probably looking at an extended below normal period. Remember the standards are low, we've been so warm for so long so it would be quite an achievement.

If the baton pass is between Alaskan ridge and PNA off the coast ridge then it could be an extended cold regime to begin the first meteorological month of winter. Something we haven't said in awhile.