Texas Fall 2024

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Icon shows it getting chilly here Thursday AM:
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn%20.com/20241116/475a378d5c13dbc81a473e20bad297da.jpg

What app is this?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw agreed, for now trends need to be watched, but their does appear to be good agreement in the ensembles and the euro AIFS that cold air is going to be building in western Canada, just a question of if we will have a mechanism of dumping that cold air into the US or not, if anything this is good for building a healthy snow pack in canada for later in the winter, less modification of any arctic airmass coming down

I'm liking what they are showing, I'm just reserved given the time range. But still it does seem promising to have poleward Alaskan Ridge and trough from Aleutians to Hawaii. This typically is precursor for a cold dump.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Ntxw agreed, for now trends need to be watched, but their does appear to be good agreement in the ensembles and the euro AIFS that cold air is going to be building in western Canada, just a question of if we will have a mechanism of dumping that cold air into the US or not, if anything this is good for building a healthy snow pack in canada for later in the winter, less modification of any arctic airmass coming down

I'm liking what they are showing, I'm just reserved given the time range. But still it does seem promising to have poleward Alaskan Ridge and trough from Aleutians to Hawaii. This typically is precursor for a cold dump.

It would seem if the ao and especially the epo are forecast to go negative, then one would think it will get colder at some point. My area around jackson hasn't seen the first big frost yet. We did mid Oct get a small frost

[ElectricStorm]

Sneaky tornado setup late tonight into tomorrow morning. Not much instability but very high shear should allow the QLCS to drop a decent amount of spin ups. After 2 weeks ago we already have the November state record for tornadoes in Oklahoma with 16. 2024 is currently at #3 all time with 130 (and counting) more than double the annual average. We could make a run for the top spot if this QLCS verifies.

[Texoz]

There was a weird radar anomaly this morning, I think around 8am, probably closer to 9am.

It was a tiny dot of rain that started on the radar loop around Bastrop and moved toward San Marcos. So, moving southwestward. However, if you looked toward Houston those scattered showers were moving north. And if you looked to the west of Austin there were showers building and also moving northward, like the Houston area. This one little shower was moving counter to rain east and west of it.

[wxman22]

Sneaky tornado setup late tonight into tomorrow morning. Not much instability but very high shear should allow the QLCS to drop a decent amount of spin ups. After 2 weeks ago we already have the November state record for tornadoes in Oklahoma with 16. 2024 is currently at #3 all time with 130 (and counting) more than double the annual average. We could make a run for the top spot if this QLCS verifies.

Yep, i mentioned yesterday that OUN was a little concerned about that in their afternoon discussion. BTW the SPC has just upgraded parts of NW Texas and SW Oklahoma to an Enhanced risk for winds overnight.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...20Z Update...

...Southern Plains...
General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid,
with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to
continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more
northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system,
with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into
southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will
develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching
from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday.

Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system.
Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and
southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in
the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will
continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening,
ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface
analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in
north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans
Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for
surface low progress late this evening and overnight.

A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated,
beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this
band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the
surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic
fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the
mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward
momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite
the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability
for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z
to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with
the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the
greatest severe-wind threat.

..Mosier.. 11/17/2024

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

The severe weather threat will increase late tonight into tomorrow morning as a line of storms moves across North and Central Texas. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be the main threats.

Cooler weather is expected during the latter half of the week, but above normal temperatures will prevail during the upcoming weekend.

[Stratton23]

That potential cold air mass that the ensembles have been showing, its starting to move up in time of the models, was 12-14 days out, 18z runs have moved it up to about 10 days, so thats something

[Golfisnteasy7575]

That potential cold air mass that the ensembles have been showing, its starting to move up in time of the models, was 12-14 days out, 18z runs have moved it up to about 10 days, so thats something

Teleconnections can and will tell you alot about a pattern.

[Ntxw]

This is a good look. Even better beyond, but having some closer in is a good place to be.

[Cpv17]

This is a good look. Even better beyond, but having some closer in is a good place to be.

https://i.imgur.com/P6mLKfK.png

https://i.imgur.com/JUzWIUt.png

This is what I was trying to mention to you a couple days ago about the potential towards late month into early December. The 18z GFS lays down quite a bit of snow to our N as well.

[Ntxw]

This is a good look. Even better beyond, but having some closer in is a good place to be.

https://i.imgur.com/P6mLKfK.png

https://i.imgur.com/JUzWIUt.png

This is what I was trying to mention to you a couple days ago about the potential towards late month into early December. The 18z GFS lays down quite a bit of snow to our N as well.

I did see it, but I've been burned so many times this fall I wanted to wait for more consistency from various long range ENS. It hadn't shown a delivery mechanism just building of cold up north. There's still work yet to do.

[Cpv17]

This is a good look. Even better beyond, but having some closer in is a good place to be.

https://i.imgur.com/P6mLKfK.png

https://i.imgur.com/JUzWIUt.png

This is what I was trying to mention to you a couple days ago about the potential towards late month into early December. The 18z GFS lays down quite a bit of snow to our N as well.

I did see it, but I've been burned so many times this fall I wanted to wait for more consistency from various long range ENS. It hadn't shown a delivery mechanism just building of cold up north. There's still work yet to do.

Right now I just think there’s potential. I’m not confident enough yet to say that cold air will dislodge our way.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

This is a good look. Even better beyond, but having some closer in is a good place to be.

https://i.imgur.com/P6mLKfK.png

https://i.imgur.com/JUzWIUt.png

This is what I was trying to mention to you a couple days ago about the potential towards late month into early December. The 18z GFS lays down quite a bit of snow to our N as well.

I did see it, but I've been burned so many times this fall I wanted to wait for more consistency from various long range ENS. It hadn't shown a delivery mechanism just building of cold up north. There's still work yet to do.

If it does end up colder, could we attribute this to mjo progression?

[Ntxw]

This is what I was trying to mention to you a couple days ago about the potential towards late month into early December. The 18z GFS lays down quite a bit of snow to our N as well.

I did see it, but I've been burned so many times this fall I wanted to wait for more consistency from various long range ENS. It hadn't shown a delivery mechanism just building of cold up north. There's still work yet to do.

If it does end up colder, could we attribute this to mjo progression?

I don't believe so the MJO is not going into favorable phases until at least past the first week of December. It is about to amplify over the IO and make a slow progression through the MC.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro AIFS with the alaskan ridge in place through day 9 and a significant trough digging down into the central US, that would help to dislodge the cold air with trough hanging out west, classic se ridge and ridge over the west coast, cold air forced to come due south

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I did see it, but I've been burned so many times this fall I wanted to wait for more consistency from various long range ENS. It hadn't shown a delivery mechanism just building of cold up north. There's still work yet to do.

If it does end up colder, could we attribute this to mjo progression?

I don't believe so the MJO is not going into favorable phases until at least past the first week of December. It is about to amplify over the IO and make a slow progression through the MC.

It could be that typically a +qbo and higher solar promotes more ridging over Alaska and Greenland from what I understand

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Lol I saw 42 for a high Thursday and now it's 56

How can the models be so wrong. Like I really didn't think we'd be cold enough for wintry anyway but I hope this isn't gonna be a thing all winter

Modeled cold is not the same as real ground conditions up north. When it's in the 20s and 30s in the flat lands of W-central and N-central Canada why would we be just as cold when it moderates going south and warms downsloping? The math just doesn't work.

Question about the downsloping. Are you saying that the slope down from say Amarillo to Dallas/Houston causes the air to warm/dry out more than normal, due to the decrease in altitude?
I ask because I noticed here in Denver, the air INCREASES in humidity when we have a solid cold front from the north. Now, the air coming from the NE increases in altitude here, increasing condensation and moisture, (that wind is our big snow maker,) but I never thought of it being such a big deal in Texas but it makes sense. NM/TX border is around 5k ft. Dallas is much much lower.

[Ntxw]

Lol I saw 42 for a high Thursday and now it's 56

How can the models be so wrong. Like I really didn't think we'd be cold enough for wintry anyway but I hope this isn't gonna be a thing all winter

Modeled cold is not the same as real ground conditions up north. When it's in the 20s and 30s in the flat lands of W-central and N-central Canada why would we be just as cold when it moderates going south and warms downsloping? The math just doesn't work.

Question about the downsloping. Are you saying that the slope down from say Amarillo to Dallas/Houston causes the air to warm/dry out more than normal, due to the decrease in altitude?
I ask because I noticed here in Denver, the air INCREASES in humidity when we have a solid cold front from the north. Now, the air coming from the NE increases in altitude here, increasing condensation and moisture, (that wind is our big snow maker,) but I never thought of it being such a big deal in Texas but it makes sense. NM/TX border is around 5k ft. Dallas is much much lower.

Yes, adiabatic warming is a thing when air is moving from the Plains towards the coastal plains of Texas. Even central-west parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and eastern Montana can be 2k+ feet up before it gets to Dallas and Houston. I've seen it mentioned many times in WFO AFDs. Now don't ask me how much is contributed between latitude warming vs altitude . That's beyond something I've delved into, but there is a relationship the same way cold beats models going downhill speed-wise.

[Stratton23]

00z ICON goes out 180 hours, but it has the arctic airmass getting dislodged and entering the northern US, run ends with arctic front just entering kansas with much colder air behind it