Texas Fall 2024

[Brent]

Lol I saw 42 for a high Thursday and now it's 56

How can the models be so wrong. Like I really didn't think we'd be cold enough for wintry anyway but I hope this isn't gonna be a thing all winter

[Ntxw]

Still looks like the end of november and into early december, their could be a major pattern change, we will see

The MJO is not going into favorable phases the beginning of December.

[Ntxw]

Lol I saw 42 for a high Thursday and now it's 56

How can the models be so wrong. Like I really didn't think we'd be cold enough for wintry anyway but I hope this isn't gonna be a thing all winter

Modeled cold is not the same as real ground conditions up north. When it's in the 20s and 30s in the flat lands of W-central and N-central Canada why would we be just as cold when it moderates going south and warms downsloping? The math just doesn't work.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx of course it isnt, not even surprising

[Ntxw]

Usually you need the cold to build first, that's the initial ingredient. I've been burned by this many times over the years and have made a focus to learn from it, delivery pattern (as good as they are) is only a piece. We have a good delivery pattern with -NAO but it isn't yet all that cold up north. Will have to watch late November if the TPV can settle on our side of the globe and then chunks of it breaks off. -EPO/WPO definitely will help from moderating it.

Don't get me wrong, it's beautiful out there!

[Stratton23]

The euro AIFS continues to advertise a shot of arctic air intruding the US at day 10, but it still is just an outlier model, big suck pattern for the foreseeable future, yawn.

[wxman22]

Don't sleep on the storm coming...Instability is low but with the strong low level shear in place there is a possibility of over performance with Mondays storm.(A low CAPE High Shear setup).OUN's discussion this afternoon was very informative about the potential scenarios.Bears watching.

In a nutshell, be prepared for a busy Monday morning. Best case
scenario, showers will produce heavy rainfall and will make the
Monday morning commutes a slow one. Worst case scenario, a squall
line with swaths of damaging wind and QLCS tornadoes would be
pushing through nearly the same time. CAPE values are relatively
low, with most areas progged with 300-600 J/Kg values. The wind
shear however, is impressive...with 0-6 Km shear in the 40-50 knot
range, along with SRH of 300-500 m2/s2. In other words, early May
type values being projected by the numerical models.

Weirdness factor #1 for the geeks in the crowd: Ignore the lure of
low numbers part 1.
SPC outlooks have a 2% and a 5% tornado outlooks in SW Oklahoma
and all of our north Texas counties. These numbers seem small, but
are highly anomalous for mid November. These probabilities are
the same (or higher) than the system which came through on
November 2-3.

Weirdness factor #2 for the geeks in the crowd: Ignore the lure
of low numbers part 2.
If you are one of those people that want to
see the CAPE values and associated parameters...don`t be fooled.
Most Unstable CAPE parameters are currently progged to be around
300 to maybe 1000 J/Kg. If this were April or May, the CAPE
bullies would be laughing at these numbers. For this event, with
the amount of low level instability and shear, it may be enough.
In fact, if the numerical models are underplaying the instability
even a small bit, this current forecast may be underplaying things
a bit. Some of the NSSL CAMs are beginning to pick up on slightly
higher levels of instability with this afternoon`s runs. Will
continue to monitor in subsequent shifts.

Weirdness factor #3 for the geeks in the crowd: Ignore the
calendar.
Yes, it is November. Numerous tornadoes have occurred in
Oklahoma...in 2015,2018,2020,2021,2022, and in 2024.

Fox

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... roduct=AFD

[jasons2k]

Icon shows it getting chilly here Thursday AM:

[Stratton23]

If their is any good news, La nina is on its death bed, and i mean it is barely hanging on, hopefully a transition to more enso neutral conditions occurs later in the winter

[Stratton23]

18z Euro AIFS at days 8-10 looks like it tries to stretch the PV and bring a piece of the LOBE more over on the NA side of the globe , cold air moving into US day 9

[Stratton23]

GFS 00z starting to show what the Euro AIFS shows, interesting

[CaptinCrunch]

If their is any good news, La nina is on its death bed, and i mean it is barely hanging on, hopefully a transition to more enso neutral conditions occurs later in the winter

Technically La Nina hasn't fully evolved yet. Not a single NINO region has gotten to -.05 for 3 consecutive months, and current SST's have all 4 NINO regions above -.05 and have been consistently. For all practical purposes we have been in ENSO neutral conditions for some time and may stay here till El Nino surfaces late spring.

NOAA still beating the 60% chance on La Nina conditions but we have past their expected start date for La Nina. The warmer than normal global temperatures have certainly hindered La Nina development.

[gpsnowman]

I'm thinking shorts for Thanksgiving unfortunately. East Texas always runs cooler than DFW but I don't think it will be much of a difference. It will feel like April while smoking the turkey. Perhaps my friend Shiner will keep me cool. I'll ask him.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm thinking shorts for Thanksgiving unfortunately. East Texas always runs cooler than DFW but I don't think it will be much of a difference. It will feel like April while smoking the turkey. Perhaps my friend Shiner will keep me cool. I'll ask him.

It's a muggy Fall morning that feels more like Spring. Unfortunately I agree with shorts for Thanksgiving. I'm smoking a turkey and a ham so I just want a pleasant rain free day.

[Brent]

TWC has no freezes through the end of the month wow

That would be our latest freeze on record if its not til December

Kind of ridiculous we hit 33 in October and can't beat that. I don't know what's going on anymore. At this point I expect a torch for Thanksgiving. Long range is never right when it shows cold

[Stratton23]

I dont expect a torch for thanksgiving lol, near average at most , not talking about cold specially, but more so that models like the GFS / Euro AIFS are swinging a piece of the tropospheric PV around and dropping it down on the NA side of the world in 8-9 days, we will see if that has any down stream effects in the longer term

[Ntxw]

After our cool down to slightly below to near normal midweek, the ensembles show a spike in warm anomalies for the southern plains. Remember by late November for DFW low 60s is becoming normal, so upper 60s and especially 70s is close to pushing 10F+. For Tulsa mid 50s is about normal for highs with mid 30s for lows.

That's the lead up to Thanksgivings which right now is too far out to consider one way or the other. GEFS has some slight cool anomalies, while the EPS has elevated ridging heights for the date.

[Stratton23]

EPS trending cooler for thanksgiving, no shorts weather, i absolutely forbid it!

[Ntxw]

EPS trending cooler for thanksgiving, no shorts weather, i absolutely forbid it!

They do show a favorable 5h configuration out west, with cold air in W-Can post-TG. We'll have to see future runs, if it's a little faster maybe for TG but if not will have to wait till after.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw agreed, for now trends need to be watched, but their does appear to be good agreement in the ensembles and the euro AIFS that cold air is going to be building in western Canada, just a question of if we will have a mechanism of dumping that cold air into the US or not, if anything this is good for building a healthy snow pack in canada for later in the winter, less modification of any arctic airmass coming down