Texas Fall 2024

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Eric Webb mentions what your saying on Twitter or something similar. We should be colder if the alutian ridge can be poleward. If it's flat, it will not help us to get cold at all. Mjo in colder phases should help also. Ultimately, it comes down to timing regardless of the pattern.

Yeah the marine heatwave is getting old. All it has been doing is magnifying the Pacific jet flooding North America with warmth and stagnation. We need to buckle the Pacific jet stream.

So what started this process to begin with?

[Brent]

That Euro run was close here Wednesday night as the cold air floods in. A lot of wind too. Not sure we're quite cold enough though

That setup in a month or two would be something else

[Stratton23]

Eric Webb mentioned something about a -EPO/ + TNH type winter

[Ntxw]

Eric Webb mentions what your saying on Twitter or something similar. We should be colder if the alutian ridge can be poleward. If it's flat, it will not help us to get cold at all. Mjo in colder phases should help also. Ultimately, it comes down to timing regardless of the pattern.

Yeah the marine heatwave is getting old. All it has been doing is magnifying the Pacific jet flooding North America with warmth and stagnation. We need to buckle the Pacific jet stream.

So what started this process to begin with?

Warming oceans coupled with the PDO natural cycle superimposed. Typically one region will warm and the other counterbalance with cold, but in this case, the cooling part couldn't and stayed elevated while the warm part got even warmer than it typically would.

[Stratton23]

GFS looks like a total crap show next week, almost no cooler air, boo

[HockeyTx82]

GFS looks like a total crap show next week, almost no cooler air, boo

Well then...... Winter Cancel!

See you all in the summer thread.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah the marine heatwave is getting old. All it has been doing is magnifying the Pacific jet flooding North America with warmth and stagnation. We need to buckle the Pacific jet stream.

So what started this process to begin with?

Warming oceans coupled with the PDO natural cycle superimposed. Typically one region will warm and the other counterbalance with cold, but in this case, the cooling part couldn't and stayed elevated while the warm part got even warmer than it typically would.

We did manage some good progress against the boiling subtropics near Japan in just one month.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sy5rQ.png


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sy5rW.png

[Brent]

Now our hype met posted about Wednesday being a wild storm with a snowflake and lightning

Lot of uncertainty still about next week

[Stratton23]

Not liking the trend of a stronger western US ridge, trough and cold air may get pushed off to the east more

[ravyrn]

Growing up just across the Sabine in River Southwest Louisiana in the 90s, I seem to recall numerous fronts during the fall months that consisted of a line of storms followed by a strong northerly wind and clear skies the following day. It doesn't really seem we've had much, if any, of those the last few years. Does anyone else remember those systems back then, and also notice, we don't really have them any more?

[Ralph's Weather]

Always nice to have a bit of frost on the way to work in the morning. My area got into the mid to upper 30s this morning.

[Gotwood]

Always nice to have a bit of frost on the way to work in the morning. My area got into the mid to upper 30s this morning.

Yeah mine too weather station had 35 IMBY

[Kirby68]

Growing up just across the Sabine in River Southwest Louisiana in the 90s, I seem to recall numerous fronts during the fall months that consisted of a line of storms followed by a strong northerly wind and clear skies the following day. It doesn't really seem we've had much, if any, of those the last few years. Does anyone else remember those systems back then, and also notice, we don't really have them any more?

Yes. I made this exact post 6-8 weeks ago here. Grew up in north Texas 70’s and 80’s. I always remembered the strong pacific fronts blowing through in September with a line of storms and a blustery north wind following. It seems like it’s been forever since that’s happened.

[FloppaHorn]

Growing up just across the Sabine in River Southwest Louisiana in the 90s, I seem to recall numerous fronts during the fall months that consisted of a line of storms followed by a strong northerly wind and clear skies the following day. It doesn't really seem we've had much, if any, of those the last few years. Does anyone else remember those systems back then, and also notice, we don't really have them any more?

Yes. I made this exact post 6-8 weeks ago here. Grew up in north Texas 70’s and 80’s. I always remembered the strong pacific fronts blowing through in September with a line of storms and a blustery north wind following. It seems like it’s been forever since that’s happened.

I know y'all are speaking to the Pacific fronts, but I can - quite literally - see Harold Taft standing in front of one of his maps talking about a "blue norther".

[gpsnowman]

Growing up just across the Sabine in River Southwest Louisiana in the 90s, I seem to recall numerous fronts during the fall months that consisted of a line of storms followed by a strong northerly wind and clear skies the following day. It doesn't really seem we've had much, if any, of those the last few years. Does anyone else remember those systems back then, and also notice, we don't really have them any more?

Yes. I made this exact post 6-8 weeks ago here. Grew up in north Texas 70’s and 80’s. I always remembered the strong pacific fronts blowing through in September with a line of storms and a blustery north wind following. It seems like it’s been forever since that’s happened.

I know y'all are speaking to the Pacific fronts, but I can - quite literally - see Harold Taft standing in front of one of his maps talking about a "blue norther".

Harold Taft. A big reason why I fell in love with the weather when we moved back to DFW in 1984. The cold waves of January and February 1985 are still solid memories for me because of him. I remember watching him daily forecasting snow and cold. Obsessed as a child. Now I can't stop!!! During this period my father bought me a Radio Shack weather radio and I listened to all the weather conditions from around the state almost nightly before bed. Good times.

[Kirby68]

Growing up just across the Sabine in River Southwest Louisiana in the 90s, I seem to recall numerous fronts during the fall months that consisted of a line of storms followed by a strong northerly wind and clear skies the following day. It doesn't really seem we've had much, if any, of those the last few years. Does anyone else remember those systems back then, and also notice, we don't really have them any more?

Yes. I made this exact post 6-8 weeks ago here. Grew up in north Texas 70’s and 80’s. I always remembered the strong pacific fronts blowing through in September with a line of storms and a blustery north wind following. It seems like it’s been forever since that’s happened.

I know y'all are speaking to the Pacific fronts, but I can - quite literally - see Harold Taft standing in front of one of his maps talking about a "blue norther".

100%. Harold Taft is the reason I fell in love with “Weather”. I remember him saying all the fences in Kansas wouldn’t stop the blue norther coming down.

[DallasAg]

Yes. I made this exact post 6-8 weeks ago here. Grew up in north Texas 70’s and 80’s. I always remembered the strong pacific fronts blowing through in September with a line of storms and a blustery north wind following. It seems like it’s been forever since that’s happened.

I know y'all are speaking to the Pacific fronts, but I can - quite literally - see Harold Taft standing in front of one of his maps talking about a "blue norther".

Harold Taft. A big reason why I fell in love with the weather when we moved back to DFW in 1984. The cold waves of January and February 1985 are still solid memories for me because of him. I remember watching him daily forecasting snow and cold. Obsessed as a child. Now I can't stop!!! During this period my father bought me a Radio Shack weather radio and I listened to all the weather conditions from around the state almost nightly before bed. Good times.

Same! I'd be hanging on pins and needles nightly to see his "this day in weather history" factoid. Lake Worth freezing over, heat burst frying corn fields near Waco, recounting his take on watching the 1957 Dallas tornado from Ft. Worth. His truisms like "a drought ends in a flood and a flood ends in a drought", "32 degrees is the freezing point of water but also the melting point of ice". I became a weather nerd because of him.

I must've read his book (https://www.amazon.com/Texas-weather-Ha ... B0006W5QVK) cover to cover 1,000 times.

I was a soph in college when he died...I remember feeling a genuine sense of loss.

[Ntxw]

The GFS looks about near normal temps with the cold front...

That's hardly impressive, but the bar is low. You can find cold air 300 hours out though to the north.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw ensembles actually agree on arctic air building in NW canada in the longer range, however it doesn’t appear their will be any mechanism in place to dislodge that cold air, really unfortunate

[Iceresistance]

Ntxw ensembles actually agree on arctic air building in NW canada in the longer range, however it doesn’t appear their will be any mechanism in place to dislodge that cold air, really unfortunate

But it will keep building if the pattern permits