Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

20-27/28th ish,blocking looks to keep the cold air trapped in place for at least a week

[vbhoutex]

As much as I know about weather and patterns, I am having a hard time buying into this, even though we are far past the "normal" changeover to fall. An average high of 90.7F so far for this month!! Are you kidding me? I hope the current forecasting for this event is correct and will bring on a true changeover!

[Brent]

There's a few EPS members with some snow here next weekend

[Iceresistance]

What time period are we talking about?

The week before Thanksgiving

[Brent]

GFS is snowing next Thursday night here

[Stratton23]

Both the 12z GFS and CMC want to bring snow to north and east texas with the trough really digging deep down into mexico

[Brent]

Both the GFS and CMC have accumulating snow

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Keep showing a hurricane in the gulf, the models are awfully close to having this massive trough in the US merge with this hurricane. Still long range but holy moly.

[mmmmsnouts]

Keep showing a hurricane in the gulf, the models are awfully close to having this massive trough in the US merge with this hurricane. Still long range but holy moly.

My Florida friends are already losing their minds about that. I am trying to tell them how wildly unlikely a Cat 3 in that position would be at this point in the season and they’re not having any of it.

[Stratton23]

GFS 18z GFS keeps the blocking pattern in place for 2 weeks, with another cold air mass building in NW canada behind late next weeks big cold blast

[Ntxw]

GFS 18z GFS keeps the blocking pattern in place for 2 weeks, with another cold air mass building in NW canada behind late next weeks big cold blast

That run is a thing of beauty, please be real, take that in a heartbeat. Would love to see a good start to winter.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw I would too! But hopefully not a precursor for a front loaded winter, id hate to waste all the cold in the first half lol

[Brent]

More mets mentioning the S word here

[Ntxw]

Moral of the story here is the delivery pattern looks like it will provide us with meaningful cold season fronts rather than just brief cool spell. Quality of the cold air will determine how significant it is.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Moral of the story here is the delivery pattern looks like it will provide us with meaningful cold season fronts rather than just brief cool spell. Quality of the cold air will determine how significant it is.

I think it is determined by the epo/wpo. If they are negative, then we have a reason to get excited imo

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I personally think the 06z is more likely. I think the highs will merge over the top of the poles and really lock in the low over the CONUS. I dont see how both highs can be so close to each other over the poles and not merge, which is what many of the models are showing.

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD already talking about it

The rain should end from west to east Monday night and into
Tuesday as the upper support shifts northeast of the area, but
another system will quickly follow on its heels mid week. The
evolution of this system is the one to watch, with a few model
solutions supporting some potential for winter weather mid to late
week. Plenty of uncertainty regarding that system`s evolution
continue to exist, but it bears watching.

[Gotwood]

I’ll believe the cold when I see it.

[Stratton23]

Its coming, thats 100% for certain, just a question of how cold

[Gotwood]

Its coming, thats 100% for certain, just a question of how cold

GFS has backed off cold here looks like seasonal temps.