Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1855969286021402978

[underthwx]

Looking at the 850 vorticity on the models it looks like this area gets drawn into the CAG to help spark genesis. Nice sharp trough. Pretty unusual to have two majors in the Atlantic Basin in Nov.

https://i.imgur.com/UoIXicJ.gif

Unfortunately not impossible tho. How long will this keep up?

[toad strangler]

I'd like to think that whatever comes of this goes much further S & E than what the 6z GFS shows. (Sorry Cuba) The 0z Euro is more believable when factoring in climo. But I know, 2024 could just decide to do 2024.

[SFLcane]

I'd like to think that whatever comes of this goes much further S & E than what the 6z GFS shows. (Sorry Cuba) The 0z Euro is more believable when factoring in climo. But I know, 2024 could just decide to do 2024.

meh, climo and 2024 don't go together when you got west moving hurricanes in the gulf in early Nov. We are acting more like early/mid Oct if anything.

[xironman]

Looking at the 850 vorticity on the models it looks like this area gets drawn into the CAG to help spark genesis. Nice sharp trough. Pretty unusual to have two majors in the Atlantic Basin in Nov.

https://i.imgur.com/UoIXicJ.gif

Unfortunately not impossible tho. How long will this keep up?

I don't know, but if it was September there would be a lot more conversation on this one. I think we may see a hint at a recon flight on Wednesday today.

[aspen]

Even the strongest model runs like the 12z GFS and 00z Euro have genesis take place very close to Central America as the disturbance rotates within a broader gyre. Any slight difference in this setup could mean the difference between a gyre dying over land or a strong TC developing. Could get another Nadine or another Rafael out of this.

[Michele B]

Here's a list of hurricanes which have made landfall in southern Florida from the west in November/December:
*

No that's not a typo, there is no historical precedence for this. The only thing close would be Kate 1985, which made landfall in the Panhandle as a cat 2. Despite all of the craziness so far this season such as Beryl and Milton, this potential late-season November hurricane might end up becoming the most anomalous storm of the season.

Would have never believed anything could beat Beryl or Milton, yet here we are!

[Kazmit]

You'd think there would be some more discussion on this one given its potential threat to FL. Guess most people are tapped out for the season, hope they aren't in for a nasty surprise.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS looks nearly identical to the 00Z Euro track:

[Jr0d]

12Z GFS looks nearly identical to the 00Z Euro track:

https://i.postimg.cc/Qdf0k87P/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-fh78-252.gif

Still 10 days out... hopefully the old saying that the safest spot is where the models show a storm going 10 days + out.

We just narrowly missed a big impact from Rafael in the Keys for the 4th near miss of the season. One would think by now the season would be shut down above the 23°N but this season has been thrown climatology out the window.

[wzrgirl1]

You'd think there would be some more discussion on this one given its potential threat to FL. Guess most people are tapped out for the season, hope they aren't in for a nasty surprise.

Trust me, that discussion is not too far off. Another day or two and I surmise this joint will be jumpin'.

[cycloneye]

You'd think there would be some more discussion on this one given its potential threat to FL. Guess most people are tapped out for the season, hope they aren't in for a nasty surprise.

Things will pick up on more discussions as soon it goes up with high chance and especially, when it is tagged as invest.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of
Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a
tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form
late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

I am looking at the 12z European and it goes bonkers, but can't post graphic because is paid site.

[cycloneye]

I am looking at the 12z European and it goes bonkers, but can't post graphic because is paid site.

This from pivotal site that can post.

[SFLcane]

I am looking at the 12z European and it goes bonkers, but can't post graphic because is paid site.

A major hurricane that never makes it out of the carib.

[cycloneye]

Run from 72 hours to 240 hours.

[underthwx]

Looking at the 850 vorticity on the models it looks like this area gets drawn into the CAG to help spark genesis. Nice sharp trough. Pretty unusual to have two majors in the Atlantic Basin in Nov.

https://i.imgur.com/UoIXicJ.gif

Unfortunately not impossible tho. How long will this keep up?

I don't know, but if it was September there would be a lot more conversation on this one. I think we may see a hint at a recon flight on Wednesday today.

https://i.imgur.com/gKDiyxo.gif

Yeah, I think so too. Another one to watch for sure.

[toad strangler]

I am looking at the 12z European and it goes bonkers, but can't post graphic because is paid site.

A major hurricane that never makes it out of the carib.

Isn't that where they BELONG this time of year

[weeniepatrol]

11 November or 11 September? You be the judge.