Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 they are over doing it , most of the warmth is going to be focusing in the eastern US due to a stout SE ridge, im looking at ensembles, and i see nothing remotely close to a torch for texas

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 they are over doing it , most of the warmth is going to be focusing in the eastern US due to a stout SE ridge, im looking at ensembles, and i see nothing remotely close to a torch for texas

I really don’t see anything cold coming anytime soon. Maybe seasonal to above average.

[Brent]

19 inches of snow in Denver. I don't remember that happening so early in awhile

I got a feeling when it flips its gonna be a huge flip even if it's December before it does

[CaptinCrunch]

19 inches of snow in Denver. I don't remember that happening so early in awhile

I got a feeling when it flips its gonna be a huge flip even if it's December before it does

Buddy of mine lives in Colorado Springs and he said they had a foot of dry power. It's the most he's seen this early since moving back 2 yrs ago. But he also said they had the perfect setup for it, so it was definitely not the norm.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 242 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

Zonal flow aloft will prevail through the extended forecast
period, leading to unwavering sensible weather through most of the upcoming week. A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped to our southeast, with low-level flow heavily influenced by the wandering Rafael in the western Gulf. This tropical cyclone will maintain predominantly offshore flow heading into the workweek, preventing noteworthy moisture return. As a result, by the time the next Central Plains
shortwave arrives on Wednesday, moisture quality locally will be too scant to support precipitation, and a dry passage of its associated weak cold front likely. The low rain chances previously in the forecast for midweek have been fully removed with this morning`s forecast issuance.

Otherwise, a slow moderation of temperatures can be expected through the extended forecast, with highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Wednesday`s weak cold frontal passage will only knock a few degrees off of highs, with a lack of appreciably cooler post-frontal air present. Temperatures should easily remain above seasonal normals, with fairly light winds and no appreciable rain chances until at least next weekend.

[Stratton23]

noaa 6-10 / 8-14 day outlook keep the southern plains busy

[Stratton23]

Active pattern continues for the next 2 weeks or so, potentially much chiller the week of thanksgiving, we will see

[Brent]

Right on cue a met up here talking about a snowy winter if this pattern continues

Wettest week in 50 years here apparently

[kassi]

Has anyone heard from sphelps8681? Just north of Beaumont, in the Lumberton area, they got a foot of rain overnight with parts getting 16". There were high water rescues going on. It's crazy as the heavy rain just sat over the same areas for hours and hours and hours. I'm maybe 10 miles away and only got a couple of inches.

Part of I-10 in Jefferson County was closed for several hours.

[Stratton23]

Brent thats pretty bold for them to say that lol, but if we keep seeing an active storm track like this, i could see that verifying , meanwhile the GFS continues to advertise an EPO tank approaching thanksgiving

[Brent]

Brent thats pretty bold for them to say that lol, but if we keep seeing an active storm track like this, i could see that verifying , meanwhile the GFS continues to advertise an EPO tank approaching thanksgiving

He's always been a bit crazy with predictions tbh well see but I'm definitely a skeptic after the last two winters

[Stratton23]

Next FROPA looks to occur around the 18th, and thats the one that could kick start a switch to a much colder regime heading into thanksgiving, nothing like a warm turkey, pumpkin pie and cold weather!

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Brent thats pretty bold for them to say that lol, but if we keep seeing an active storm track like this, i could see that verifying , meanwhile the GFS continues to advertise an EPO tank approaching thanksgiving

Pay attention to the euro stuff because they have a good record compared to the gfs imo. When euro ens show any teleconnections favoring cold, it's a good chance it gets cold

[Brent]

Seeing Dallas mets talking about "chilly" air leading into Thanksgiving week

[mmmmsnouts]

At least it seems plausible to get genuinely chilly weather when the front comes through on a 70 degree day instead of an 88 degree day.

[Ntxw]

The Pacific may look better in about 10 days. A poleward NPAC ridge would allow cold air to build in the source region.

[Stratton23]

GFS with a 1052 high coming out of canada , EPO tanks, “ coldest” run” highs in the mid 40’s to low 50’s across all of texas

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The Pacific may look better in about 10 days. A poleward NPAC ridge would allow cold air to build in the source region.

That's what we want to see is a poleward npac ridge instead of flat this winter. I like our chances if we can get that at times. 12zgfs was a pretty cold run.

[Stratton23]

Looking at the past few GEFS runs including the 12z today, the trend has been toward a more poleward extension of the NPAC Ridge into Alaska, not seeing the trough there anymore on the 12z run, i have moderate confidence (60%) that much colder weather will be coming just in time for thanksgiving or just before it

[Brent]

There is a clear front a week before Thanksgiving showing up here... Nothing crazy(I mean it's November now) but something to watch