Dr Gray's verification report for the 2003 season

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 3/nov2003/

It is a long report that you may have to read it slowly as it explains in detail all of what happened in the 2003 hurricane season and the doc is happy with his forecast this year.

[Anonymous]

I give Dr. Gray credit!

[AussieMark]

here is an extract that some may find interesting.

Special Characteristics of the 2003 Hurricane Season

<LI>Ana became the first tropical cyclone on record to form in the Atlantic basin in April.</LI>

<LI>A very active early season. Four named storms formed by July 17. Since 1950, the only years that have already had their fourth named storm by this early in the season were 1959 and 1997.</LI>

<LI>14 named storms formed this year. The only years since 1950 with more named storms forming were 1969 (17 NS), 1995 (19 NS), and 2001 (15 NS).</LI>

<LI>An extraordinary number of intense hurricane days (17 IHD). Only 1961 (20.75 IHD) has had more intense hurricane days than this year.</LI>

<LI>Isabel was the first landfalling East Coast hurricane since Floyd (1999). It has now been seven years since an intense hurricane struck the East Coast of the United States. The last storm to do so was Fran (1996).</LI>

<LI>Isabel was the longest lived intense hurricane (8 IHD) since Luis (1995 - also 8 IHD).</LI>

<LI>The remarkable longevity of Fabian (7.5 IHD) and Isabel (8 IHD) as intense hurricanes. Since 1900, there has never been a year where two storms have each compiled greater than 6 intense hurricane days.</LI>

<LI>Isabel reached Category 5 status on September 11. It is the first system in the Atlantic to be classified as a Category 5 hurricane since Mitch (1998).</LI>

<LI>A very active September. The observed September NTC value (94) was the third highest on record, trailing only 1961 (141) and 1950 (98).</LI>

<LI>A generally active season. The observed seasonal NTC of 168 places this year in 7th place for the largest NTC value since 1950.</LI>

<LI>An intense hurricane formed in October (Kate). We have now had an intense hurricane in October in 6 of the last 9 years (since 1995). In the 18 years preceeding 1995, only one October intense hurricane was observed.</LI>

<LI>Despite a near-record number of intense hurricane days in September, we observed the fewest September hurricanes (3) since 1999.</LI>

<LI>Isabel and Fabian alone accounted for nearly 100 NTC units.</LI>

[Anonymous]

Erika was redesignated as a hurricane in the post-storm analysis.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003atlan.shtml

[ColdFront77]

"Erika Preliminary Report Up=It was a hurricane after all"