WPAC: TORAJI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Former 91W rebranded

92W.INVEST

WP, 92, 2024110700, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1449E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Hayabusa]

EPS 18Z

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 080100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080100Z-080600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07NOV24 1800Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.6N 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N
139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 071833Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS WRAPPING
TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.2N 174.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 168.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.1N
156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY
BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1). AND
1.B.(3).//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

92W INVEST 241108 0000 15.0N 139.1E WPAC 15 1008

[Hayabusa]

Euro 00z develops to TS

[dexterlabio]

^And now the GFS too...but I don't know, models were quite bearish with Yinxing but it managed to become a Cat4 super typhoon. It's definitely that time of the year again in this side of the world.

[underthwx]

^And now the GFS too...but I don't know, models were quite bearish with Yinxing but it managed to become a Cat4 super typhoon. It's definitely that time of the year again in this side of the world.

I dunno yall. This one has me uneasy, as the early runs are showing this affecting the central Phillipines? Is that correct?.

[Hayabusa]

^And now the GFS too...but I don't know, models were quite bearish with Yinxing but it managed to become a Cat4 super typhoon. It's definitely that time of the year again in this side of the world.

I dunno yall. This one has me uneasy, as the early runs are showing this affecting the central Phillipines? Is that correct?.

Models are trending to a stronger system, latest GFS 12z has a minimal typhoon landfall over north-central Luzon basically similar to landfall location of Trami (Kristine)

[underthwx]

^And now the GFS too...but I don't know, models were quite bearish with Yinxing but it managed to become a Cat4 super typhoon. It's definitely that time of the year again in this side of the world.

I dunno yall. This one has me uneasy, as the early runs are showing this affecting the central Phillipines? Is that correct?.

Models are trending to a stronger system, latest GFS 12z has a minimal typhoon landfall over north-central Luzon basically similar to landfall location of Trami (Kristine)

Thanks Hayabusa

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The latest GFS is... brutal. This (Future Toraji/Nika) blows up much stronger than the previous run then strikes Central Luzon. She's followed by an even stronger major typhoon.

A November with multiple typhoon-strength hits? This feels like 2006 all over again.

[underthwx]

The latest GFS is... brutal. This (Future Toraji/Nika) blows up much stronger than the previous run then strikes Central Luzon. She's followed by an even stronger major typhoon.

A November with multiple typhoon-strength hits? This feels like 2006 all over again.

That thought entered my mind as well, we shall soon see what evolves.

[Hayabusa]

JMA TC warning

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎081800
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎081800UTC ‎14.5N ‎134.9E ‎POOR
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎1008HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎090600UTC ‎14.4N ‎131.3E ‎55NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎17KT
PRES ‎ ‎1004HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
24HF ‎ ‎091800UTC ‎14.7N ‎129.0E ‎70NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎1002HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎101800UTC ‎15.6N ‎124.3E ‎110NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
72HF ‎ ‎111800UTC ‎16.7N ‎120.1E ‎140NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
96HF ‎ ‎121800UTC ‎17.8N ‎117.4E ‎180NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
120HF ‎131800UTC ‎18.8N ‎114.8E ‎240NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT ‎=

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 082000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082000Z-090600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080851ZNOV2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 08NOV24 1200Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.4N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.3N 165.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULEJONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LLC. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS
MORE OF A CUSP FEATURE THAN A TRUE CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER THE
LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION CENTER
EMERGING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93W
AND GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5N 139.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 781 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 080949Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA
OF FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING AND A PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A
MORE SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE AREA ARE DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AROUND THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (92W), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
INDICATING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A STABLE
WESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.0N 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

An Invest with a CDO

[dexterlabio]

The latest GFS is... brutal. This (Future Toraji/Nika) blows up much stronger than the previous run then strikes Central Luzon. She's followed by an even stronger major typhoon.

A November with multiple typhoon-strength hits? This feels like 2006 all over again.

What's bewildering is the fact that the Western Pacific is currently in the suppressed phase of MJO. If the pulse swings back to this area perhaps by next month, who knows what will happen.

As for 92W, since yesterday I've been sensing some kind of Noru 2022 situation from it...initially forecast to be a weak TS at best

[mrbagyo]

92W has that classic WPAC pinhole popper look, I think this has a good shot at ERI

[Hayabusa]

Jtwc tcfa

[dexterlabio]

Interested to see what the current MW imagery will show

[dexterlabio]

Now Tropical Storm Toraji