ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Looks like Rafaela is looking for the narrowest point to get to the GOM

[Buck]

Looks like he's trying to visit Havana from the south.

[hipshot]

Looks like he's trying to visit Havana from the south.

IIRC, the west end of Cuba is pretty flat and being pretty narrow, it isn't going to affect Rafael much so I won't look for much change in the
intensity due to the land interaction. JM2C

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I don't like how the cone takes the storm to the western Gulf again...Texas landfall in November? Sure, why not?

[TomballEd]

I don't like how the cone takes the storm to the western Gulf again...Texas landfall in November? Sure, why not?

Probably as a remnant low, or even an open trough, with rain W of the wave axis. Worst case would seem a low end TS.

[Pasmorade]

Shocking to see how Rafael's intensified in a day.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the plane finds a cat 3.

[ConvergenceZone]

Poor Cuba Thank Goodness the USA mainland won't have to worry about this monster, aside from some rain activity, if there's any convection left that is.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

956.0 extrap, very pronounced double wind maxima with FL winds down to Cat 1 strength. The drop in pressure and clear eye before are strong evidence that this was a Cat 3 maybe 2 hours ago, but will the NHC upgrade operationally or do it in post?

[Pasmorade]

Location: 22.0°N 82.3°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[xironman]

97 kt flight level. Could be other areas that would make it. Possible cat 3 call

Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 187° at 97 kts (From the S at 111.6 mph)

[GCANE]

Damn, CAPE has really popped in the mid / south GOM. Seeing 4500

[xironman]

Location: 22.0°N 82.3°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Well there you are

[GCANE]

Looks like this is trending for Rafael to track west in the mid GoM, make a 180 and the track back east in the mid GoM.
Also, trend is for this to under an anti-cyclone.

[Woofde]

Still stronger than last recon pass, at Major strength or just at the cusp. It seems like its going through a EWRC, there's a solid double wind maxima and satellite degradation supports this. This would be good timing for Cubans, it might not have time to clean itself up before landfall.

[WaveBreaking]

With this advisory, Rafael is now the 5th major hurricane of this absolutely insane season.

[ConvergenceZone]

With this advisory, Rafael is now the 5th major hurricane of this absolutely insane season.

Not to mention in only about 6 months, we will already be ready to enter the 2025 season lol. crazy.

[Travorum]

This SAR pass from 7 hours ago shows the double wind maximum when it was starting to develop:

[aspen]

Given the rate of intensification when recon left this morning, data from this afternoon’s passes, and the evolution of its satellite presentation, I think Rafael may have peaked at 105 kt (maybe 110 kt) and 954-952mb around 15-16z today.

The combo of the EWRC and land interaction should cripple the storm as it makes landfall. You can already see convection warming on IR and “softening” on visible. While the wind field will be larger, max winds and gusts may be lower and harder to translate to the surface. After Cuba, I imagine it’ll have a harder time recovering than the hurricane models have suggested.