ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Recon is showing a possible second wind maxima on the east side, which corresponds with structures seen on IR imagery. Peak FL of just over 90 kt. I think we’ll see Rafael level off for a bit as it sorts out whatever’s going on under the hood.

Update: 964.4mb extrap

[xironman]

Mesos starting to race around the eye

[Teban54]

Pretty dramatic improvement in this loop:

[xironman]

94 kt flight level. Still slowly intensifying. Good chance we get a cat 3 with this afternoons flight

[WaveBreaking]

Rare sight for November

[REDHurricane]

94 kt flight level. Still slowly intensifying. Good chance we get a cat 3 with this afternoons flight

Now that the eye is mostly cleared out (only took, what, like 3-4 hours?), intensification could speed up considerably until it makes landfall -- cat 4 doesn't even seem out of the question at this point

[WaveBreaking]

94 kt flight level. Still slowly intensifying. Good chance we get a cat 3 with this afternoons flight

Now that the eye is mostly cleared out (only took, what, like 3-4 hours?), intensification could speed up considerably until it makes landfall -- cat 4 doesn't even seem out of the question at this point

The eye has recently been throwing out quite a few VHTs and is pretty small. If Rafael got over that banding problem from last night, then it could definitely make a run for cat 4 before it hits Cuba.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye really starting to warm...

IMHO, ~110 knots at landfall in Cuba.

[tropicwatch]

Incredible pressure drop during the night. Was this forecast by any of the models?

[WaveBreaking]

Incredible pressure drop during the night. Was this forecast by any of the models?

Both HAFS models were hinting at this happening on some runs

[kevin]

Now that the eye is clearing, raw T# have gone up to 5.8. If winds match up to this IR presentation in the coming hours before recon arrives, Rafael could be at ~110 kt. Even if it doesn't reach that level in the coming hours, it seems very realistic that we will soon have the 5th major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season.

[WaveBreaking]

EWRC underway. Might delay/halt Rafael’s run at major hurricane status.

[aspen]

EWRC underway. Might delay/halt Rafael’s run at major hurricane status.

https://i.imgur.com/z1y6pDa.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/MHGF8bi.png

And with recon not scheduled to return until early afternoon, I think Rafael’s major peak may get missed.

[WaveBreaking]

EWRC underway. Might delay/halt Rafael’s run at major hurricane status.

https://i.imgur.com/z1y6pDa.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/MHGF8bi.png

And with recon not scheduled to return until early afternoon, I think Rafael’s major peak may get missed.

There’s still a chance they upgrade it before landfall since they have it reaching Cat 3 on the forecast. And there’s also the chance it has a secondary peak in the GOM/Bay of Campeche.

[Teban54]

EWRC underway. Might delay/halt Rafael’s run at major hurricane status.

https://i.imgur.com/z1y6pDa.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/MHGF8bi.png

Despite this, Rafael's eye is the clearest it has ever been.

[WaveBreaking]

EWRC underway. Might delay/halt Rafael’s run at major hurricane status.

https://i.imgur.com/z1y6pDa.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/MHGF8bi.png

Despite this, Rafael's eye is the clearest it has ever been.
https://i.postimg.cc/nc9MZ94r/goes16-ir-18-L-202411061242.gif

Yeah I changed my mind. I’m confident in the NHC going for Cat 3 in the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1854181499316146503

[kevin]

Looking even better now, I also expect the NHC to pull the MH trigger.

[Sciencerocks]

[FireRat]

Here we are again with yet another powerful hurricane intensifying all the way to landfall, even in NOVEMBER!!

Our 5th major is at our doorstep, and it's going to be a brutal day/night for Cuba. 2024 has been the monster we all feared it would be, but in such a bizarre way.

Rafael is rapidly intensifying too, could this even reach Cat 4? Crazy day today.