ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Wonder just how much an ERI episode for Rafael can affect the shear.

ERI?

[Beef Stew]

Rafael is looking like a hurricane well on its way to becoming a major.

[Kingarabian]

Wonder just how much an ERI episode for Rafael can affect the shear.

ERI?

Explosive Rapid Intensification.

[xironman]

Wonder just how much an ERI episode for Rafael can affect the shear.

ERI?

Explosive Rapid Intensification.

Got it, used to just RI. My guess is little, kind of the other way around. With a fully formed core and the current environment there is not telling how strong Rafael will get before Cuba. What is it like 3mb in the past hour and a half?

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

After previously being open to the West recon reported the eye weakly closed and elliptical on the last pass. Pressure is falling steadily and is down to 975, 3mb lower than the last pass. Blending the FL reduced winds with SFMR in the NE quadrant would support an intensity of 80kts. Raphael looks impressive on IR right now but it looks like the structure under the hood needs to improve a little bit before any sort of explosive intensification is on the table, although the current trend is steady to rapid intensification.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182024
A. 06/06:40:20Z
B. 20.25 deg N 081.01 deg W
C. 700 mb 2890 m
D. 975 mb
E. 160 deg 18 kt
F. CLOSED
G. E36/15/11
H. 86 kt
I. 043 deg 7 nm 06:38:30Z
J. 128 deg 88 kt
K. 042 deg 8 nm 06:38:00Z
L. 53 kt
M. 222 deg 9 nm 06:43:30Z
N. 292 deg 64 kt
O. 223 deg 11 nm 06:44:00Z
P. 8 C / 3040 m
Q. 17 C / 3049 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF301 1118A RAFAEL OB 12
MAX FL WIND 88 KT 042 / 8 NM 06:38:00Z
WEAKNESS IN EYEWALL, SW QUAD

[xironman]

It will keep to the heuristic rule that the stronger storm will go right

[xironman]

Another 3mb, should be in the 960's for the 4am.

[Travorum]

Raphael is now forecast to be nearing major hurricane status at landfall. The 4am track forecast shifts to the left but still to the right of model consensus, and the NHC acknowledges that given the divergence of track guidance further leftward adjustments may be necessary should model trends continue.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[kevin]

Dvorak is having a hard time with this system and has underestimated it so far. DPRINT went up from 82 kt to 92 kt within the last hour. That might be a bit too high, but either way I'm very curious what the next plane will find. A MH at landfall is definitely on the table with another 12 - 14 hours until landfall.

[Travorum]

090530 2038N 08116W 6963 02894 9694 +145 +103 162016 021 017 000 00
[...]
090700 2042N 08112W 6949 02932 9723 +115 //// 137073 092 086 029 01
090730 2043N 08111W 6995 02906 //// +098 //// 142089 094 053 053 05
090800 2044N 08110W 6938 03013 9838 +101 +093 141086 089 064 036 01

Extrap pressure is down to 969.4mb, and in the NE quadrant FL winds are up to 94kts (reduces to 86kts) and SFMR at 86kts. All in all firm support for 85kts.

I'm guessing this is the last pass for this recon flight but the next one is already passing the keys so it should be in the storm relatively quickly.

[aspen]

090530 2038N 08116W 6963 02894 9694 +145 +103 162016 021 017 000 00
[...]
090700 2042N 08112W 6949 02932 9723 +115 //// 137073 092 086 029 01
090730 2043N 08111W 6995 02906 //// +098 //// 142089 094 053 053 05
090800 2044N 08110W 6938 03013 9838 +101 +093 141086 089 064 036 01

Extrap pressure is down to 969.4mb, and in the NE quadrant FL winds are up to 94kts (reduces to 86kts) and SFMR at 86kts. All in all firm support for 85kts.

Wow this is intensifying a lot faster than I thought it would. Probably gonna see the 5th major of the season sometime before landfall.

[kevin]

The last two center drops support a deepening rate of about 1.6 mb/hr. As Rafael starts clearing an eye this rate could increase over the coming hours. However, even with 'just' 1.6 mb/hr the landfall intensity in ~12 hours would be 950 mb.

[aspen]

The last two center drops support a deepening rate of about 1.6 mb/hr. As Rafael starts clearing an eye this rate could increase over the coming hours. However, even with 'just' 1.6 mb/hr the landfall intensity in ~12 hours would be 950 mb.

Low 950s is the peak that several of the latest hurricane models are predicting for landfall, so I’d say that’s a safe guess for peak intensity. Not sure if it has a chance of going deeper.

[aspen]

966.4MB extrap from NOAA2. Wind field from NW to SE is very symmetric, which is a good sign for future intensification. Peak FL of ~85 kt.

[kevin]

Center drop 967 mb with 19 kt winds, supports a current intensity of 965 mb. Down 4 mb from the previous center drop about 1 hour earlier.

[aspen]

Thinking the NE-SW pass will support 85-90 kt and 962-963mb. Slim chance this is on the cusp of MH intensity by next pass. Clearly outperforming most expectations.

[kevin]

Looking very impressive.

[aspen]

NOAA2 going in for an E to W pass at a higher altitude (~3200 gpm) than last pass.

[wxman57]

Look for a major track shift today. Even the hurricane models take it no farther north than 26N. It appears Rafael will track west, staying mostly south of 25N then dissipate in SW Gulf next week. Oh, and it better not become a major or I lose the hurricane contest!