Low pressure trough near the Greater Antilles/SE Bahamas (0/0)

[Pasmorade]

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread
cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent
waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow
development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as
it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that
time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure
area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible during the next several days from the northern
Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to
eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

How's model support?

[HurricaneBelle]

Bring on the Fujiwhara action!

[cycloneye]

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread
cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent
waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow
development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as
it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that
time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure
area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible during the next several days from the northern
Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to
eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[chaser1]

Looking at the latest visible satellite and recent surface obs, it does appear that the ULL over Puerto Rico is significantly warming but more interesting is what looks like a small weak low-level rotation beginning to take place immediately north of the coast. The feature may only be transitory but appears destined to move over the D.R. in the next day or so.

[cycloneye]

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward near
the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to
be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward
across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the
southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Nimbus]

So we have an upper level low that may work down to the surface near the center where the shear is lower.
But 10% is a pretty low estimate.

[ChrisH-UK]

The setup for this on is a bit chaotic, there's a bit of a circulation at the low level already matching up with GFS now this will get pulled north east and the low in the Caribbean will pull some of it to the south west. The north east low then swings back in and along the coast of Cuba in to Florida.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

2. Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the
southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible
during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern
Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed
into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late
Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

2. Near the Southeastern Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the southeastern Bahamas
and adjacent waters. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or so while it moves westward toward Cuba and
the Bahamas. This system is expected to be absorbed into the low
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late Monday, ending
its chances of development. Regardless of formation, locally heavy
rains are possible during the next couple of days across the Greater
Antilles and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Near the Southeastern Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the southeastern
Bahamas and adjacent waters. This system is expected to be absorbed
into Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AL18) over the Caribbean
Sea by late Monday, and development before that time is no longer
anticipated. Regardless, locally heavy rains are possible during the
next couple of days across the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.