Update on winter storm, big temperature contrast....11-23-03

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. A busy day today. Low pressure of 998 millibars is now centered over northeast Iowa and heading northeast quickly. The upper level disturbance is over southwest Minnesota. Thus heavy snow is falling in Minnepolis with 1/4 mile visibility. That's heavy snow criteria at 30 degrees. Maple Grove where Jeff Morrow is reporting is down into the mid 20s with wind chills in the low to mid teens. This is as warm as it will get in Minnepolis St Paul today before temperatures take a free fall into the teens later this evening. Meanwhile Chicago is a balmy 63 degrees at the Ohare Airport. Enjoy that warmth in Chicago because that too will come to an abrupt end as the strong trailing cold front plows through the region. Also get this, Kansas City is freezing right now at 32. But St Louis is a balmy warm and almost sticky 68 degrees. The reason I say sticky is there are storms developing west of St Louis moving east towards the city. Heavy rain and some occasional lightning can be expected with this. Some storms maybe strong to severe this afternoon east of St Louis. After the cold front roara by St Louis, much colder air will build in and both Chicago and St Louis could see a dusting of snow late tonight into early Monday. There are also thunderstorms over central Lake Michigan moving east into the lower peninsula of Michigan. Expect some gusty winds and blinding rains with that briefly. Madison, Wisconsin has seen 1.5 inches of rain so far today.

In Minnepolis expect a forecast total of 8-12 inches of snow in the city today through this evening. Heavy bursts of snow with gustsy winds could create near blizzard conditions through this afternoon for the twin cities.

Meanwhile expect higher amounts of snow to fall in Duluth in Minnesota's arrowhead. 12-20 inches of snow can be expected in the Duluth area today through tomorrow morning. What will enhance the snow is not onlt the upper disturbanceand the surface low, but the lake enhanced snow courtesy of northeast winds in Duluth will result in even higher amounts in those areas. So only expected conditions to go downhill through the afternoon and evening for Minnepolis and St Paul. Improving conditions tomorrow, but brutally cold.

Another update this afternoon.

Jim

[Colin]

Again, thanks for the excellent analysis!