Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[chaser1]

Looks like if this tries to get anywhere close to the CONUS it will be ripped to shreds. If you believe shear forecasts out that far. Would fit with climo though.

I'm not so sure You're spot on in terms of the projected 200-850 wind shear forecast but I then took a look at both the 200mb & 250mb forecasts and beginning around 126 hr's, there's a building anticyclone over the NW Caribbean, southeast GOM, W. Cuba and S. Florida. In fact, I could see the potential for an extremely well-ventilated TC if aligned under that set-up. It looks to me like the GFS 6Z 180 hr. forecast has a storm north of the NW tip of Yucatan and this in concert with an upper high further east is a significant reason for that net upper-level shear. The 12Z is running now and of course I don't expect any run-to-run consistency as to where the TC will be forecast but i'd be wary of another significant South/Central Fla impact if a TC were anywhere near the W tip of Cuba around 130-180 hr's.

[chaser1]

GFS 12Z rolling and still forecasting a hurricane to form in the SW Caribbean and track toward the E. tip of Jamaica at a stronger 974 mb in 78 hr's. In fact, the time from is back to moving forward with a <1000 low forming at 54 hr's. before making the same NW turn along (or just south) of the south Cuba coastline.

[Blown Away]

12z Icon… Big shift E, still keeps it TS, might be more if not raking across Cuba…

[Jr0d]

Looks like if this tries to get anywhere close to the CONUS it will be ripped to shreds. If you believe shear forecasts out that far. Would fit with climo though.

I'm not so sure You're spot on in terms of the projected 200-850 wind shear forecast but I then took a look at both the 200mb & 250mb forecasts and beginning around 126 hr's, there's a building anticyclone over the NW Caribbean, southeast GOM, W. Cuba and S. Florida. In fact, I could see the potential for an extremely well-ventilated TC if aligned under that set-up. It looks to me like the GFS 6Z 180 hr. forecast has a storm north of the NW tip of Yucatan and this in concert with an upper high further east is a significant reason for that net upper-level shear. The 12Z is running now and of course I don't expect any run-to-run consistency as to where the TC will be forecast but i'd be wary of another significant South/Central Fla impact if a TC were anywhere near the W tip of Cuba around 130-180 hr's.

The models have suggesting an anti cyclone over Florida and the eastern Gulf for about a week now, from about November 5th and lasting for awhile....

It is something they all seem to agree on, I wasn't too concerned earlier this week because how high the error is for ULL winds are 7 days+++ out. Now its looking more likely, because of this I do think we can see a strong storm if the forecasts sre true and whatever develops can take advantage of the environment.

[chaser1]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mrjX210b/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh60-162.gif [/url]

12z Icon… Big shift E, still keeps it TS, might be more if not raking across Cuba…

12Z GFS also shifting east. 120 hr. emerging of the NW coast of Cuba and more closely matching up with the ICON recent run. Looks to me like this run may take a TC toward Cedar Key to Panama City?

[chaser1]

Wow, at 144 hr. the 500mb is showing building ridging and no sharp troughs dropping south. Maybe this'll be a threat to Louisiana with the second forming system north of P.R. approaching Fla. by the end of the cycle???

[SFLcane]

Looks like if this tries to get anywhere close to the CONUS it will be ripped to shreds. If you believe shear forecasts out that far. Would fit with climo though.

I'm not so sure You're spot on in terms of the projected 200-850 wind shear forecast but I then took a look at both the 200mb & 250mb forecasts and beginning around 126 hr's, there's a building anticyclone over the NW Caribbean, southeast GOM, W. Cuba and S. Florida. In fact, I could see the potential for an extremely well-ventilated TC if aligned under that set-up. It looks to me like the GFS 6Z 180 hr. forecast has a storm north of the NW tip of Yucatan and this in concert with an upper high further east is a significant reason for that net upper-level shear. The 12Z is running now and of course I don't expect any run-to-run consistency as to where the TC will be forecast but i'd be wary of another significant South/Central Fla impact if a TC were anywhere near the W tip of Cuba around 130-180 hr's.

hmm.. Not very likely there is a huge ridge over FL that is not going anywere for weeks. Very typical of la nina i might add cfs has desert condtions in the coming months across fl i think it might be one heck of a fire season sadly.

[chaser1]

Steering flow is beginning to look a good deal more like August than November

[xironman]

There we are

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011547
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT FRI 01 NOVEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z NOVEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13.9N 75.4W FOR 03/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[tropicwatch]

10m wind field and 925mb vorticity indicate a low might be forming.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1852373967018815749

[Jr0d]

 https://x.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1852373967018815749

I will bet 96L becomes Patty first. $10 goes to Storm2k if I am wrong.

Any takers?

[Michele B]

10m wind field and 925mb vorticity indicate a low might be forming.

https://tropicwatch.info/10mwind110120241729z.png

https://tropicwatch.info/925mb110120241500.jpg

What the H !?!?!?!?

Now there's TWO of them?!?!?!?!

Is this season ever going to end???

[blp]

Ukmet now in the GOM.

[xironman]

Finally consolidating to the far left

[TallyTracker]

10m wind field and 925mb vorticity indicate a low might be forming.

https://tropicwatch.info/10mwind110120241729z.png

https://tropicwatch.info/925mb110120241500.jpg

What the H !?!?!?!?

Now there's TWO of them?!?!?!?!

Is this season ever going to end???

There’s actually 3 areas being monitored with two at Code Orange or higher. Some model runs are hinting at another storm north of Puerto Rico in a week or so as well.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a broad
area of low pressure is forming over the southwestern Caribbean.
Additional gradual development is possible over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or
northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean including Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z GFS takes this across Jamaica, makes it a hurricane south of Cuba where it moves along the south coast then up through central Cuba before emerging in the extreme SE Gulf not far from Key West then moves west and southwest just N of the Yucatan and almost into the Bay of Campeche (where it drops to 964mb) before heading due north as it weakens into a TS into Louisiana.

[Nimbus]

Circulation off Nicaragua is pretty evident but future track is a little iffy, 18Z GFS has it in the gulf at 144 hours and that is too far out to make an accurate upper level wind steering forecast.