Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[AJC3]

Gang,

We need to stay on topic, and to not, once again, beat to death the OT critiquing/second guessing of NHC. This has become very problematic this season - OT sidebar of this type has taken over SEVERAL threads.

As has been mentioned over and over again, critiquing NHC is fine when it's germane to the thread topic. However, repeatedly bringing up your thoughts on NHC performance for previous systems is OT and needs to stop. Stick to discussing the disturbance mentioned in the topic. There is already a thread entitled 2024 Post Season Changes where you can discuss any 2024 system w/r/t NHC that your heart desires.

Admins/mods will not hesitate to delete OT posts, especially when they turn into subthreads. We don't want to issue warnings, but will if needed. Thanks in advance for staying on topic.

[Soluna16]

0z GFS is an absolute insane nightmare for Haiti. It basically stalls over or near Les Cayes for like 2 days as a Cat 4 before meandering N or NW under a building ridge.

[sasha_B]

Today's 0z deterministic GFS shows a low with TS winds forming by Nov 1st and a hurricane by the 2nd - and further out, in the 7-10 day range, shows a major hurricane (peaks at 941 hPa just south of Haiti @204 hours from initialisation - the first time the GFS has had this system go below 960 since the October 24 12z). Not reliable at that range in terms of specifics (and with a very different track from those outputs from a couple of days ago) but it's a big jump in forecast intensity compared to the last 8 or 9 runs; I suppose we'll find out tomorrow whether it's the beginning of a trend back up or just an outlier. In any case, the GFS hasn't abandoned the idea of this becoming a significant hurricane - curious to see whether the same sort of shift is reflected in the ensembles.

[xironman]

If that trough comes in negative instead of positive it would be very Sandy like.

[TheEuropean]

Up to 30%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle part of this week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible through the end
of the week as it begins to drift northward or northeastward
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

CMC simulated satelite.

[xironman]

If that trough comes in negative instead of positive it would be very Sandy like.

https://i.imgur.com/6BmIqLo.png

Hits Newfoundland as extratropical with baroclinically enhanced hurricane strength winds.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

If that trough comes in negative instead of positive it would be very Sandy like.

https://i.imgur.com/6BmIqLo.png

Hits Newfoundland as extratropical with baroclinically enhanced hurricane strength winds.

It also hits Haiti, Cuba, The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and Bermuda.

[Stormlover70]

Hits Newfoundland as extratropical with baroclinically enhanced hurricane strength winds.

It also hits Haiti, Cuba, The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and Bermuda.

Nightmare scenario for sure. Hopefully it's just a rainmaker albeit not much of that either.

[GCANE]

Conditions on Oct 30 and 31 look good for development.
A large high TPW infeed from the EPAC, across Panama will feed the vort with an anti-cyclone overhead.
Looks like this may quickly stack.
Especially as it moves north and will be on the SW side of an UL trof with tail just north of Hispaniola.
Where it heads IMHO is still up in the air.

[Stormlover70]

Conditions on Oct 30 and 31 look good for development.
A large high TPW infeed from the EPAC, across Panama will feed the vort with an anti-cyclone overhead.
Looks like this may quickly stack.
Especially as it moves north and will be on the SW side of an UL trof with tail just north of Hispaniola.
Where it heads IMHO is still up in the air.

Always love your fact based comments.

[gatorcane]

If that hurricane to the NE of this hurricane on the 06Z GFS creating a Fujiwhara effect and helping erode the Bermuda High doesn’t develop, I do wonder if this storm would make it more north and get close to if not hit Southern Florida:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some gradual development
is possible toward the end of the week and over the weekend when the
system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the
southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[ronjon]

If that hurricane to the NE of this hurricane on the 06Z GFS creating a Fujiwhara effect and helping erode the Bermuda High doesn’t develop, I do wonder if this storm would make it more north and get close to if not hit Southern Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwBwMGP4/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-41.png

The 00z Euro AI is showing this scenario although with a much weaker system. Definitely something to watch this week. If that eastern system does not develop I think the SW Caribbean system will move more north per CMC/Euro AI.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensemble. Note takes it more north and doesn’t have that hurricane off to the NE the GFS op has

[SFLcane]

[Teban54]

Euro ensembles are a bit more active now, though not as strong as GFS/GEFS:

[Blown Away]

06Z GFS ensemble. Note takes it more north and doesn’t have that hurricane off to the NE the GFS op has

https://i.postimg.cc/tCfb8Xvf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh150-258.gif

My guess is that 2nd hurricane to the NE made it easier for this AOI to pull NE quickly after Cuba…

[SFLcane]

06Z GFS ensemble. Note takes it more north and doesn’t have that hurricane off to the NE the GFS op has

https://i.postimg.cc/tCfb8Xvf/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh150-258.gif

My guess is that 2nd hurricane to the NE made it easier for this AOI to pull NE quickly after Cuba…

Unless off course that storm to the NE is bluff. Both are not going to happen i don't think.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seems likely the season has one more punch to it. Let's just hope it doesn't target Florida again.