ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[REDHurricane]

Jeff Linder in Houston just wrote Oscar off as no threat to the US. As strange as this season has been, isn't it a bit early for that? I.understand giving Houston all clear due to the cool front and dry air.
"10-19-24

Couple of tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic basin

Nadine in the western Caribbean and will move inland over Belize shortly.

Oscar near the SE Bahamas will slowly move in that area before turning NE out to sea early to mid next week.

Neither systems pose a direct threat to the US."
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/m7DiK8YhCqoBvhr5/

No, a big ULL is going to shear it apart in a few days and sweep the remnants back out into the open ocean so there's practically zero threat that Oscar will have any impacts on the continental US as a tropical system

[xironman]

Wait, what

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 70 kts (80.6 mph)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.2 mb (29.36 inHg)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1847681399748514104

[ColdMiser123]

The 73 kt flight level wind reduces to 58 kt surface equivalent since plane is flying at 850 mb. SFMR was at hurricane intensity (70 kt) though.

Unless SFMR is still deemed to be unreliable, a simple blend between the two makes 65 kt the most reasonable intensity currently.

Also have to factor that not all of the storm has been sampled yet for any special advisory.

[weeniepatrol]

Lol ok

[REDHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/xfhiw1p.gif

Yeah, I didn't want to comment earlier just in case I was being a dumb amateur weather understander in thinking this, but my first thought upon looking at pre/actual Oscar last night/this morning and seeing that was "open trough my @$$" -- yeah, appearances can sometimes be deceiving, but if it looks like a tropical storm and it talks like a tropical storm and there's no direct data proving otherwise, why not at the very least give it the PTC designation by yesterday? Seems like it should be common sense

[zzzh]

D. 991 mb
E. 125 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C3

Insane

[MarioProtVI]

D. 991 mb
E. 125 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C3

Insane

Yeah I’d just go 65 kt right now and raise the peak to 90 kt. It’s BOMBING.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1847681100514029622

[Category5Kaiju]

2024 keeps on 2024ing.

[tropicwatch]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2024
Storm Name: Oscar (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 16:38:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.33N 70.37W
B. Center Fix Location: 50 statute miles (81 km) to the E (101°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,380m (4,528ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 3kts (From the SE at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 3 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SE (133°) of center fix at 16:37:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 217° at 61kts (From the SW at 70.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SE (133°) of center fix at 16:37:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 16:39:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 73kts (From the NE at 84.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 16:40:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 16:40:00Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[zzzh]

Dual hot tower

[zal0phus]

How strong could Oscar get? The track looks Joaquin-esque, but is Joaquin-esque in strength possible?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Guess we could go 15/10/4 very soon...

Tropical Storm Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
110 PM AST Sat Oct 19 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OSCAR STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicates that
Tropical Storm Oscar is stronger than previously estimated with
maximum sustained winds of at least 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts. The minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde
observations has also fallen to 991 mb (29.26 in).

A special advisory in lieu of the standard intermediate advisory
will be issued by 2 PM AST (18 UTC).

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


NNNN

[cheezyWXguy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2024
Storm Name: Oscar (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 16:38:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.33N 70.37W
B. Center Fix Location: 50 statute miles (81 km) to the E (101°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,380m (4,528ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 3kts (From the SE at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 3 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SE (133°) of center fix at 16:37:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 217° at 61kts (From the SW at 70.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SE (133°) of center fix at 16:37:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 16:39:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 73kts (From the NE at 84.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 16:40:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 16:40:00Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

3 nautical miles? Has there ever been an eye documented outside the gulf or Caribbean that small?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

779
URNT12 KNHC 191700
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162024
A. 19/16:38:10Z
B. 21.33 deg N 070.37 deg W
C. 850 mb 1380 m
D. 991 mb
E. 125 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C3
H. 63 kt
I. 133 deg 1 nm 16:37:30Z
J. 217 deg 61 kt
K. 133 deg 1 nm 16:37:30Z
L. 70 kt
M. 301 deg 4 nm 16:39:30Z
N. 043 deg 73 kt
O. 304 deg 6 nm 16:40:00Z
P. 15 C / 1525 m
Q. 20 C / 1518 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF308 0216A OSCAR OB 03
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 304 / 6 NM 16:40:00Z
;

[zzzh]

Hurricane Beryl in 2018 had similar eye size

[aspen]

Insane this is already a hurricane and both the NHC and models nearly missed it. At least the NHC did upgrade the disturbance.

[cheezyWXguy]

Full donut of new hot towers encircling the eye now. I wonder just how strong this thing can get in the limited time it has left before shear eventually kills it.

[Travorum]

D. 991 mb
E. 125 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C3

Insane

Oscar has decided to put on a dollar store impression of Milton in lieu of the dollar store Irma its been doing for the past week.