ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[Pasmorade]

Too bad no recon, as mentioned there is no evidence of a circulation at the surface, but it does look good

https://i.imgur.com/ds0y7ru.gif

Guess the NHC begs to differ...

[USTropics]

Too bad no recon, as mentioned there is no evidence of a circulation at the surface, but it does look good

https://i.imgur.com/ds0y7ru.gif

Guess the NHC begs to differ...

TBF the recent microwave pass isn't available on NRL yet, so we didn't have this evidence (and there isn't a defined circulation yet, just evidence of one forming). The recent HWRF run is picking up a microscale circulation at the surface, and likely enough to get to Oscar if this run verifies before directional shear takes ahold in ~24 hours:

[Landy]

Uh ?

[Sciencerocks]

Uh ?
https://i.ibb.co/6wPk8Bt/2024al94-mw-89ghz-202410190556.png

I often think that some systems literally need to become hurricanes with eyes to be named. Well,

Hell, with this one I thought to myself that it would need to become a major yesterday with a crystal clear eye. lol
 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1847616862986633238

[USTropics]

Uh ?
https://i.ibb.co/6wPk8Bt/2024al94-mw-89ghz-202410190556.png

I often think that some systems literally need to become hurricanes with eyes to be named. Well,

Hell, with this one I thought to myself that it would need to become a major yesterday with a crystal clear eye. lol
https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1847616862986633238

Dear NHC: Any chance we can switch that recon mission for Nadine later today (that clearly isn't going to make it before landfall) to invest 94L?

[Pasmorade]

Will this pull a John and not be named until it's a hurricane?

[USTropics]

And just like that, NHC pulling the quick switch on meso1 to 94L:

[Landy]

Near the Southeastern Bahamas (AL94):
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located less than 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands has developed a well-defined center and continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. If the current trends continue, advisories on a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely be issued later this morning. Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba should closely monitor this system as tropical storm warnings could be required later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[USTropics]

Anndddd the Oscar for best looking Invest of 2024 goes to....94L!!

All jokes aside, I would imagine, at the very least, this is PTC worthy at 11AM.

[tolakram]

Floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

We know this did not have a circulation a little over a day ago. This is a 16 hour loop. Is this just another great looking MLC, or is there a center. I do not agree with the weenie angst on social media that this should have been named already, there was nothing there. If we can get some evidence this is real I bet it goes right to a TS if not higher.

[tolakram]

[cheezyWXguy]

We know this did not have a circulation a little over a day ago. This is a 16 hour loop. Is this just another great looking MLC, or is there a center. I do not agree with the weenie angst on social media that this should have been named already, there was nothing there. If we can get some evidence this is real I bet it goes right to a TS if not higher.

https://i.imgur.com/8ET9p5E.gif

Agreed. I was watching this on visible yesterday and tried to find evidence for an llc but really didn’t find any. Seems like dmax did its thing for this one.

[USTropics]

We know this did not have a circulation a little over a day ago. This is a 16 hour loop. Is this just another great looking MLC, or is there a center. I do not agree with the weenie angst on social media that this should have been named already, there was nothing there. If we can get some evidence this is real I bet it goes right to a TS if not higher.

https://i.imgur.com/8ET9p5E.gif

Absolutely agree with this, this is a recent progression in the last 4-6 hours imo. Really starting to get going now though, if these are two VHTs forming currently on meso and rotating:


He's a tiny little guy (entire storm diameter is likely the hurricane force wind radius of Milton lol) but these tiny cores can ramp up quickly:

[Nuno]

There's little doubt in my mind that this should be named Oscar.

Im glad the development chances have finally been raised to match what we're seeing on satellite. I imagine we get warnings in the carribbean soon.

[Subtrop]

AL, 16, 2024101912, , BEST, 0, 213N, 696W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, TRANSITIONED, alC42024 to al162024,

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wasn't this 10% yesterday? What a difference a day makes. A 10 to 90% invest and a new TS

[wxman57]

HY-2C scatterometer at 0852Z had at least one 35 kt wind, along with evidence of an LLC. This one has no future. It will soon be butting up against a wall of SW-NE wind shear that reaches the central Bahamas. Small systems like this can strengthen quickly and weaken quickly. I was debating whether it would shoot off to the NE when it tracks a bit farther west of if the moisture would shoot off NE and the weak low-level swirl continue to eastern Cuba. I'm leaning more toward the second scenario.

[USTropics]

Wasn't this 10% yesterday? What a difference a day makes. A 10 to 90% invest and a new TS

This was literally 30% like 3 hours ago. This is one of my favorite reasons for following tropical MET.. When all the models and prognostics say this doesn't have a chance, Mother Nature says 'hold my beer' and just does what it wants.

[Subtrop]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Oscar, located just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).