ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next few
days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west-northwestward
around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on
Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of
development by late in the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Irma's much wimpier ugly twin

[cycloneye]

Nothing to see.

[cycloneye]

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
couple of days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the
chances of development by late in the weekend. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Long range loop as it moves north of PR. The X post is me.

 https://x.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1847293750927659157

[Sciencerocks]

least at the mid level this is a good bit more organized. We will see who get nadine.

[cycloneye]

North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized
since yesterday with a trough of low pressure located more than 100
miles north of Puerto Rico. Some gradual development is possible
this weekend while it moves generally westward at around 15 mph,
passing near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. By early next
week, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level
winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/AngelPandaEarth/status/1847462052048334854

[floridasun]

94L look like td to me let see if se Bahama may need out watch for se Bahama if keep looking better in morning

[Hurricane2022]

94L look like td to me let see if se Bahama may need out watch for se Bahama if keep looking better in morning

94L is really looking very interesting during this night. Not sure if this is already a TD or TS but it will likely become one in the next 6 - 12 hours. Maybe we can see an brief hurricane in the next few days?? @USTropics @GCANE @CrazyC83
 https://x.com/BazoCallar/status/1847475567303479406

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1847481714802639235

[Jr0d]

Looks like a tropical storm based on the satellite tonight. It seems like these small storms can spun up fast...and get sheared apart fast.

Inam surprised it is still just a lemon.

[zhukm29]

Also, ASCAT is doing what it does best, missing the system yet again

[Sciencerocks]

There's little doubt in my mind that this should be named Oscar.

[ChrisH-UK]

94L looks to be in a good state in a pocket of low shear. I could see this been named Oscar.

[USTropics]

94L looks to be in a good state in a pocket of low shear. I could see this been named Oscar.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8041/UFF6BC.gif [/url]

Convection has persisted now for 24+ hours, the issue is we haven't had any evidence of a closed surface circulation. All the evidence we currently have suggests this remains mostly a mid level feature (albeit we haven't had a proper pass in almost a day). CIMSS surface vorticity also suggests a weak signature at the surface at best:


Rooting for 94L to get a name though (it likely should have been briefly named by the Cabo Verde islands).

[xironman]

Too bad no recon, as mentioned there is no evidence of a circulation at the surface, but it does look good

[Pasmorade]

Will this be Oscar? If so, it's truly amazing how unfavorable the MDR was...

Near the Southeastern Bahamas (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized with a small
area of low pressure located less than a couple hundred miles north
of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. In addition,
recently received passive microwave imagery also suggests that a
well-defined surface circulation could be developing. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form as soon
as later today as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15
mph. On this track, the system should pass north of Hispaniola
today, and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern
Bahamas, and extreme eastern Cuba on Sunday. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.