ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[zhukm29]

Wow, looks like ASCAT missed again - probably won't have ASCAT anymore for this system before the environment gets worse (but not surprised)

Honestly it's skill at this point to miss everything so exactly

Last night:


This morning:

[ChrisH-UK]

There is a vigorous rotation with 94L but it's convection is been pushed away due to shear.

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have not
gotten any better organized since yesterday. The low is moving
into an environment that is less conducive for development, and
therefore the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be
decreasing. This system is forecast to move westward or
west-southwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
through much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[TomballEd]

There is a vigorous rotation with 94L but it's convection is been pushed away due to shear.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4425/nPOlvs.gif [/url]

Multiple cloud swirls orbiting a mean center of low pressure, exposed to the W of the convection. This is one of the cases where development would be a good thing. Euro ensembles suggesting this could be a Caribbean system in 10 days. At that point, who really knows whether the environment would be hostile, or whether steering might carry this into the Gulf.

[Category5Kaiju]

Don't be surprised if development chances in the far eastern MDR for this fizzle, only to come back closer to the western Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have
diminished during the past 24 hours. The low is moving into an
environment that is less conducive for development, and therefore
the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing.
This system is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through much of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[zhukm29]

Looks like someone trying to inflate a balloon

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished again in associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While the system is currently embedded in an
environment that is not favorable for development over the next
couple of days, the system is forecast to move generally westward to
west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental
conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in
the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Nimbus]

Looks like someone trying to inflate a balloon

https://i.ibb.co/PZjngBx/goes16-ir-94-L-202410122115.gif

Maybe it will take a track back home to Weeksville rather than recurve?

[wzrgirl1]

I just cannot even fathom a long tracker getting south Florida from the east unless: 1) there is a strong high pressure forecasted or 2) it makes it into the Caribbean. What was the last storm that came off of Africa in October to make it to south Florida in October? Was it Irene?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited with a well-defined
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable
environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple
of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become
more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part
of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Konarik

[underthwx]

This system needs watching...as does every wave....I'm not suggesting this system will affect the US...perish the thought....but it's Hurricane season....anything is possible with 94L....I do believe it will at a minimum become a depression...based solely on the NHC outlook....(and of course here on S2k)...

[emeraldislenc]

Yes I agree we need to be watchful this year is different!

[weeniepatrol]

[underthwx]

https://imgur.com/TbnRbUs

94L spinning.....thats a great look at it...

[Visioen]

https://imgur.com/TbnRbUs

That convective 'outburst' over the coc at the end looks pretty impressive on IR:

Cutest bit of convection I've ever seen.

[hipshot]

https://imgur.com/TbnRbUs

94L spinning.....thats a great look at it...

I don't see any shear affect or dry air, if there is any. If it can hold together until it gets further west, it could be trouble. JM2C

[emeraldislenc]

Looks like a large circulation it needs to be watched especially the latter part of the week

[bob rulz]

I definitely think this was briefly a tropical storm. I don't expect the NHC to upgrade it even in postseason unless it does reform later.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is struggling to produce showers and
thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable
environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple
of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become
more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part
of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly