ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

What a storm. My relatives in the bay area are OK.

I am so thankful this did not make landfall north of Tampa Bay. That north jog yesterday morning made me nervous for awhile. Better to evacuate and be safe than to be caught in a surprise at the last minute. I have no regrets warning folks about a possible devastating surge there. The landfall point along southern Longboat Key was well within my ‘discomfort zone.’ Hats off to the NHC. Their accuracy now compared to a few decades ago is astounding. They do an amazing job.

You could see the storm decouple on radar shortly after landfall. This was easy by comparing the circulation centers (velocity setting) from the Tampa and Melbourne radar sites. They were at different locations on radar confirming the MLC was racing off ahead of the LLC. Fascinating storm to watch. The tornado outbreak will be studied for a long time.

Saw a livestream from IRB. No surge damage from Milton. Some additional wind damage and the residents describe the wind as the most intense of any storm. Some places on the Pinellas islands have power. Bridges are already back open. The Pinellas beach towns are resuming cleanup efforts quickly.

Looks like Venice down to Charlotte Harbor got nailed by the surge. Let’s not forget those folks just because it wasn’t Tampa Bay.

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://i.imgur.com/Vj9YvUo.gif

Looks like it got ripped apart and smeared all over the atmosphere, like a bug being run over by a car or something.

Crazy considering a little more than 24 hours ago it was a Category 5 hurricane.

Amazing what shear and land interaction can do.

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/Vj9YvUo.gif

Looks like it got ripped apart and smeared all over the atmosphere, like a bug being run over by a car or something.

Most graphic description of a storm's fate I've ever read.

[snowpocalypse]

I heard the damage in St. Pete is extensive. Apparently the Tropicana lost part of it’s roof and there is extensive high rise glass damage.

Yep, the Trop lost all of its roof. I cannot load images ( and I have been here 19 years..LOL)

#TropicanaField roof ripped off by #HurricaneMilton in Tampa St. Pete #RaysBaseball #RaysUp #Tropicanastadium #MLB
@jpetramala

Here you go. I guess baseball was meant to be played outside!

[wwizard]

As always, NHC did a great track forecast from the first advisory.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1844279074564256232

Interesting how well the position by Wednesday-Thursday verified despite the significant southern shifts on Sunday-Tuesday. Otherwise, still a good job with the track forecast.

Yes. I don't wish to poo-poo the praise, but unless NHC had been locked on to the same point the whole time, rejecting claims to the contrary based on guts and good sense, then the fact the landfall ended up only 12 miles off an early forecast is, objectively, just luck.

Even if there were shifts along the way, it never left the general area and the fact they ended being pretty close from the initial advisory is pretty remarkable.

You can call it luck if you want, and if so they must be pretty lucky because they’ve basically been on top of it with Helene, Ernesto, Debby (after 4 advisories), and though they were off on Beryl in the Gulf, they nailed it going into the Yucatan. Even Kirk was a nearly perfect forecast track from the start.

[Tireman4]

I heard the damage in St. Pete is extensive. Apparently the Tropicana lost part of it’s roof and there is extensive high rise glass damage.

Yep, the Trop lost all of its roof. I cannot load images ( and I have been here 19 years..LOL)

#TropicanaField roof ripped off by #HurricaneMilton in Tampa St. Pete #RaysBaseball #RaysUp #Tropicanastadium #MLB
@jpetramala

Here you go. I guess baseball was meant to be played outside!

https://i.imgur.com/ZxZn32A.jpeg

Well, cough ahem...Minute Maid Park, built in 2000(The Juice Box as we call it) has survived Beryl (2024) and Ike (2008), so...

[mpic]

Yep, the Trop lost all of its roof. I cannot load images ( and I have been here 19 years..LOL)

#TropicanaField roof ripped off by #HurricaneMilton in Tampa St. Pete #RaysBaseball #RaysUp #Tropicanastadium #MLB
@jpetramala

Here you go. I guess baseball was meant to be played outside!

https://i.imgur.com/ZxZn32A.jpeg

Well, cough ahem...Minute Maid Park, built in 2000(The Juice Box as we call it) has survived Beryl (2024) and Ike (2008), so...

True that the Juice Box wasn't completely destroyed but it DID sustain damage. Just putting it in context lol.

[Tireman4]

Here you go. I guess baseball was meant to be played outside!

https://i.imgur.com/ZxZn32A.jpeg

Well, cough ahem...Minute Maid Park, built in 2000(The Juice Box as we call it) has survived Beryl (2024) and Ike (2008), so...

True that the Juice Box wasn't completely destroyed but it DID sustain damage. Just putting it in context lol.

But it survived.

[mpic]

Drone video of Tropicana https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/milton-shreds-roof-tropicana-field-home-baseballs-tampa-bay-rays-rcna174808

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://i.imgur.com/Vj9YvUo.gif

Looks like it got ripped apart and smeared all over the atmosphere, like a bug being run over by a car or something.

Most graphic description of a storm's fate I've ever read.

It comes from personal sad experiences where I was watching a ladybug or bee and someone just ran right over them with a wheeled trashcan or those "trains" in outdoor malls for toddlers.

[Teban54]

When was the last time a white H (extratropical storm with hurricane-force winds) was shown on a forecast cone?

[Abdullah]

This is probably the peak of power outages in the storm, now that it has moved off the coast:



30% of Floridians without power (3.41M households out of 11.6M)

68% of Tampa Bay metro area residents without power (1.17M out of 1.71M)
76% of Sarasota metro area residents without power (425K out of 561K)
33% of Orlando metro area residents without power (374K out of 1.13M)
49% of Lee County residents without power (248K out of 504K)
62% of Daytona Beach metro area residents without power (244K out of 395K)
53% of Polk County residents without power (201K out of 379K)

[InfernoFlameCat]

When was the last time a white H (extratropical storm with hurricane-force winds) was shown on a forecast cone?

https://i.postimg.cc/25bXVD1m/091546-5day-exp-Cone.png

A few days ago. Hurricane Kirk

[CycloysisNegative]

Does anyone have a link to any source(s) for wind speeds recorded last night from Pinellas county?

[HurricaneBelle]

Does anyone have a link to any source(s) for wind speeds recorded last night from Pinellas county?

These were the top ones recorded, the full list is at https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/2410100821.nous42.html

ST PETERSBURG - ALBERT WHITT 101 MPH 1029 PM 10/09 27.77N/82.63W
SEMINOLE 83 MPH 1030 PM 10/09 27.96N/82.80W
CLEARWATER BEACH 79 MPH 0845 PM 10/09 27.99N/82.83W
SEMINOLE 79 MPH 1045 PM 10/09 27.87N/82.66W
1.9 NE BELLEAIR (WEATHERSTEM 77 MPH 1110 PM 10/09 27.96N/82.80W
ST. PETERSBURG, FL 75 MPH 0812 PM 10/09 27.76N/82.63W
DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY 74 MPH 0821 PM 10/09 28.06N/82.81W
1.2 SW LARGO (WEATHERSTEM) 73 MPH 1010 PM 10/09 27.89N/82.79W
3.2 S SAINT PETERSBURG (WEAT 72 MPH 0810 PM 10/09 27.71N/82.66W
ST. PETERSBURG, FL 72 MPH 0712 PM 10/09 27.76N/82.63W
CLEARWATER 71 MPH 1115 PM 10/09 27.96N/82.80W
PINELLAS PARK 70 MPH 0858 PM 10/09 27.85N/82.73W

[Steve]

Does anyone have a link to any source(s) for wind speeds recorded last night from Pinellas county?

Maybe they did catch some peaks but if you go to the NWS for TSP you can choose a variety of locations that will show you the last 24 hours.

https://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.p ... fset=14400

[PTPatrick]

Interesting how well the position by Wednesday-Thursday verified despite the significant southern shifts on Sunday-Tuesday. Otherwise, still a good job with the track forecast.

Yes. I don't wish to poo-poo the praise, but unless NHC had been locked on to the same point the whole time, rejecting claims to the contrary based on guts and good sense, then the fact the landfall ended up only 12 miles off an early forecast is, objectively, just luck.

Even if there were shifts along the way, it never left the general area and the fact they ended being pretty close from the initial advisory is pretty remarkable.

You can call it luck if you want, and if so they must be pretty lucky because they’ve basically been on top of it with Helene, Ernesto, Debby (after 4 advisories), and though they were off on Beryl in the Gulf, they nailed it going into the Yucatan. Even Kirk was a nearly perfect forecast track from the start.

I think this is a perfect example that wobbles ”can” mean something but they don’t always, especially when you are far from landfall. I think sometimes the atmosphere is a bit like a multi-lane road that converges to into 1. The storm might occasionally switch lanes along the way, but ultimately it’ll get pinched toward the same exit point. Obviously not always the case, but I think we are seeing this more and more as models have improved over the years. I think sometimes the models understand the downstream exit point but miss the small perturbations in the atmosphere that happen along the way. Anyway, half the fun is in getting there, right!

[Nuno]

What a storm. My relatives in the bay area are OK.

I am so thankful this did not make landfall north of Tampa Bay. That north jog yesterday morning made me nervous for awhile. Better to evacuate and be safe than to be caught in a surprise at the last minute. I have no regrets warning folks about a possible devastating surge there. The landfall point along southern Longboat Key was well within my ‘discomfort zone.’ Hats off to the NHC. Their accuracy now compared to a few decades ago is astounding. They do an amazing job.

You could see the storm decouple on radar shortly after landfall. This was easy by comparing the circulation centers (velocity setting) from the Tampa and Melbourne radar sites. They were at different locations on radar confirming the MLC was racing off ahead of the LLC. Fascinating storm to watch. The tornado outbreak will be studied for a long time.

Saw a livestream from IRB. No surge damage from Milton. Some additional wind damage and the residents describe the wind as the most intense of any storm. Some places on the Pinellas islands have power. Bridges are already back open. The Pinellas beach towns are resuming cleanup efforts quickly.

Looks like Venice down to Charlotte Harbor got nailed by the surge. Let’s not forget those folks just because it wasn’t Tampa Bay.

Hope everyone stays safe.

Agreed. Ive been critical of the NHC in recent years for a variety of reasons but I tip my hat to them. They really nailed the track, and didn't waste any time with their messaging. Warnings and dangers were laid out clearly for all to take seriously. Great job NHC. Hope everyone came out of the storm okay.

[HurricaneBelle]

I think this is a perfect example that wobbles ”can” mean something but they don’t always, especially when you are far from landfall. I think sometimes the atmosphere is a bit like a multi-lane road that converges to into 1. The storm might occasionally switch lanes along the way, but ultimately it’ll get pinched toward the same exit point. Obviously not always the case, but I think we are seeing this more and more as models have improved over the years. I think sometimes the models understand the downstream exit point but miss the small perturbations in the atmosphere that happen along the way. Anyway, half the fun is in getting there, right!

Also nobody wants to believe forecasted turns until they start (such as Milton's turn to the E and ENE before landfall), even though it's only on rare occasions that they don't happen; sometimes it's like everyone believes in the XTRP model.

[kassi]

This is probably the peak of power outages in the storm, now that it has moved off the coast:

https://i.imgur.com/KJVA9WJ.png

30% of Floridians without power (3.41M households out of 11.6M)

68% of Tampa Bay metro area residents without power (1.17M out of 1.71M)
76% of Sarasota metro area residents without power (425K out of 561K)
33% of Orlando metro area residents without power (374K out of 1.13M)
49% of Lee County residents without power (248K out of 504K)
62% of Daytona Beach metro area residents without power (244K out of 395K)
53% of Polk County residents without power (201K out of 379K)

It actually went up a little.
3,433,977

https://imgur.com/a/94Umw5H