ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton doesn't look remotely tropical this morning. It decoupled overnight. Far as I can see, there were no sustained hurricane force winds beyond the coast at landfall. As expected, though, gusts to 100 mph were common. Wind is still gusting to about 75 mph on the east coast, with sustained wind in the 50-60 mph range. Saw a wind to 85 mph in Daytona Beach recently with a sustained wind of 55 mph. Like with Helene, the stronger sustained winds were elevated at landfall but dipped down to the surface for brief periods, causing the very strong wind gusts.

I'm sitting in the eyewall of Milton right now. We are definitely over hurricane force gusts, probably over 80 mph. Transformers are blowing everywhere. I don't have any way to directly measure it, but I experienced Cat 1 winds during Irma and this is exceeding it.

[GCANE]

Tampa really dodged a bullet on this one.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... id=8726520

Big shout out for the hero's off the storm - the men and women who ride and drive Recon.

 https://x.com/53rdWRS/status/1844129406375035120

[cycloneye]

As always, NHC did a great track forecast from the first advisory.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1844279074564256232

[aspen]

As always, NHC did a great track forecast from the first advisory.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1844279074564256232

Interesting how well the position by Wednesday-Thursday verified despite the significant southern shifts on Sunday-Tuesday. Otherwise, still a good job with the track forecast.

[wxman57]

Milton doesn't look remotely tropical this morning. It decoupled overnight. Far as I can see, there were no sustained hurricane force winds beyond the coast at landfall. As expected, though, gusts to 100 mph were common. Wind is still gusting to about 75 mph on the east coast, with sustained wind in the 50-60 mph range. Saw a wind to 85 mph in Daytona Beach recently with a sustained wind of 55 mph. Like with Helene, the stronger sustained winds were elevated at landfall but dipped down to the surface for brief periods, causing the very strong wind gusts.

I'm sitting in the eyewall of Milton right now. We are definitely over hurricane force gusts, probably over 80 mph. Transformers are blowing everywhere. I don't have any way to directly measure it, but I experienced Cat 1 winds during Irma and this is exceeding it.

I didn't say Milton was not producing wind, just that it no longer looks tropical on satellite. Looks like your area experienced tropical storm force sustained wind (55-65 mph) but gusts were in the 85-100 mph range, almost twice the sustained wind. Milton's stronger sustained wind became elevated above the surface at landfall, but those 100-110 mph winds aloft were dipping down to the surface. The only sustained hurricane force wind was on the immediate coast near Tampa/Sarasota. However, 100-110 mph wind gusts extended all along the track to Daytona Beach to Cape Canaveral. A hurricane is defined by the 1-min average wind, not the highest wind gusts. Wind gusts can produce significant damage. It doesn't take a full minute of 74+ mph wind to cause damage.

[TampaWxLurker]

Lots of trees down here in eastern Hillsborough. Zero power. 70% of the county is out. Big tall elm trees snapped in half. A few oaks pushed over because the roots got over saturated.

That was worse for us that Irma/Ian. Prob the worst hurricane conditions here since Jeanne in 2004.

[jlauderdal]

Tampa really dodged a bullet on this one.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... id=8726520

Big shout out for the hero's off the storm - the men and women who ride and drive Recon.

 https://x.com/53rdWRS/status/1844129406375035120

Please do not go in flood waters, be careful taking down shutters and keep your gennys away from the house. Post storm is very dangerous and for older folks, you have plenty of time to clean up, heart attacks are real during cleanup, ask ER docs. See you over at the global thread, models are perking up. Milton is in the new Andrew and not to insult all the people over the years affected by the other hurricanes but this one took down a major metro area and the i-4 corridor.

The tornado setup was incredible, we rarely see anything close to a wedge with a hurricane, let alone Florida in general; we had them yesterday. Made it to nyc, flew out of FLL at 1 pm, due east on take off with southerly winds, bumpy for a few thousand feet and then calm the rest of the way. Captain says prior to departure, good news folks, we will arrive 20 minutes early, we are getting help from a southerly breeze, lol.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton doesn't look remotely tropical this morning. It decoupled overnight. Far as I can see, there were no sustained hurricane force winds beyond the coast at landfall. As expected, though, gusts to 100 mph were common. Wind is still gusting to about 75 mph on the east coast, with sustained wind in the 50-60 mph range. Saw a wind to 85 mph in Daytona Beach recently with a sustained wind of 55 mph. Like with Helene, the stronger sustained winds were elevated at landfall but dipped down to the surface for brief periods, causing the very strong wind gusts.

I'm sitting in the eyewall of Milton right now. We are definitely over hurricane force gusts, probably over 80 mph. Transformers are blowing everywhere. I don't have any way to directly measure it, but I experienced Cat 1 winds during Irma and this is exceeding it.

I didn't say Milton was not producing wind, just that it no longer looks tropical on satellite. Looks like your area experienced tropical storm force sustained wind (55-65 mph) but gusts were in the 85-100 mph range, almost twice the sustained wind. Milton's stronger sustained wind became elevated above the surface at landfall, but those 100-110 mph winds aloft were dipping down to the surface. The only sustained hurricane force wind was on the immediate coast near Tampa/Sarasota. However, 100-110 mph wind gusts extended all along the track to Daytona Beach to Cape Canaveral. A hurricane is defined by the 1-min average wind, not the highest wind gusts. Wind gusts can produce significant damage. It doesn't take a full minute of 74+ mph wind to cause damage.

I didn't mean to imply that, lol. Just reporting my experience thus far. We kept power and it's on the downturn now. Do not see much damage.

[Sciencerocks]

[underthwx]

As always, NHC did a great track forecast from the first advisory.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1844279074564256232

Its almost magic what the NHC does.....I hope everyone affected are safe....and here's to blue skies!....

[underthwx]

Which portion of the west coast of Florida recieved the highest surge?...

[al78]

Hurricane force wind reports I have found from the NHC updates:

Marineland: 1-min: 83 mph, gust: 92 mph
Egmont Channel: 1-min 86 mph, gust: 105 mph
Skyway Fishing Pier: 1-min: 73 mph (very close to cat 1), gust: 102 mph
Venice: 1-min: 92 mph, gust: 107 mph
Middle Tampa Bay: 1-min: 74 mph, gust: 98 mph
Bartow: gust: 94 mph, included this because going by other records had a fair chance of experiencing hurricane force winds.

Marineland is a strange record. Milton's MSW as it exited the east coast was around 75 kts (85 mph) so to record this strength of wind you would expect the station is in a very exposed coastal location and caught the peak wind of the hurricane. I looked where Marineland is and it is distant from the storm track and would not have experienced core winds. I wonder if this wind was from a tornado or microburst in one of the outer bands.

[NDG]

My current conditions outside.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1844232458704965954

So far worse than Irma but not a Charley. Butler chain lakes water was above the docks before the storm. Ground was super saturated. Lost a ton of oaks in Charley. It could happen again. 24 hour rainfall totals have to be over a foot by now.

Yes, definitely worst than Irma here in my parts of Orlando, I was not here in FL for Charley but neighbors also tell me Charley was worst here Orlando.
The back side of the storm was nasty, it woke me up at 4 AM.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1844297091339911607

[Weatherboy1]

Good morning from downtown Sarasota. We fared fine, our building fared fine, etc. Some boats were washed up on shore, lots of branches large and small are down, and if I had to guess from the line of debris along the bay, surge was probably only in the 6-8 foot range (water doesn't appear to have crossed Tamiami). One bank building downtown had quite a few windows blown out. Could've been worse for sure, and I know in some places, damage is worse. Hope everyone else is okay and the recovery process is as smooth as possible in light of the circumstances.

[longhorn2004]

So what happens to Milton now? Jetstream got him out of Florida quickly.

[SconnieCane]

The current record for the number of tornados spawned by a hurricane is 120, held by Hurricane Ivan. Frances and Rita both had 100+. What are the chances for Milton to break this record?

I heard 126 tornado reports today over Florida today.on nbc6 in Miami.

Warnings issued, not reports. SPC shows 45 reports for yesterday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/241009_rpts.html

The local National Weather Service offices will do damage surveys to determine how many occurred, and assign EF-ratings.

[TallyTracker]

I heard the damage in St. Pete is extensive. Apparently the Tropicana lost part of it’s roof and there is extensive high rise glass damage.

[LARanger]

As always, NHC did a great track forecast from the first advisory.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1844279074564256232

Interesting how well the position by Wednesday-Thursday verified despite the significant southern shifts on Sunday-Tuesday. Otherwise, still a good job with the track forecast.

Yes. I don't wish to poo-poo the praise, but unless NHC had been locked on to the same point the whole time, rejecting claims to the contrary based on guts and good sense, then the fact the landfall ended up only 12 miles off an early forecast is, objectively, just luck.

[Tireman4]

I heard the damage in St. Pete is extensive. Apparently the Tropicana lost part of it’s roof and there is extensive high rise glass damage.

Yep, the Trop lost all of its roof. I cannot load images ( and I have been here 19 years..LOL)

#TropicanaField roof ripped off by #HurricaneMilton in Tampa St. Pete #RaysBaseball #RaysUp #Tropicanastadium #MLB
@jpetramala

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://i.imgur.com/Vj9YvUo.gif

Looks like it got ripped apart and smeared all over the atmosphere, like a bug being run over by a car or something.