ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormPyrate]

So all these weird readings, are they typical of a hurricane coming apart quickly and just releasing energy?

[NDG]

So while I took a nap Milton indeed took the forecasted turn and slowed down.
Based on the latest fix 30 minutes ago, it headed on a 60 deg heading and slowed down to around 12 mph down from 15-20 miles mph during the day.

[kevin]

AF plane 949.8 mb extrapolated with 8 kt winds, lower pressure than the previous pass.

[johngaltfla]

Serious 80 mph + now, South Sarasota

[Craters]

I was outside trying to get one of my dogs to poop for what’s probably my last chance of the night and a transformer or something nearby propped and HOLY GEEZ did it scare the crap out of me and my dog!

I saw the lights go out in the front of the neighborhood, but fortunately I’ve still got mine… for now at least.

Well, at least it sounds like it made your trip outside a success!

[Hurricane Mike]

I am impressed that the weakening slowed so much this evening. Looks like the eye is going a slight northeast wobble right now.

[StormPyrate]

Ok I just have to ask, in the extreme wind warning NHC says Eyewall at St Pete / Tampa
But radar clearly has the eye wall much further south.
What am I missing?

[CrazyC83]

AF plane 949.8 mb extrapolated with 8 kt winds, lower pressure than the previous pass.

Pressure of 949 mb there.

[wx98]

Center of the eye looks to be about 20 miles offshore. Landfall near Sarasota or just south in a couple hours. Huge surge risk for Sarasota, Venice, Englewood, and adjacent communities.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The hurricane may very well strengthen till landfall. Baroclinic forcing is doing its job.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, a lot more 110+ kt FL winds measured by the AF plane including a 115 kt measurement. All in the southern half of Milton.

FL winds are naturally going to be strongest on the southern side based on the storm’s heading. However, there isn’t any convection to mix it down. Winds on the north side are weaker but will be mixed down a bit more efficiently with convection, but not as well as in a traditional hurricane because of frontal interaction. As wxman57 said, sustained winds will be suppressed but gusts will be substantially higher

[NDG]

Latest fix by the AF Recon Milton starting to take a more NE to NNE heading wobble again.
Latest fix: 27.2N 82.9 955 mb

[cheezyWXguy]

Crap did we lose the Tampa radar?

Edit: nvm reflectivity is still working but velocity hasn’t updated in 15 minutes

[eastcoastFL]

Ok I just have to ask, in the extreme wind warning NHC says Eyewall at St Pete / Tampa
But radar clearly has the eye wall much further south.
What am I missing?

The NE eyewall is pressing right into Tampa bay right now

[Steve]

Connor Croft in eyewall.

[kassi]

Crap did we lose the Tampa radar?

It's working fine for me on Radarscope.

[eastcoastFL]

AF plane 949.8 mb extrapolated with 8 kt winds, lower pressure than the previous pass.

Pressure of 949 mb there.

One resilient storm

[NDG]

90 mph wind gust at Sarasota airport!

49G90

[kevin]

90 mph gust measured. Also some 100 - 114 mph non-official gusts measured by storm chasers.

[Steve]

Connor Croft in eyewall.

He’s in Bradenton so should catch a bunch of different sides of the eyewall.