ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I have to believe the intense wind shear that is weakening Milton has also greatly enhanced the tornado outbreak today. It's like a Plains or Deep South outbreak, not something normally seen ahead of a hurricane.

C,

Considering they started to the way south of the reach of the trough in SW FL and that band is now close to the Atlantic would the influence to spark these not be coming from the SE or SSE?

It is likely associated with a trailing pseudo-stationary front (which links up to 93L) that is steering Milton. That band is going offshore shortly, although the northern Bahamas could have a tornado threat this evening.

[NDG]

Definitely Milton has finally made the turn make landfall near Bradenton.

[ineedsnow]

Being on the Lake/Polk county line I’m expecting 80mph sustained with gusts over 100

my brother lives in a double wide in lake Wales.. I'm terrified for him tonight

[NDG]

Huge new eye?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241009/427dede61e41fc518f0ef944aa974f1f.jpg


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Models were correct that the northern quadrant was going to become very potent, so if Pinellas misses the eye that part of the eyewall they will be in will be rough.

[Hurricaneman]

Being on the Lake/Polk county line I’m expecting 80mph sustained with gusts over 100

my brother lives in a double wide in lake Wales.. I'm terrified for him tonight

Let’s hope he comes out okay and hope and pray for the best

[kevin]

I'm hearing reports of a very intense hurricane near Vero Beach, seems to have passed by now. But I don't know which sources are reliable, anyone got more information?

Edit: yes I meant tornado, not hurricane, my bad. Long day.

[GCANE]

Yet another PDS tornado warning

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844127943771160778

[chaser1]

I recommend watching Ryan hall on TV while being on the internet. The tornado aspect of this storm is greater than I would have thought based on SPC outlooks yesterday. They were on it early today with ENH and hatched SigTor.

Orlando area now has warnings.

Nope, no tornado warnings here. I first checked radar and saw no semblance of Tornado signiture. Then checked local forecast office and there was only watches in effect.

Orange County, not the actual city. I lived in Orlando for a year in 1983 and 1984.

Same way I consider Montgomery and Fort Bend counties to be Houston area.

Ah, got it. Seems like warnings are put out for particular towns at times- and entire counties for others. It's crazy how fast these discreet vorticity cells pop up and then dissipate. The scary ones appear to maintain an identity for some time

[TampaWxLurker]

That new bigger eyewall is getting very close to the Manatee/Sarasota coast.

[TR772]

I'm hearing reports of a very intense hurricane near Vero Beach, seems to have passed by now. But I don't know which sources are reliable, anyone got more information?

Easter part of Vero, Gifford.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I'm hearing reports of a very intense hurricane near Vero Beach, seems to have passed by now. But I don't know which sources are reliable, anyone got more information?

The hurricane definitely hasn’t passed.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JohnBasham/status/1844129772517065133



 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1844117777306747326



 https://x.com/NewsOfEarthTr/status/1844131033186509230

[Craters]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Ian?

Not a major city though? I'm thinking wind and tall buildings, and if they've ever really been tested from a near hit, or miss.

Alicia, Ike, Beryl? Do they count, or is Houston too far from the coast?

[Steve]

I'm hearing reports of a very intense hurricane near Vero Beach, seems to have passed by now. But I don't know which sources are reliable, anyone got more information?

Yeah. Ryan Hall had some footage. Pull him up and rewind a few minutes.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm hearing reports of a very intense hurricane near Vero Beach, seems to have passed by now. But I don't know which sources are reliable, anyone got more information?

The hurricane definitely hasn’t passed.

He meant tornado

[johngaltfla]

Milton position tracking and interpolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W) (17 mph)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W) (15 mph)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W) (18 mph)
02:00 PM — 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W) (11 mph)
05:00 PM — 26.9N, 83.4W (+0.6N, -0.6W) (16 mph)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including interpolations, marked in grey)

08:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.9W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
11:00 PM — 27.7N, 82.4W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
02:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.8W (+0.3N, -0.6W) (12 mph)

The projection is for Milton to slow down moderately and start angling to the West over the next few hours, and at 9:20 PM tonight it will landfall at 27.5N, 84.7W, at Bradenton Beach. This location is the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 37 miles to the south-southwest of Tampa and 13 miles to the northwest of Sarasota.

The track forecast has been shifted north by 20 to 30 miles, reminiscent of the 20 to 30 miles to the northwest Milton tracked ahead of its forecast.

Hate to correct you sir, but as a native I must.

Siesta Key is a good 20 miles south of Bradenton Beach.

Bradenton Beach is just south of Holmes Beach and Anna Maria Island. Odds are per the modeling I've been following the storm will cross north of that area closer to Anna Maria and into Tampa Bay, Palmetto, and going inland around Ruskin.

[kevin]

I'm hearing reports of a very intense hurricane near Vero Beach, seems to have passed by now. But I don't know which sources are reliable, anyone got more information?

The hurricane definitely hasn’t passed.

He meant tornado

Yes indeed, it's a long day.

[ElectricStorm]

Here it was by Fort Pierce

Holy
 https://x.com/DualDoppler/status/1844122849029796312

[Abdullah]

Milton position tracking and interpolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W) (17 mph)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W) (15 mph)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W) (18 mph)
02:00 PM — 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W) (11 mph)
05:00 PM — 26.9N, 83.4W (+0.6N, -0.6W) (16 mph)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including interpolations, marked in grey)

08:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.9W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
11:00 PM — 27.7N, 82.4W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
02:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.8W (+0.3N, -0.6W) (12 mph)

The projection is for Milton to slow down moderately and start angling to the West over the next few hours, and at 9:20 PM tonight it will landfall at 27.5N, 84.7W, at Bradenton Beach. This location is the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 37 miles to the south-southwest of Tampa and 13 miles to the northwest of Sarasota.

The track forecast has been shifted north by 20 to 30 miles, reminiscent of the 20 to 30 miles to the northwest Milton tracked ahead of its forecast.

Hate to correct you sir, but as a native I must.

Siesta Key is a good 20 miles south of Bradenton Beach.

Bradenton Beach is just south of Holmes Beach and Anna Maria Island. Odds are per the modeling I've been following the storm will cross north of that area closer to Anna Maria and into Tampa Bay, Palmetto, and going inland around Ruskin.

Thank you! I copy-pasted the previous one and forgot to change it.
It is fixed now.

[TR772]

https://x.com/jntblake0812/status/1844127867636216294