ATL: MILTON - Models

[Fancy1002]

18Z ICON...the all clear in Tampa was premature!

The ICON seems to be an outlier at this point that’s behind the curve.

What are you talking about all of the intensity/hurricane models are sending it either directly into Tampa Bay or just slightly north

[Tekken_Guy]

18Z ICON...the all clear in Tampa was premature!

The ICON seems to be an outlier at this point that’s behind the curve.

What are you talking about all of the intensity/hurricane models are sending it either directly into Tampa Bay or just slightly north

I thought they’ve shifted south to Sarasota.

[floridasun]

remember Stift been south not north

[Poonwalker]

Why is Tampa and Pinellas still under a 10-15 surge warning while Charlotte Harbor is less at 8-12 ft? Is this from backside winds?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Why is Tampa and Pinellas still under a 10-15 surge warning while Charlotte Harbor is less at 8-12 ft? Is this from backside winds?

Topography.

[NDG]

Zoomed in 18z ICON some people don't like all the sudden.

[psyclone]

Yeah that ICON...I don't care for that one!!!

[sponger]

Icon slicing directly through Tampa. Going to be close.

[robbielyn]

Did icon show ESE dip? if not that could explain it. nhc would not shift south like that on one set of model runs

[Full8s]

Yeah that ICON...I don't care for that one!!!

Agreed. I'm north of Tampa (just below Spring Hill on the map, and slightly easy of the evacuation/flood zones)... Don't love this track AT ALL.

However, most of the consensus has us really close to not even being in the cone anymore, so man, it's going to be interesting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS still over Tampa, landfall near St Pete.

[NDG]

18z GFS shows Tampa Bay!!!

[CronkPSU]

GFS not showing a major south shift from what i can tell on my low res version...

[Tekken_Guy]

Has the GFS even applied the southern wobble to the forecast?

[NDG]

[Teban54]

18Z ICON...the all clear in Tampa was premature!

The ICON seems to be an outlier at this point that’s behind the curve.

People talked storm after storm this season about how ICON nailed the Gulf, but now that it shows a more catastrophic scenario than Euro ensembles, it's suddenly an unreliable outlier.

Yes, I know there have been cases where ICON didn't do too well, even this season. But ironically, one of those cases was with Milton itself days earlier, when ICON was showing a further east track than other models (IIRC).

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is where following the NHC is going to be the best bet here. The models are usually a tick north/west of where it actually landfalls. So the GFS/ICON showing Tampa credits their forecast track.

[NDG]

Has the GFS even applied the southern wobble to the forecast?

Yes, it was initiated at the same 18z location the early 18z Models which got switched to the south were initiated.

[Travorum]

Has the GFS even applied the southern wobble to the forecast?

Yes. GFS initialized at 22.5N 88.2W, which is exactly where the NHC put it at 18z during the southern wobble.

[Poonwalker]

This is where following the NHC is going to be the best bet here. The models are usually a tick north/west of where it actually landfalls. So the GFS/ICON showing Tampa credits their forecast track.

What about Hafs, Hmon, and HWRF. I have a feeling once one of those goes south the whole north propping with just cave in. At least it will in my mind lol.