ATL: MILTON - Models

[NDG]

18z Euro, 0z ICON, 0z GFS, pretty much in the spot for landfall, probably 10 miles expand at the most between them, can't get better consensus than that relatively this far out yet.

[Bocadude85]

GFS about the same landfall area again...will need someone with better resolution than i can get on pivotal to say if it is a bit further north of south...same intensity as previous models, not as sharp an east track, more ENE than the other models

South of the 18z.

[Blown Away]

Definitely a trend developing…

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC comes in south of TB once again also. I’ve said it to many people since yesterday… I think Sarasota and down to Venice has a target on them.


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[Bocadude85]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3J7wP1Pf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh54-trend.gif [/url]

Definitely a trend developing…

Yea I’d start to get nervous if I was in Port Charlotte. IMO.

[CronkPSU]

GFS about the same landfall area again...will need someone with better resolution than i can get on pivotal to say if it is a bit further north of south...same intensity as previous models, not as sharp an east track, more ENE than the other models

South of the 18z.

yeah...not a lot, that angle would still be bad for tampa and just a wobble away from good or terrible news

[BobHarlem]

0z Canadian, no change on track or timing from 12z, Sarasota. All the models seem to be converging on the Tampa Bay to Sarasota area.

[NDG]

CMC comes in south of TB once again also. I’ve said it to many people since yesterday… I think Sarasota and down to Venice has a target on them.


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Looks identical to its earlier 12z run.

[BobHarlem]

0z Ukmet (no graphics yet) shifts left/north to Bradenton from Venice at the 12z.

HURRICANE MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 90.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2024 21.9N 90.4W INTENSE
12UTC 08.10.2024 22.0N 88.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.10.2024 23.0N 87.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2024 24.6N 85.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2024 26.4N 84.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2024 27.4N 82.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2024 28.6N 79.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2024 28.8N 76.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2024 28.7N 74.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2024 29.7N 72.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2024 30.6N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2024 31.5N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2024 31.2N 59.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2024 30.7N 56.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2024 29.5N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Poonwalker]

GFS leaving the fate of Tampa Bay to a wobble.

[ElectricStorm]

Well 0z HAFS-B can be thrown out right off the bat. Has 182kts/876mb in an hour and a half Looks like poor initialization

[shah83]

HAFS-B is showing a more bulky system than in most previous run by a good measure by hr 27.

Also, GFS seems to be progressively showing less shear damage on approach to the bay.

[FLLurker32]

Well 0z HAFS-B can be thrown out right off the bat. Has 182kts/876mb in an hour and a half Looks like poor initialization

If we’d thrown out every model that initiated intensity wrong we’d have only had HAFS for most of this storm.

[shah83]

I think we would all like to throw out the HAFS-B 0z run. Not very extratropical, Clearwater landfall.

[shah83]

HAFS-A run has similar bad news. Not taking the hint from the GFS's slight right move. Probably because of the GFS intensity and relation to the surrounding dynamics.

[Poonwalker]

Hmon going into Palm Harbor area strong Cat 3, Hafs A into Madeira Beach as a cat 4.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is going rogue and headed to Crystal River or Cedar Key.


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[Poonwalker]

Bad runs for Tampa. Shifted north and remain majors.

[Bocadude85]

HWRF is going rogue and headed to Crystal River or Cedar Key.


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The hurricane models were to far west for Helene. I wonder if they have a west bias for Northeast moving storms.

[caneman]

HWRF is going rogue and headed to Crystal River or Cedar Key.


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The hurricane models were to far west for Helene. I wonder if they have a west bias for Northeast moving storms.

I thought I read the HAFS-A OR B had been one of the most accurate. Anyone else read that or know if true which one?