ATL: MILTON - Models

[skillz305]

18Z NAVGEM model run in progress

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z Euro looks like a Sarasota to Melbourne exit..

Can someone post the graphics for 18z Euro?

Only thing working is the 850

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2024100718&fh=48

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z Euro looks like a Sarasota to Melbourne exit..

Can someone post the graphics for 18z Euro?

Been here 20 mf yrs and still don't know how to post an image.

[BobHarlem]

18z hafs a, up the bay, exits into Atlantic by cocoa beach.

[Orlando]

Anyone have access to the 18z hurricane models. TT is obviously getting bombed and the servers aren't handling it.

Yeah TTs servers must be overloaded. NHC was down earlier today. Can't imagine the traffic on both those sites today.

This site has some good links for models: https://www.spaghettimodels.com/
I even loaded the spaghetti models from this site and it took me to Levi's site which loaded.

[BobHarlem]

HAFS-B landfall near Madiera Beach, exits into Atlantic Near Cocoa Beach (Exit point seems to be shifting right on the HAFS)

[BobHarlem]

18z HMON Landfall near Tarpon Springs, exit near New Smyrna Beach

[jlauderdal]

18z Euro looks like a Sarasota to Melbourne exit..

Can someone post the graphics for 18z Euro?

Been here 20 mf yrs and still don't know how to post an image.

Haha, 20 years for me and that doesnt include the old palm beach post board. I rarely post images. All this talk about wilma brings back bad memories, 10 days of no juice but it was cool outside.

[BobHarlem]

18z HWRF Tarpon Springs, exit just south of New Smyrna Beach

[aspen]

18z HAFS-A/B correctly initialize Milton in the middle of an EWRC and show its pressure rising into the upper 930s by tomorrow, with a secondary peak tomorrow afternoon in the 910s (A) or 900s (B). Starts feeling the effects of shear by Wednesday morning.

[Blown Away]

I think we will slowly see the track closer to Cape Coral and a ENE track across FL… These near 90 degree turns to the E after @Tampa do not look right when a tropical system is riding along a trough… JMHO

[BobHarlem]

0z Earlies, very slight tick left/north. All on here are north of Englewood now, and south of New Port Richey. (Even the UKMet) So the cluster is tightening. Don't really see any good reason to doubt the NHC track.

[Blown Away]

00z… Models keep shifting/flattening S after crossing FL… This may start affecting the angle of approach to the FL W Coast…

[ronjon]

18z HWRF Tarpon Springs, exit just south of New Smyrna Beach
https://i.imgur.com/NBBy7eO.gif

HWRF is a full 12 hours later on landfall than the HAFS - Thursday afternoon.

[Tekken_Guy]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/W3rm22XG/IMG-0600.jpg [/url]

00z… Models keep shifting/flattening S after crossing FL… This may start affecting the angle of approach to the FL W Coast…

It looks like the landfall point is moving towards Bradenton according to those models. That would mitigate the worst-case surge scenario for the bay reltaive to a landfall on Pinellas or Pasco.

[Weathertracker96]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/W3rm22XG/IMG-0600.jpg [/url]

00z… Models keep shifting/flattening S after crossing FL… This may start affecting the angle of approach to the FL W Coast…

I agree. Interested to see how models do overnight. I won't be shocked if it pulls a last minute charley.

[mitchell]

Shift south.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5aed5f46d4ae02ee6463256f92352e42195475e78424c2458e7e55494d6191b1.gif

Is it skirting the coast moving North in that clip? Or is that two different models?

Please explain like I'm a 5 yr old

That GIF is NOT showing a path of the storm. It it showing WHERE the storm is forecast to be on two consecutive runs of the GFS model. SO the 18z (Evening run) is showing a landfall a few miles south of the 12z (noon) run of that model.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS… Large cluster S of Tampa now… Gotta think some S track shifts are coming…

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z EPS

https://x.com/ECMWFbot/status/1843460664184189347?s=19

[Steve]

I think we will slowly see the track closer to Cape Coral and a ENE track across FL… These near 90 degree turns to the E after @Tampa do not look right when a tropical system is riding along a trough… JMHO

But it’s October. Things are different.