ATL: MILTON - Models

[blp]

Shift south.

[CronkPSU]

someone will have better resolution but Tampa area landfall as a strengthening hurricane at 63 hours and then exits around Daytona (so more NE than E like Icon) 9 hours later

[blp]

Trending further south last three runs.

[NDG]

[kevin]

So it turns out those most extreme runs of the HAFS model were right...

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Trending further south last three runs.

https://i.ibb.co/dGWdbRk/16519797-3a2b-4349-b751-346fb5945dcf.gif

Zeroing in on Tampa. This could be the most costly hurricane in US history.

[aspen]

So it turns out those most extreme runs of the HAFS model were right...

12z HAFS-B nailed Milton’s intensity.

[caneman]

So it turns out those most extreme runs of the HAFS model were right...

12z HAFS-B nailed Milton’s intensity.

If this is the case, we should also consider the HAFS-B has it weakening significantly (to 964mb) prior to landfall. Which would be great news for all.

Still a Cat. 3 and surge of Cat. 5 if North of the bay.

[NDG]

So it turns out those most extreme runs of the HAFS model were right...

12z HAFS-B nailed Milton’s intensity.

If this is the case, we should also consider the HAFS-B has it weakening significantly (to 964mb) prior to landfall. Which would be great news for all.

Still a Cat 3 at landfall with expanded hurricane force winds with a large storm surge. Not that great news.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD
LOW...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES

Glad to see them go with the 897 to make it official before the weakening trend

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone have access to the 18z hurricane models. TT is obviously getting bombed and the servers aren't handling it.

[Stormgodess]

Shift south.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5aed5f46d4ae02ee6463256f92352e42195475e78424c2458e7e55494d6191b1.gif

Is it skirting the coast moving North in that clip? Or is that two different models?

Please explain like I'm a 5 yr old

[ronjon]

Anyone have access to the 18z hurricane models. TT is obviously getting bombed and the servers aren't handling it.

Yeah TTs servers must be overloaded. NHC was down earlier today. Can't imagine the traffic on both those sites today.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone have access to the 18z hurricane models. TT is obviously getting bombed and the servers aren't handling it.

HAFS-A is right up the mouth of Tampa Bay, HAFS-B is into St. Pete. HMON into Tarpon Springs. HWRF is New Port Richey.

[Steve]

... That's precisely what I'm saying. The forecast is for a weakening trend prior to landfall. That is one positive trend here which I think is under-highlighted on this forum. The NHC supports this. I did not attempt to contradict that in any way. Trust the experts - I support this. I was simply highlighting said positive trend in the regional models, supported with data from a model you spoke highly of and stating I hope this continued. It was a positive post. You turned it negative. I'll move on. Best of luck to you. I want everyone to be safe. Stay safe!

If it comes up into the shear it’s one thing. But the loop current and near-coast heat are both warm anomalies. So that somewhat mitigates extreme weakening. We will see if it peaks out tomorrow afternoon which I’m betting is likely. After that, ? 940’s is still a strong ass 3.

Plus up to 12 foot surge. After seeing surge 1st hand i really don't think most people get it. Shoot, I've been following these for 25 years and I didn't get it til Helene and actually seeing it flood 3 or 3 houses down from me!!!

Been since 69 for me as a wee little kid. But it’s not just the surge. We all know wind is strongest over water because of the lack of friction. So we got a couple extra feet of waves even though inside the bay it’ll be more chops than rolling waves they’ll see at the coast.

[fllawyer]

18Z GFS appears to be a decent jump S. I’m on mobile so hard to post. But seems a good clip S of 12Z. May be first GFS run with landfall south of Tampa.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Shift south.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5aed5f46d4ae02ee6463256f92352e42195475e78424c2458e7e55494d6191b1.gif

Is it skirting the coast moving North in that clip? Or is that two different models?

Please explain like I'm a 5 yr old

models are coming into agreement Tampa is gonna be hit

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z Euro looks like a Sarasota to Melbourne exit..

[ronjon]

18z Euro looks like a Sarasota to Melbourne exit..

Can someone post the graphics for 18z Euro?

[fllawyer]

18z Euro looks like a Sarasota to Melbourne exit..

Can someone post the link or run?