Will Beryl be the strongest of the 2024 NATL hurricane season?

[skillz305]

My bearish vote of Beryl being the strongest storm of the season is looking better and better as the weeks go by! Still a long way to go but damn it was a shot in the dark and here we are.

[Category5Kaiju]

My bearish vote of Beryl being the strongest storm of the season is looking better and better as the weeks go by! Still a long way to go but damn it was a shot in the dark and here we are.

It would really be something if the strongest storm of the season occurred in early July. That would absolutely defy climatology with the strongest storm normally happening in August-November

[skillz305]

Beryl still the strongest

[Stormybajan]

Beryl still the strongest

I dont think the Atlantic basin has EVER had its strongest hurricane by wind or pressure in June, so maybe Beryl is looking to add another historic record to her already longgg list of achievements

[Cyclenall]

I don't think I voted in this one but I would've guessed one more TC stronger. Even in hyperactive seasons cat5s are uncommon so I'd bet towards the lower chance.

[Foxfires]

Spicy hot take
Beryl will be stronger than any typhoons that West Pacific will ever produce this year - WPAC can't pull the trigger against La Nina. Lol

Hey, I've not been active within the past year so this is a late comment but
isn't this you?

Here's the not validated DOST-ASTI data.
https://i.imgur.com/Zz7d590.png
https://i.imgur.com/f5oqy3p.png

Last I checked, Meranti occurred in a La Nina/developing La Nina. I'm aware this is from like 3 years ago, but you plotted data of a possible 878mb typhoon (which almost certainly would be >145kt) in a Nino -> Nina year, then suggested the WPac cannot beat 145kt/934mb in a Nino -> Nina year (actually I'm not sure if we're having a Nina this year but that was the thought in July). I'm aware that 2016 is not the same as 2024, but the only factor you mentioned was La Nina. Also the 2020s so far have mostly been La Nina, and that certainly didn't stop Goni or Surigae or Chanthu.

Now, that's not to say the WPac will produce a super strong typhoon this year, but it can and has "pulled the trigger" against La Nina in terms of strength alone.

[Teban54]

With Helene falling just short of becoming more intense than Beryl (938 vs. 934 mb), this question remains open in both pressure and winds, although the tone has obviously changed from earlier comments in this thread.

We'll see if 90L can bottom out lower than 934 mb, but in terms of wind speed, it's hard to get a 145 kt Cat 5 in Central Atlantic. Even more so if Beryl gets a post-season bump to 150 kt.

Current record for the easternmost Cat 5 is Lorenzo, which hit 140 kt at 24.3N 45.0W.
Current record for the easternmost 145 kt storm is Lee, at 17.5N 53.0W. (Isabel came close at 54.8W.)
Current record for the easternmost 150 kt and 155 kt storm are both Irma: it hit 150 kt at 16.7N 57.8W, and hit 155 kt at 16.9N 59.2W.

[HurricaneRyan]

Kirk accepts the challenge

[Ubuntwo]

As of the 5 AM Eastern advisory, Kirk has tied Beryl’s peak MSLP at 934mb.

[sasha_B]

As of the 5 AM Eastern advisory, Kirk has tied Beryl’s peak MSLP at 934mb.

I think regardless of the exact decisions made on the TCR, it's probably safe to say that Kirk's minimum central pressure at peak intensity was deeper than Beryl's (though perhaps marginally) and that its sustained winds weren't nearly as strong. Barring any more anomalous late season activity they'll probably remain "tied", in this sense, for most intense Atlantic hurricane of the season. (I voted "two will be stronger" in the poll, but like many here I was entirely taken by surprise by the August-September 2024 MDR shutdown).

[HurricaneRyan]

*Milton accepts the challenge*

[sasha_B]

*Milton accepts the challenge*

Yknow, I wondered if another impressive storm might come along in October/November, but I can't say I was expecting my comment to age this poorly this quickly. I suppose we'll see before long whether Milton actually manages to beat out Kirk or Beryl (...or both, if some of these HAFS runs are to be believed.)

[Teban54]

Beryl's lowest pressure for the season is officially down the drain. Wind speed will probably follow suit in a few hours (pending TCR changes).

[kevin]

No.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Beryl still the strongest

It has now fallen hard. Milton won by a mile

[MarioProtVI]

Nope