ATL: MILTON - Models

[CronkPSU]

no real change in the new GFS...same basic landfall area and intensity

[SouthFLTropics]

Landfall at 06z was closer to Crystal River/Homosassa. 12z puts into Pinellas County. That's a pretty decent shift south. Impacts surge wise for Tampa Bay would be about the same though. Tampa's only hope is that this comes in south of the mouth of the bay.

[NDG]

Close up look of latest 12z GFS, landfall near Pinellas/Pasco County line.
We can now say the 12z GFS, 06z Euro & 12z ICON have a fairly good consensus.

[MrJames]

12z GFS also stays further south as it crosses Florida with an exit around Daytona now. Icon came north a little and GFS came south a little. UKMET, your move.

[xironman]

no real change in the new GFS...same basic landfall area and intensity

Yeah, not for the recent runs. But two days ago when the shear and dry air cavalry were going to ride to the rescue at the last minute are over. The model is forecasting strengthening almost to landfall.

[ronjon]

Right. Everyone sees Milton going further north than was previously thought. It could go either way. I’m curious as to why the track currently comes in near the Tampa area, but then nearly goes almost due east from there. Possibly because the trough presses down on it from the nnw?

I noticed that too Steve. That turn to the east or east-NE from the NE direction I think will be critical to the landfall location.

[ronjon]

Unfortunately for Tampa Bay metro the models are converging on this location.

[TampaWxLurker]

Canadian, which landfall had been previously all the way down in Ft Myers moves up to Sarasota.

Shows it delayed into Thursday and making a dive into the coast due east.

[LandoWill]

I don't think it's out of line to say the hurricane models have been trending south over the last 24 hours. Which makes you wonder when they will stop or will they stick with similar outcomes

[FLLurker32]

I don't think it's out of line to say the hurricane models have been trending south over the last 24 hours. Which makes you wonder when they will stop or will they stick with similar outcomes

HAFS models have been closest to actual intensity. While they’ve both nudged south from their last couple runs I wouldn’t say they’ve been trending south in any real way. They’ve moved maybe 20 miles and now others are bringing consensus to where they are.

[toad strangler]

I looked at the last few GEFS ensemble runs and they have congregated further S and E since 0z

[tolakram]

I don't think it's out of line to say the hurricane models have been trending south over the last 24 hours. Which makes you wonder when they will stop or will they stick with similar outcomes

I don't see this south trend.

[fsucory08]

I looked at the last few GEFS ensemble runs and they have congregated further S and E since 0z

They also show that due east motion once landfall is made. Most members go due east after landfall

[ElectricStorm]

HAFS-B has 165kts by 21z

[Zonacane]

HAFS-B has 165kts by 21z

And a pressure of 897

[eastcoastFL]

HAFS-B has 165kts by 21z

And a pressure of 897

Which for the first time ever for me at least I don't think it's out of the question. Normally I see a sub 900 run laugh and toss it away. Now we have to take it seriously...unreal

[TampaWxLurker]

UK model moves all the way up to Bradenton. Last run was down by Naples.

[caneman]

Landfall at 06z was closer to Crystal River/Homosassa. 12z puts into Pinellas County. That's a pretty decent shift south. Impacts surge wise for Tampa Bay would be about the same though. Tampa's only hope is that this comes in south of the mouth of the bay.

That's Pasco not Pinellas

[TampaWxLurker]

HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.

[FLLurker32]

HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.

Right into Clearwater.