How strong will Milton get?

[Beef Stew]

Mods, please make this a poll with the following options:

Less than 100 mph
100-110 mph
115-125 mph
130-140 mph
145-155 mph
160-165 mph
175 mph or greater

How strong do you think Milton will be at its peak in terms of winds; additionally, what do you think its minimum surface level pressure will be? Let's discuss here.

[aspen]

If it avoids hitting the Yucatan…I think 160-165 mph is on the table. Small core, 29-30C SSTs, strong UL ventilation from a jet streak, and some of the most aggressive model consensus in the last 5 years.

[cycloneye]

Made the poll and will be open for voting until monday at 6:11 PM EDT.

[ElectricStorm]

The sky is the limit for Milton, but a crazy strong peak isn't guaranteed. I voted 145-155mph but this might end up being pretty conservative if it does avoid the Yucatan and any unforseen dry air/mid-level shear. If that's the case I could see 175-180mph if it reaches its full potential.

[kevin]

Peak of 140 kt / 160 mph and weakening to 105 kt / 120 mph before landfall near Tampa. I'm afraid this might be the big one.

[Hurricane2022]

Hot take. It will peak around 155 kt/910. Landfall will be around 125 kts.

[zal0phus]

I will almost certainly eat a large helping of crow for this, but I think we're about to see 895-900 mb and at least 175 mph winds. Landfall around 920 mb with disproportionately low winds. Fingers crossed I'm wrong, but this feels like the biggest of big ones as of late.

[Cyclenall]

Waiting for this one. Peak of 935mb like Beryl/Helene with 130 kt winds. First visible eye at 06z Mon Oct 7th - warmest the eye gets is 17C. Landfall at 955mb 100 kt winds.

[tolakram]

130 - 140 is my guess. Hopefully not stronger.

[Beef Stew]

My best guess is a peak of 155 mph and a pressure of 926 mb- although there certainly is a part of me that thinks Milton will be a historic, sub 920’s 165+ mph cat 5 like some of the hurricane models are suggesting. As for landfall, I’m guessing 100 mph and 952 mb near Tarpon Springs.

As always- this is not a forecast.

[Teban54]

There will probably be a period of time when at least one person would claim Milton is underperforming and that everyone here is busting too high, only for Milton to bomb out hours later such that most people in the poll end up correct.

[REDHurricane]

My official O/U line for Milton will be a peak of 925mb/150kt, but my personal guess is somewhere around 907mb/160kt

[kevin]

Peak of 140 kt / 160 mph and weakening to 105 kt / 120 mph before landfall near Tampa. I'm afraid this might be the big one.

If I had to place a bet I'd still say 140 kt just to be safe. But I'm adjusting my personal prediction to 912 mb / 145 kt due to recent developments. Pinhole eyes are very tricky and can destroy a storm like it did with Delta. But if Milton manages to sustain such an eye for let's say 12 hours, we could be looking at a historic hurricane.

[Pasmorade]

I will almost certainly eat a large helping of crow for this, but I think we're about to see 895-900 mb and at least 175 mph winds. Landfall around 920 mb with disproportionately low winds. Fingers crossed I'm wrong, but this feels like the biggest of big ones as of late.

For once, these extreme forecasts could verify. Milton is in and will stay in an area of low shear and warm SSTs for at least 18 hours, and is already a borderline Cat 4.

[zal0phus]

With the rate of deepening we're seeing, I wonder if Milton will crack the top 5. What a nightmare.

[Teban54]

I feel bad for the 1 person who voted "less than 100 mph".

[Beef Stew]

Well, now it's just a competition between the 160-165 and 175+ categories...

[CrazyC83]

At this point, it could go sub-900 and into the 180-190 mph range if it doesn't get hindered by the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

Well, now it's just a competition between the 160-165 and 175+ categories...

Can't close the poll until the original 6:11 PM because if I do it, it will erase all the voting. Things are moving very fast with this cyclone since it began.

[tolakram]

I lost yesterday