ATL: MILTON - Models

[xironman]

NAM 12km is useless this run. It hits around 977mb but as it's going on a trajectory that would take it slightly north of Tampa it jumps right at landfall and goes in south of where you think it would. Only thing I can see that would cause that is the east Canadian trough 's western periphery is exiting the same time Milton is making landfall. Could happen, but I'm disregarding the tropical aspects of this run.

NAM 3km is a trip. It only goes out to 60 hours, but in the last data point it shows 3 lows pop out to the north. It's having a brain freeze or something. However IR simulation is showing degrading heading close to landfall from what it was as it starts coming into range which is encouraging (but it's the NAM)

"Lows"
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=60

IR Sim
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=60

FV3 Hi-res comes in at about 967 21z Wednesday +/- the bay/Pinellas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=57

ICON is running now. Unfortunately it's initialized with 981mb when it's like 50mb deeper. So track might be good but intensity probably not.

The 3k has the wrong physics for tropical systems, is it made mid-latitude extratropical systems, and now actually does a decent job of it

[fsucory08]

Is it just me, or does the ICON run look more north than where Milton currently is? Even at 6-12 hours it looks off on the ICON.

[Steve]

06Z GFS has Bermuda in the... eye? Some gap in the wind field anyway.

https://i.imgur.com/zZrBwqT.png

let's concentrate on florida right now.

People can do two things at once. Member who brought it up lives in Bermuda. And models indicate some effects.

[Steve]

NAM 12km is useless this run. It hits around 977mb but as it's going on a trajectory that would take it slightly north of Tampa it jumps right at landfall and goes in south of where you think it would. Only thing I can see that would cause that is the east Canadian trough 's western periphery is exiting the same time Milton is making landfall. Could happen, but I'm disregarding the tropical aspects of this run.

NAM 3km is a trip. It only goes out to 60 hours, but in the last data point it shows 3 lows pop out to the north. It's having a brain freeze or something. However IR simulation is showing degrading heading close to landfall from what it was as it starts coming into range which is encouraging (but it's the NAM)

"Lows"
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=60

IR Sim
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=60

FV3 Hi-res comes in at about 967 21z Wednesday +/- the bay/Pinellas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=57

ICON is running now. Unfortunately it's initialized with 981mb when it's like 50mb deeper. So track might be good but intensity probably not.

The 3k has the wrong physics for tropical systems, is it made mid-latitude extratropical systems, and now actually does a decent job of it

Yeah for sure. Sometimes it’s decent but usually I just run it for comedy.

[Teban54]

06Z GFS has Bermuda in the... eye? Some gap in the wind field anyway.

https://i.imgur.com/zZrBwqT.png

let's concentrate on florida right now.

People can do two things at once. Member who brought it up lives in Bermuda. And models indicate some effects.

And let's not forget a lesson we learned (or should have learned) from Helene: The landfall point is far from where the impacts end.

[JSDS]

I don’t know how to copy and paste, but this is in the latest NHC discussion: “Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south”.

What are model fields and model trackers?

[TampaWxLurker]

Big shift north on the ICON. St Pete Beach at 03z Thursday.

[Steve]

Is it just me, or does the ICON run look more north than where Milton currently is? Even at 6-12 hours it looks off on the ICON.

Maybe a little? Pressure is off for sure. What it does show is rising pressure when it landfalls at 63 hours. Also like the NAM 3km, ICON looks to be heading farther north but cuts east right at the coast for that 60 hour to 63 hour data point. The way the radar is depicted looks like Jacksonville is going to get some hours of TS conditions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=63

[Steve]

Big shift north on the ICON. St Pete Beach at 03z Thursday.

I was trying to stay on TT but I'm going to have to go over to pivotal to see what the next data points are since it's almost always faster. I'm also looking forward to the precipitation trail to see what it presents (takes longer to come in than the general model).

[Steve]

Looks like it exits down around Melbourne/Satellite Beach/Indialantic so just north of east track across the state.

[NDG]

12z ICON and 06z Euro right on top of each other with landfall.

[TampaWxLurker]

Since the ICON was previously a bit of a southern outlier, I wonder if we'll see the GFS, Euro and the hurricane models shift further north themselves.

[FLLurker32]

Since the ICON was previously a bit of a southern outlier, I wonder if we'll see the GFS, Euro and the hurricane models shift further north themselves.

GFS and some hurricane models are already north of Euro and ICON. They’re just catching up. NHC track still averages 50-100 miles off at this range so shifts of center track should still be expected.

[ronjon]

Since the ICON was previously a bit of a southern outlier, I wonder if we'll see the GFS, Euro and the hurricane models shift further north themselves.

Or Alternatively the GFS and hurricane models shift south to align with Euro/ICON. And HAF-A is already right on top of Euro/ICON.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS decent SE position from previous tracks at 42 hours.

[fsucory08]

12z GFS is due south of the 6z run by a little bit through 48 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS is coming in further south than 06z through 42 hours. We'll have to see if it makes a difference in the landfall location.

[Steve H.]

Right. Everyone sees Milton going further north than was previously thought. It could go either way. I’m curious as to why the track currently comes in near the Tampa area, but then nearly goes almost due east from there. Possibly because the trough presses down on it from the nnw?

[fsucory08]

12z GFS is coming in further south than 06z through 42 hours. We'll have to see if it makes a difference in the landfall location.

It looks like the GFS smooths out the northward turn, instead of abruptly turning NE

[chris_fit]

GFS going little south by a few miles - just noise... but interesting little wobbles there... both east and west