ATL: LESLIE - Remnants - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

This is why I just don't understand it.. Here's an example of another 75 kt system, from 2021. Elsa

[aspen]

This is why I just don't understand it.. Here's an example of another 75 kt system, from 2021. Elsa

https://i.imgur.com/SeqfZoX.jpeg

Elsa at least had recon. Leslie could be stronger, and if this keeps up then we could see a Cat 2 at 11am. Maybe a Major is on the table again.

[ChrisH-UK]

Leslie this morning looking like it may have an eye forming.

[kevin]

RI chances for 25kt/24hr are up to 42%, which would mean a 95 kt system soon. I honestly paid near-zero attention to Leslie the last 24 hours but she looks great right now.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80kt.

AL, 13, 2024100612, , BEST, 0, 130N, 376W, 80, 982, HU

[aspen]

Up to 80kt.

AL, 13, 2024100612, , BEST, 0, 130N, 376W, 80, 982, HU

Too low. Odds are this is a Cat 2.

[zzzh]

Underestimated since the beginning.

[cycloneye]

For sure, there will be revisions at the post season TCR.

[Buck]

C’mon girl, get our MH numbers up.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Worth noting Leslie seems to have been outperforming the models. The GFS was calling for a 998 mb TS for Oct 6, 12z yesterday (Oct 5, 06z) but it's now a 982 mb borderline C2.

With how she's behaving, I'm not ruling out seeing at least a minimal major soon. We need our major numbers up (but as fish, ofc)

[aspen]

Up to 80kt.

AL, 13, 2024100612, , BEST, 0, 130N, 376W, 80, 982, HU

Too low. Odds are this is a Cat 2.

Actually scratch that, Leslie started collapsing. Maybe it did briefly peak as a Cat 2, but 80 kt now seems fairly good.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hanging at 80kt.

AL, 13, 2024100700, , BEST, 0, 146N, 390W, 80, 980, HU

[Travorum]

If RCM-3's SAR geophysical model functions are to be trusted then Leslie may well have peaked as a major hurricane. Here are SAR passes starting at 10/05 08:00z with each pass about 12 hours apart, from yesterday morning to this afternoon:

Platform: RCM-3 Acquisition Date: 2024-10-05 08:16:59 UTC Storm Name: AL132024 / LESLIE Storm ID: AL13 Storm Center Longitude: -34.904 Storm Center Latitude: 10.771 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 24.958 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 89.73 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 73.00 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 84.83 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 92.24 RMax (nmi): 10.00 - 13.00	Platform: RCM-3 Acquisition Date: 2024-10-05 20:26:43 UTC Storm Name: AL132024 / LESLIE Storm ID: AL13 Storm Center Longitude: -36.173 Storm Center Latitude: 11.561 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 21.404 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 77.03 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 62.79 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 76.92 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 87.67 RMax (nmi): 8.00 - 15.00	Platform: RCM-3 Acquisition Date: 2024-10-06 08:24:38 UTC Storm Name: AL132024 / LESLIE Storm ID: AL13 Storm Center Longitude: -37.471 Storm Center Latitude: 12.754 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 33.286 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 96.38 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 84.40 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 93.52 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 99.50 RMax (nmi): 7.00 - 10.00	Platform: RCM-3 Acquisition Date: 2024-10-06 20:35:21 UTC Storm Name: AL132024 / LESLIE Storm ID: AL13 Storm Center Longitude: -38.723 Storm Center Latitude: 14.188 Incidence Angle (Degrees): 21.348 Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 106.01 Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 79.80 Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 95.53 Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 104.07 RMax (nmi): 7.00 - 9.00

[Sciencerocks]

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the
hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that
occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for
00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower
than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt
until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite
appearance.

Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at
315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by
a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the
next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or
north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward
extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the
guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north
and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest
TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's
intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical
wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow
layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear
appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water
vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's
small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along
Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in
part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity
guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit
of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity
forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In
fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the
prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these
negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above
the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over
the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[Buck]

Good morning, Leslie. Just letting you know we still acknowledge your existence, even if our eyes are elsewhere.

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Good morning, Leslie. Just letting you know we still acknowledge your existence, even if our eyes are elsewhere.

I was here. Props to these hard workers who help build the seasonal ACE.

[Sciencerocks]