ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Latest eyedrop
97% RH at 850mb
No indication an EWRC is forthcoming

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 7-1116.png

[Fancy1002]

I wake up to a Mid category four with 120 Kt, 947 millibars, And one hell of a pin eye.

[tolakram]

saved IR loop

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just less than 48 hours ago, the prospect of this turning into a major hurricane today seemed ridiculous. Turns out Milton becoming a category five is looking all the more closer to reality than not. It's over some of the warmest waters over the planet that earlier systems haven't been able to fully exploit.

Couldn't imagine what this season could've been if the lull didn't take place and the stability/dry air issues abated earlier on.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I wake up to a Mid category four with 120 Kt, 947 millibars, And one hell of a pin eye.

That makes 2 of us...Jesus. This looks like Wilma

[weeniepatrol]

F. CLOSED
G. C10

pinhole

[GCANE]

That core lightning is insane with tons of helicity

[aspen]

F. CLOSED
G. C10

pinhole

Wow, that contacted a lot in just 12 hours. Last night it was around 20nm.

[ScottNAtlanta]

When people wake up in FL and see this, there is going to be panic to get out

[aspen]

saved IR loop
https://i.imgur.com/w4UbDAa.gif

A bit of clouding up of the pinhole in recent frames. Wonder what that’s about.

[GCANE]

At some point, IMHO within 24 hrs, this will EWRC.
Milton will then be much larger and will pass over a good portion of the hottest part of the Loop Current.
He will also be under a weak anticyclone coming from the negative-tilt UL trof.
Hate to say it and no intention to panic, but this may become the strongest TC on record in the Atlantic Basin.

[InfernoFlameCat]

saved IR loop
https://i.imgur.com/w4UbDAa.gif

A bit of clouding up of the pinhole in recent frames. Wonder what that’s about.

I think its the satellite angle and the intense convection blocking the eye. Storm still appears to be EI

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1843262422431522860

[kevin]

saved IR loop
https://i.imgur.com/w4UbDAa.gif

A bit of clouding up of the pinhole in recent frames. Wonder what that’s about.

It's starting to clear out again in recent frames if you use the recent floater loop. I think it's just the eye being obscured by the CDO.

[ChrisH-UK]

A 1 hour meso sector loop, pin hole eye and lots of lightning. Those crazy sub 900mb cat 5 with 160+ knot winds looks more likely. Please No we do not want that.

Source - https://col.st/Ra4Nw

[tolakram]

I hope everyone who is debating getting out of Milton's way understands that a major hurricane in the gulf is much different from a major in the open Atlantic. Even if weakening there's still nowhere for the water to go but sloshing up on shore. Add to that the fact that Milton will be interacting with a front on landfall, and remembering what wxman57 has observed, and we could be looking at a lot of strong wind gusts well inland. I think Milton is going to create a heck of a mess, so don't be the one who comes back on here in a week telling us this was unexpected.

Be prepared, have your supplies, best of luck.

[ScottNAtlanta]

[kevin]

Both planes seem to be lining up for passes that will sample the SW and NE quadrants, which haven't been sampled yet.

[Jr0d]

While the current compact size hopefully will prevent widespread surge we saw with Katrina, it tracking across the Gulf will likely enhance surge in SW Florida, maybe the Yucatan will somewhat block this effect but doubtful as the wind field is forecast to expand after Milton passes by the peninsula. The high swells from the storm will be an erosion problem all around the gulf also.

I really do not know what to do. The models show Key West being relatively safe with the extreme winds(and high surge) just missing us, as Milton keeps drifting slightly south of the forecast, it makes weary of an extreme impact instead of the predicted tropical storm conditions.

Evacuating is starting to look more reasonable by the hour for myself and many others in the lower Florida Keys.

Unlike the other storms we go brushed with, most lower keys/Key West residents are extremely concerned about Milton, especially those who were there for Wilma..

[AutoPenalti]

While the current compact size hopefully will prevent widespread surge we saw with Katrina, it tracking across the Gulf will likely enhance surge in SW Florida, maybe the Yucatan will somewhat block this effect but doubtful as the wind field is forecast to expand after Milton passes by the peninsula. The high swells from the storm will be an erosion problem all around the gulf also.

I really do not know what to do. The models show Key West being relatively safe with the extreme winds(and high surge) just missing us, as Milton keeps drifting slightly south of the forecast, it makes weary of an extreme impact instead of the predicted tropical storm conditions.

Evacuating is starting to look more reasonable by the hour for myself and many others in the lower Florida Keys.

Unlike the other storms we go brushed with, most lower keys/Key West residents are extremely concerned about Milton, especially those who were there for Wilma..

It's the angle of approach that concerns me and I'm up in Northern Broward.