ATL: MILTON - Models

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

18Z earlies
https://i.imgur.com/CuY2ncu.png

Looks like consensus is back to Tampa, a hair north of NHC

[otowntiger]

revisiting the 12z euro, it looks like it manages to stay right in the bay up the Egmont Channel, not necessarily Bradenton.

https://i.imgur.com/aTKBNvw.png

Which image is from the most recent run?

[BobHarlem]

revisiting the 12z euro, it looks like it manages to stay right in the bay up the Egmont Channel, not necessarily Bradenton.

https://i.imgur.com/aTKBNvw.png

Which image is from the most recent run?

That is the most recent run.

[ConvergenceZone]

HAFS-A still strong close to landfall, but weakening.
https://i.imgur.com/BS3XHH7.png

IF it does happen to get that close to land at the strength, will it enhance the surge, even if it weakens later closer to the coast?

[xironman]

Just watched Levi's video on tropical tidbits, looks like Scorpion reef will be our next model benchmark diamond.
The northeastward bend in track is forecast to begin near there and most of the variability in the forecast track will be due to upper air modeling success or failure at that point in the track. Levi also noted the possibility of 40+ knot shear if the storm tries to track north of Tampa bay. That would be too late to help the surge issue but might lower wind impact inland.

It looks like the 200 mb winds have backed off on both the GFS and the Euro just before landfall from the 0z to 12z runs. Consequently less dry air intrusion as well.

[tropicwatch]

AF HH headed to the barn, must be having issues. Just when it was getting interesting.

[kevin]

12z, Oct 5, hurricane model blend, Milton

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 928mb/125kt
HMON = 924mb/129kt
HAFS-A = 908mb/158kt
HAFS-B = 901mb/157kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

The 12z blend shows Milton reaching hurricane strength roughly 4 hours from now. However, this has already happened and shows how Milton has exceeded forecasts for the majority of its short lifetime so far. The 12z hurricane model blend calls for RI into a category 4 hurricane within the next 30 hours. Milton peaks as a 135 kt category 4 hurricane in this blend. However, the uncertainty in terms of intensity is large at this point in time with a standard deviation of 24 kt. As such, peak intensities in the range 110 - 160 kt should be considered realistic. Either way, Milton will most likely become one of the strongest hurricanes of the season. The landfall time is slowly narrowing down and now sits between +87/+96 hours depending on the model. All models show some form of weakening near landfall. However, in most models this is only a case in the last few hours before landfall and as such all details will matter when it comes to this weakening trend. The average landfall intensity in these 4 models is 955 mb and 94 kt.

Blend
PEAK: 918 mb @ 72 hrs | 135 kt @ 54 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 22.5
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 992 / 54
06 / 986 / 61
12 / 977 / 73 - C1
18 / 971 / 83
24 / 962 / 95 - C2
30 / 953 / 106 - C3
36 / 944 / 122 - C4
42 / 932 / 133
48 / 925 / 135
54 / 923 / 135
60 / 922 / 133
66 / 921 / 131
72 / 918 / 127
78 / 929 / 117
84 / 942 / 110
90 / 956 / 81 - landfall
96 / 968 / 73
102 / 977 / 66
108 / 985 / 69
114 / 989 / 61
120 / 992 / 55
126 / 980 / 53

--- Previous blend analyses ---

06z, Oct 5: 940 mb / 108 kt (ACE 14.7)
12z, Oct 5: 932 mb / 121 kt (ACE 15.8)
00z, Oct 6: 914 mb / 135 kt (ACE 21.1)
06z, Oct 6: 920 mb / 132 kt (ACE 21.5)
12z, Oct 6: 918 mb / 135 kt (ACE 22.5)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I know few people here are interested in where this goes after Florida but the spread is quite impressive. Everything from absorption by the front (GFS) to continued hurricane into Bermuda on Saturday (NAVGEM)

[TampaWxLurker]

18z ICON running. Further south so far, much closer to the NW Yucatan.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z ICON running. Further south so far, much closer to the NW Yucatan.

Landfall Sarasota/Bradenton

[BobHarlem]

18z Icon similar to 12z, between Sarasota and Bradenton (Longboat Key), but slower, exits near Vero Beach.

[TampaWxLurker]

Has that hard right turn just after landfall like it did a few runs ago.

[skillz305]

18z GFS in progress..... please don't come near Vero like the 18z ICON.

[dukeblue219]

18z GFS in progress..... please don't come near Vero like the 18z ICON.

At 54 hours it's noticeably S and W of 60 hour point for 12Z...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly with the consistent short-term southerly trends I wonder if this thing just ends up getting tangled up in the Yucatan for a bit. AI-based Euro is nearly a landfall. Explosively intensifying major hurricanes are erratic with motion, especially ones that are slowly moving. That would take the lid off intensity quite a bit.

[TampaWxLurker]

Looks just marginally weaker (maybe ~5mb higher) through the first 60 hours, as well as being further south. Wonder how close it has to get to the Yucatan before land interaction starts.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS is another slower mover, is getting pretty far north around 75 hours though, which was when the 12z made landfall roughly. Looks like it's going to be north of Tampa again.

[Blown Away]

GFS Trend

[shah83]

The 18z GFS run is garbage, I think.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS refuses to concede against the models with a more southern solution; looks like a landfall south of Cedar Key.