ATL: MILTON - Models

[LandoWill]

So south shift is coming. I fully expected this, it's going to be hard to ever sell people in Tampa about a hurricane after this one heh

[tolakram]

6Z hurricane models

[Cat5James]

So south shift is coming. I fully expected this, it's going to be hard to ever sell people in Tampa about a hurricane after this one heh
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZNX8BlWsAA60Lc?format=jpg&name=large

South shift still leaves Tampa bay very much in the cone

[tolakram]

So south shift is coming. I fully expected this, it's going to be hard to ever sell people in Tampa about a hurricane after this one heh
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZNX8BlWsAA60Lc?format=jpg&name=large

I'll warn you in thread, if you can't control the silly angry outbursts you will be taking a break.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/mattdevittwx/status/1842928191138074850

[johngaltfla]

I'll be very curious to see the 1800 Z runs once more recon data is fed into the models. I haven't noticed, is there a high altitude mission schedule for today and tomorrow?

All of that will give us a clue as to the ENE/NE turn.

EDIT: Never mind, just found the NOAA flights up to 45,000 in the recon thread, missed it earlier. Can't believe there isn't one today however.

[WeatherBoy2000]

So south shift is coming. I fully expected this, it's going to be hard to ever sell people in Tampa about a hurricane after this one heh
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZNX8BlWsAA60Lc?format=jpg&name=large

Although the southward shift is encouraging for those in Tampa there could still easily be a shift back north. Models are still clearly trying to figure this thing out. Tampa is hardly out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination.

[eastcoastFL]

I'll be very curious to see the 1800 Z runs once more recon data is fed into the models. I haven't noticed, is there a high altitude mission schedule for today and tomorrow?

All of that will give us a clue as to the ENE/NE turn.

EDIT: Never mind, just found the NOAA flights up to 45,000 in the recon thread, missed it earlier. Can't believe there isn't one today however.

Looks like tomorrow

SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO).....ADDED
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 06/1200Z
B. NOAA3 01HHA TDR
C. 06/0800Z
D. 22.0N 94.0W
E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 92.5W FOR 06/1800Z. (NO CHANGES)
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/0000Z AND 07/1200Z, DEPARTING
KLAL AT 06/2000Z AND 07/0800Z, RESPECTIVELY. (CHANGED)

[tolakram]

Globals

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The only way to read these models is “significant hurricane near Tampa landfalling perpendicular to the coast.” That is a nightmare scenario for storm surge. Anyone who takes comfort in a 20 mile shift in landfall is fooling themselves, the models just don’t have that sort of accuracy at this range.

[StPeteMike]

The only way to read these models is “significant hurricane near Tampa.” Anyone who takes comfort in a 20 mile shift is landfall is fooling themselves, the models just don’t have that sort of accuracy at this range.

Exactly! The models could easily move back up to the track north of Tampa Bay come with the 18z or 0z. If I remember correctly, the models for Helene didn’t really hone in to the Big Bend area until 2 days out.

The models on late Monday will be more reliable, to me at least.

Just know, the models have kept the nasty side to the north and south, so a south track just south of Tampa Bay will still bring heavy rains, strong winds, and the higher risk of tornados.

[tolakram]

Trust in the ICON just got real, will it be correct again with sniffing out the east/south shift early?

Do you trust the Euro jump north and stop solution?


Or the ICON; stay well south but also weaker solution?

[NDG]

12z ICON stronger and big shift to the north.

[NDG]

Trust in the ICON just got real, will it be correct again with sniffing out the east/south shift early?

Do you trust the Euro jump north and stop solution?
https://i.imgur.com/FpLYKKi.gif

Or the ICON; stay well south but also weaker solution?
https://i.imgur.com/mLirR6a.gif

You spoke too soon before its 12z run.
ICON has been fairly inconsistent with Milton so far, IMO.

[Travorum]

12z ICON stronger and big shift to the north.

https://i.imgur.com/HSWeeny.png

Let the windshield wiping begin. This is why I'm reluctant to call out shifts North/South before seeing a trend of more than one model run.

[Kazmit]

I didn’t trust the 06z ICON anyway. Far too weak.

[islandgirl45]

12z ICON stronger and big shift to the north.

https://i.imgur.com/HSWeeny.png

Where does this model exit the east coast?

[tolakram]

Still running

[tolakram]

12z ICON stronger and big shift to the north.

https://i.imgur.com/HSWeeny.png

Where does this model exit the east coast?

[SFLcane]

That was some shift..