ATL: MILTON - Models

[xironman]

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.

I don't have access to the 6z, but the 0z did not have Milton at its current pressure until Monday night. I threw it out.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS simulated IR loop:

[gatorcane]

GFS trend, last 5 runs:

[NDG]

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.

Anyone have thr 06z Euro and ensembles beyind 72?

Slightly further south than previous 0z run into Sarasota/Venice, but it shows very little strengthening in its entire forecast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

On those models that show a weaker storm, how much weaker? Still a hurricane?

UKMET and Canadian only as a strong tropical storm, ICON only hurricane force winds at wind gusts.

You can pretty safely throw those two out for intensity, they are way too weak in the short-term (only show Mitlon deepening by another 10mb or so).

[NDG]

Something to point out from the latest 06z GFS is that it shows Milton with a tight small core all the way through landfall, with the hurricane force winds in a fairly tight area, so hopefully the storm surge will not cover as large of an area like Helene had.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.

Looks like the 8 am position is already south of the 5 am cone.

[ronjon]

Think we're seeing a slight shift south in the guidance this morning in addition to some mixed signals on strength. Euro the last couple of runs into Sarasota. The ICON, UKMET, and CMC sticking to their southern tracks near Ft Myers. GFS still into Tampa Bay along with HWRF and HAF-A. I'm aware of the stronger storm more north trajectory but when I look back at Helene, ICON and Euro-AI nailed the track but were consistently weaker than the actual storm. So not sure stronger in model will always mean more northward track.

[kevin]

I'll post the next full blend at 12z. But the last two peak intensities of the blends are as follows:

00z, Oct 6: 914mb, 135kt
06z, Oct 6: 920mb, 132kt

[NDG]

Something to point out as well is that the models even the GFS show Milton moving ESE during the next 24-36 hrs. so it shouldn't be of any surprise to anything if it looses latitude while tracks east before being pulled to the NE by the next trough.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.

Looks like the 8 am position is already south of the 5 am cone.

https://i.imgur.com/EjAaCXd.png

Yeah but it's also exactly where the GFS pegged it at 12z: 22.5N.

[SFLcane]

12z Guidance shifts south..

[ronjon]

Based on the 12z model suite it appears NHC may nudge landfall south of Tampa Bay during next advisory.

[NDG]

Think we're seeing a slight shift south in the guidance this morning in addition to some mixed signals on strength. Euro the last couple of runs into Sarasota. The ICON, UKMET, and CMC sticking to their southern tracks near Ft Myers. GFS still into Tampa Bay along with HWRF and HAF-A. I'm aware of the stronger storm more north trajectory but when I look back at Helene, ICON and Euro-AI nailed the track but were consistently weaker than the actual storm. So not sure stronger in model will always mean more northward track.

GFS pressure was not that much lower than the Euro and ICON, it had it in the high 940s mb 48 hrs before landfall, that was not that much way off than actual pressure at landfall. The Euro and ICON also had Helene's pressure down into the low 950s mb alos 48 hrs before landfall. They were not that much higher.
To be off ~10 mb for global models is not unusual.

[NDG]

12z Guidance shifts south..

https://i.postimg.cc/bwKJfYk8/IMG-9568.png

I can see TV Mets start prematurely sounding the all clear for Tampa with the consensus shifting south on this run.

[SFLcane]

Nhc is north of consensus model if this continues expect a few more bumps south. NHC is red and yellow is TVCN

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Nhc is north of consensus model if this continues expect a few more bumps south. NHC is red and yellow is TVCN

https://i.postimg.cc/bvyzhGr7/IMG-1578.png

The trends you want to see for Tampa, although not so great for those south.

[jasons2k]

12z Guidance shifts south..

https://i.postimg.cc/bwKJfYk8/IMG-9568.png

I can see TV Mets start prematurely sounding the all clear for Tampa with the consensus shifting south on this run.

Have some faith in the Tampa TV Mets. They’re actually pretty good at this.

And a friendly reminder let’s keep the discussion about TV Media in the discussion thread.

[toad strangler]

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.

Anyone have thr 06z Euro and ensembles beyind 72?

6z Euro ensembles except for two members are all Clearwater and S. The lions share between Cape Coral and Clearwater

[NDG]

The not so good British and COAMPS models is what are pulling the latest consensus Model to the right of the more reliable GFS and Euro.
Hopefully the NHC will continue to use a blend between the GFS and Euro for their forecast track after the consensus model not do so well with past two Hurricanes in the GOM.