ATL: MILTON - Models

[xironman]

I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

It is a bit small, but once it fills in the SE side it will be close to stretching across the BOC

[caneman]

I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

Agree. I see many people giving credit to ICON for Helene but in my mind it was the GFS that was the most accurate. It had very few swings unlike the Icon that had wild swings and adjustments. I haven't seen a verification for this just personal observation.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

I'm expecting a southward shift at 12z in the GFS with the ensembles trending that way. It's currently the last global onboard with the Tampa landfall.

[Blown Away]

06z Hafs-B… @50 mile South shift in landfall point from 00z…

[caneman]

I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

I'm expecting a southward shift at 12z in the GFS with the ensembles trending that way. It's currently the last global onboard with the Tampa landfall.

The hurricane models who so far have had it becoming stronger would need to be taken into account. As a stronger storm goes more Northerly.

[xironman]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/7YVKNxkz/IMG-0533.jpg [/url]
06z Hafs-B… @50 mile South shift in landfall point from 00z…

Wacked once again by dry air just before landfall. Timing will be everything

[BobHarlem]

6z hmon is unchanged in landfall point from 0z, Crystal River. Pattern of stronger storm more north remains in the 6z runs still.

[toad strangler]

0Z UKMET was way S into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. Albeit weaker and probably a reason. INot sure if I saw any mention of it so here it is.

[BobHarlem]

HAFS-a with a slight right/south shift also from Homosassa at 0z to Tarpon Springs at 6z. Rapid weakening right before landfall here also.

[NDG]

I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

I'm expecting a southward shift at 12z in the GFS with the ensembles trending that way. It's currently the last global onboard with the Tampa landfall.

The rest of the global models show Milton much weaker thus taking a more southerly track. The only way the GFS shifts south with them if it also shows Milton weakening fairly fast way before making landfall.

[toad strangler]

6z ICON very similar to 0Z UKMET into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. I guess these two are the S most of the globals?? Again, weaker. I think I’m gonna root for these two lol

[Cat5James]

6z ICON very similar to 0Z UKMET into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. I guess these two are the S most of the globals?? Again, weaker. I think I’m gonna root for these two lol

Ill cheer for this scenario as well. I'm dreading what might take place with storm surge if Milton does not make landfall south of tampa bay

[caneman]

6z ICON very similar to 0Z UKMET into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. I guess these two are the S most of the globals?? Again, weaker. I think I’m gonna root for these two lol

Lets hope the gfs follows which means weaker and would be good news for Florida. Having said that, I just don't ever trust the UKMET and contrary to what some say, the Icon had big swings with Helene so we will see.

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM, near Cedar Key:

As far as where it landfalls on the west coast: Weaker means more south, stronger more north. The ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON (European-based models) might be too weak, so they go south of the Tampa area. The American-based models GFS, NAVGEM, and hurricane models are much stronger so go into Tampa or north. A blend of them all is probably the likely scenario.

[BobHarlem]

6z HWRF, right up Tampa Bay, slight shift right/south from 0z which was Treasure Island, and 6z then exits into the Atlantic near Oak Hill/New Smyrna Beach.

[wzrgirl1]

On those models that show a weaker storm, how much weaker? Still a hurricane?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.

Anyone have thr 06z Euro and ensembles beyind 72?

[NDG]

On those models that show a weaker storm, how much weaker? Still a hurricane?

UKMET and Canadian only as a strong tropical storm, ICON only hurricane force winds at wind gusts.

[ronjon]

06z HWRF considerably slower than other models with Thursday landfall.