ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Wow, Milton is much stronger than estimated just 2 hours ago.

[mantis83]

:double: I think we are in big trouble

wow, still not fully organized yet either.....

[caneman]

We are now close to 72 hours out. Forecast track error goes down to just 75 miles now. Seems to be zoning in on Tampa to Ft. Meyers. I'd probably bet on Sarasota.

[cycloneye]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 51kt at 11:04z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 985.6mb at 11:01z

[NDG]

Time to throw all the recent models out the window. Milton's real time situation is so radically different from the model initialization that they're practically worthless. 12z should hopefully be much more accurate.

06z GFS just about nailed its current position, no need to throw it out the window!!!



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=12

[Keldeo1997]

Time to throw all the recent models out the window. Milton's real time situation is so radically different from the model initialization that they're practically worthless. 12z should hopefully be much more accurate.

06z GFS just about nailed its current position, no need to throw it out the window!!!

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=12

But its way off on intensity

[xironman]

Time to throw all the recent models out the window. Milton's real time situation is so radically different from the model initialization that they're practically worthless. 12z should hopefully be much more accurate.

06z GFS just about nailed its current position, no need to throw it out the window!!!

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=12

The track and speed going forward will be effected because different layers of the atmosphere will be guiding it.

[eastcoastFL]

Lol like winds are 50kts for now. So probably see a little bump at 11am from the NHC but still a TS for now.

[Pasmorade]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 51kt at 11:04z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 985.6mb at 11:01z

Why in the world is Milton that deep?

[NDG]

Time to throw all the recent models out the window. Milton's real time situation is so radically different from the model initialization that they're practically worthless. 12z should hopefully be much more accurate.

06z GFS just about nailed its current position, no need to throw it out the window!!!

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=12

But its way off on intensity

Which is not unusual for a global forecasting the exact pressure of a fairly small storm. It shows its pressure falling 24 mb during the next 24 hrs, that is the most important thing.

[BobHarlem]

I wonder if they'll put out a special 8AM for this. No watches/warnings currently but that's a pretty big difference from the 5am still.

[eastcoastFL]

God bit of shear to Milton’s north right now, should keep him from gettin too crazy short term. But he will move into a more favorable environment tonight and tomorrow.

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if they'll put out a special 8AM for this. No watches/warnings currently but that's a pretty big difference from the 5am still.

Watches have to go up soon. West coast will be in the 72 hour window.

[xironman]

Lola like winds are 50kts for now. So probably see a little bump at 11am from the NHC but still a TS for now.

True, still a TS but they have not sampled the whole storm yet. My guess is the SW side may have some surprises.

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842888319295758780

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/mattsitkowski/status/1842887509962842509

[BobHarlem]

Vortex message from the dropsonde was 993mb.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842888319295758780

986 mb extrap pressure, you forgot to mention.
Dropsonde showed 993 mb pressure with 19 knots winds so at most 990 mb is the lowest.

[Keldeo1997]

This drop seems like giant red flag. Already has that V shape

[xironman]

The core is coming along well

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)