ATL: MILTON - Models

[SFLcane]

They are TCVN huggers for good reason, they will nudge south at 11 as long as the tcvn is doing the same.

https://i.postimg.cc/wjr6gRQG/nnn.png

The model fight isnt going away today-this setup is far more complex than helene , need to continue to look at the means and consensus but the north trend has flipped for now.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/wjr6gRQG/nnn.png

The model fight isnt going away today-this setup is far more complex than helene , need to continue to look at the means and consensus but the north trend has flipped for now.

I’m hoping that flip to the south I indicative of a weaker storm. Euro comes in south of Tampa as a 60kt storm.

South means weaker, and we are seeing a trend of weakening on approach but the small systems(think Charley) are tricky as noted in the disco.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/wjr6gRQG/nnn.png

The model fight isnt going away today-this setup is far more complex than helene , need to continue to look at the means and consensus but the north trend has flipped for now.

https://i.postimg.cc/0NpDSvjP/hhhh.gif

That track gets hurricane warnings for the entire SE coast.

[SFLcane]

The model fight isnt going away today-this setup is far more complex than helene , need to continue to look at the means and consensus but the north trend has flipped for now.

https://i.postimg.cc/0NpDSvjP/hhhh.gif

That track gets hurricane warnings for the entire SE coast.

[kevin]

06z ICON quite far south but also pretty weak with a peak in the 980s and landfall in the 990s. I know Wxman also called for a south track so it could indeed be the case. But my instincts also tell me that a stronger storm means further north and unfortunately I think a high-end storm seems likely to me. So I still feel like ICON is too far south due to this. Either way, it's very difficult to say specific things about landfall when we don't have any recon data yet. The recon data now will hopefully help to narrow down the forecast.

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/0NpDSvjP/hhhh.gif

That track gets hurricane warnings for the entire SE coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/Kv2PZR8Q/nnn.jpg

Thats a great depiction of where we are at with the system. Newbies-the two tracks that matter the most to the NHC here, the NHC current official track which is north and the TVCN which they follow like a bible and will not be off that for very long. It is rare for them to go against the TVCN so look for subtle but important shifts south as long as the tvcn is south. They are wise they dont move "tracks' nearly as fast as we do on this board, follow their track for planning, and only use what's here for what's coming down the pipe, almost a preview.

[SFLcane]

That track gets hurricane warnings for the entire SE coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/Kv2PZR8Q/nnn.jpg

Thats a great depiction of where we are at with the system. Newbies-the two tracks that matter the most to the NHC here, the NHC current official track which is north and the TVCN which they follow like a bible and will not be off that for very long. It is rare for them to go against the TVCN so look for subtle but important shifts south as long as the tvcn is south. They are wise they dont move "tracks' nearly as fast as we do on this board, follow their track for planning, and only use what's here for what's coming down the pipe, almost a preview.

Majority of GEFS is now south of Tampa… hmm

[DESTRUCTION5]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/rpPHbScf/IMG-9564.gif

Albeit trending much weaker this morning on approach and while crossing the state.

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/rpPHbScf/IMG-9564.gif

Albeit trending much weaker this morning on approach and while crossing the state.

At this point cat 1-2 could certainly as usual bring lots of problems.

[StormPyrate]

Thats a great depiction of where we are at with the system. Newbies-the two tracks that matter the most to the NHC here, the NHC current official track which is north and the TVCN which they follow like a bible and will not be off that for very long. It is rare for them to go against the TVCN so look for subtle but important shifts south as long as the tvcn is south. They are wise they dont move "tracks' nearly as fast as we do on this board, follow their track for planning, and only use what's here for what's coming down the pipe, almost a preview.

What is the best source of TVCN and does it come out in and early and late version for each run?

[DESTRUCTION5]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/rpPHbScf/IMG-9564.gif

Albeit trending much weaker this morning on approach and while crossing the state.

At this point cat 1-2 could certainly as usual bring lots of problems.

Just don't look at the long term GFS this morn.

[jlauderdal]

Albeit trending much weaker this morning on approach and while crossing the state.

At this point cat 1-2 could certainly as usual bring lots of problems.

Just don't look at the long term GFS this morn.

October delivering systems, intereating setup in the longer term.

[Keldeo1997]

Well you can throw all these runs into the trash for now.

[eastcoastFL]

The model fight isnt going away today-this setup is far more complex than helene , need to continue to look at the means and consensus but the north trend has flipped for now.

https://i.postimg.cc/0NpDSvjP/hhhh.gif

That track gets hurricane warnings for the entire SE coast.

Probably TS warning from Jupiter south, maybe Ft. Pierce. I can’t see any reason there for hurricane warnings in broward or dade.

[BobHarlem]

12z probably won't have much if any recon data, although it may have the stronger init based on the recon pressure (~986mb extra 993mb dropsonde vs 1003mb on the 5am advisory). 18z maybe, and 0z should have it for sure. That recon report does mean I'd probably lean toward the stronger models, so NHC's track seems solid.

[wzrgirl1]

Thats a great depiction of where we are at with the system. Newbies-the two tracks that matter the most to the NHC here, the NHC current official track which is north and the TVCN which they follow like a bible and will not be off that for very long. It is rare for them to go against the TVCN so look for subtle but important shifts south as long as the tvcn is south. They are wise they dont move "tracks' nearly as fast as we do on this board, follow their track for planning, and only use what's here for what's coming down the pipe, almost a preview.

What is the best source of TVCN and does it come out in and early and late version for each run?

That is what I was just searching for. Could not find it.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/0NpDSvjP/hhhh.gif

That track gets hurricane warnings for the entire SE coast.

Probably TS warning from Jupiter south, maybe Ft. Pierce. I can’t see any reason there for hurricane warnings in broward or dade.

Not at this point and the current track, it would have to takea significant shift south which would mean its weaker. Recnon find lower pressures so the more intense models will probably win out, will see. Small storm, changes can happen quickly.

[NDG]

I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

[BobHarlem]

6z HAFS-B shifted right/south to between Clearwater and Tarpon Springs near Dunedin (0z was Crystal River)