ATL: MILTON - Models

[crimi481]

The last animated forecast model trac, goes over my home in N. Englewood
Q. What is that stormy blob over the Yucatan? Is it nudging towards Milton in effort to join him?

[Hurricane Mike]

The models that show just north of Tampa would be horrendous for surge impacts near Tampa Bay.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs is noticeably faster moving than 18z (0z matches the 12z better), but around the same strength so far (to 69 hours).

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs landfall TI/Madeira Beach/St. Petersburg Wednesday morning, exits into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach or Ormond. Races up I-4. Landfall time is back to what the 12z had (18z was slower).

[CronkPSU]

GFS at 954 84 hours out, right around tampa

[Pelicane]

0z gfs landfall St. Petersburg Wednesday morning.

https://i.imgur.com/qyOH835.png

Pretty much exactly where the NHC forecast is.

[TampaWxLurker]

Decent shift south, from Citrus County to mid-Pinellas. Still not good.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS brought the landfall time back by as much as 12 hours compared to the 18z.

[Flwxguy86]

Decent shift south, from Citrus County to mid-Pinellas. Still not good.

Seems pretty accurate, If you punch in the lat and long for right at or around landfall it's very close to st pete beach and mediera beach. Which is horrible for this area. Historic Storm Surge and winds this area has likely never seen in recorded history. Not looking forward to this but the models have been fairly consistent for quite a few runs now. The NHC cone seems a lot bigger than what the models seem to be hinting. I really want the Hurricane Hunters data tomorrow to see what changes if anything.

[869MB]

Another negative aspect of this latest 00Z GFS run I noticed is that it doesn’t have drier air wrapping around the center of circulation until after Milton makes landfall as compared to some of the hurricane models runs from earlier today.

[CrazyC83]

0z icon, basically unchanged from 18z. 0z does exit into the Atlantic further north though, near Melbourne instead of Ft Pierce/Vero at the 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/2FXeGOU.gif

Interesting that such model also doesn't weaken it on approach, possibly because of a more favorable trough interaction (unusual on a west-to-east track, but perhaps it becomes a strong longwave?)

[Tekken_Guy]

Decent shift south, from Citrus County to mid-Pinellas. Still not good.

Seems pretty accurate, If you punch in the lat and long for right at or around landfall it's very close to st pete beach and mediera beach. Which is horrible for this area. Historic Storm Surge and winds this area has likely never seen in recorded history. Not looking forward to this but the models have been fairly consistent for quite a few runs now. The NHC cone seems a lot bigger than what the models seem to be hinting. I really want the Hurricane Hunters data tomorrow to see what changes if anything.

Would a Pinellas or a Pasco landfall be worse for the area?

[LandoWill]

So the 18z shifted north, then 00z shifted back south, so we're going to do the windshield wiper thing for the next day or so it seems. When will we get better data for the models to incorporate?

[caneman]

Close up look of latest early 0z Tropical models. Landfall tracks concentrated between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key.

https://i.imgur.com/eQAKfh9.jpeg

We gotta be hoping for a 2 or less for best case but ?

I told my Family in Hernado to start paying attention because time is of the essence, also I know people freaked out in SC with the port closure, has anything similar happened near the Tampa area, just curious if stors are stocked up or did people panic buy down there as well?

One of the cruise ships that I know of is coming back in a day earlier. I don't sense anyone panicing but it's being talked about heavily with so much debris out still that would become flying missiles.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So the 18z shifted north, then 00z shifted back south, so we're going to do the windshield wiper thing for the next day or so it seems. When will we get better data for the models to incorporate?

Recon flight should arrive by 12z, so I think by the 12z suite of models tomorrow we'll have some of that data ingested.

[Ubuntwo]

So the 18z shifted north, then 00z shifted back south, so we're going to do the windshield wiper thing for the next day or so it seems. When will we get better data for the models to incorporate?

The first low level fix is scheduled for 12z tomorrow, the first upper level synoptic fight is 0z monday.

[lilbump3000]

If this trend continues, they might need to start making some decisions for the Tampa Bay Region soon.



https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[BobHarlem]

0z Canadian slightly right/south of 12z. Overall pattern I'm noticing is weaker stays further south, stronger veers more northward, which probably leans toward the GFS/NHC track being the better bet.

[caneman]

Decent shift south, from Citrus County to mid-Pinellas. Still not good.

Seems pretty accurate, If you punch in the lat and long for right at or around landfall it's very close to st pete beach and mediera beach. Which is horrible for this area. Historic Storm Surge and winds this area has likely never seen in recorded history. Not looking forward to this but the models have been fairly consistent for quite a few runs now. The NHC cone seems a lot bigger than what the models seem to be hinting. I really want the Hurricane Hunters data tomorrow to see what changes if anything.

Would a Pinellas or a Pasco landfall be worse for the area?

Pasco as it would be close enough to get the worst of the wind and would maximize surge.

[Flwxguy86]

Seems pretty accurate, If you punch in the lat and long for right at or around landfall it's very close to st pete beach and mediera beach. Which is horrible for this area. Historic Storm Surge and winds this area has likely never seen in recorded history. Not looking forward to this but the models have been fairly consistent for quite a few runs now. The NHC cone seems a lot bigger than what the models seem to be hinting. I really want the Hurricane Hunters data tomorrow to see what changes if anything.

Would a Pinellas or a Pasco landfall be worse for the area?

Pasco as it would be close enough to get the worst of the wind and would maximize surge.

Honestly, That is like picking your most favorite turd that you have to eat! lol Niether option is great and both expose Tampa bay to tremendous amounts of surge with high winds on top of the surge. Most ideal for Tampa would be a track down towards Ft. Meyers or a track way up near cedar key. Any in the middle are going to be varying degrees of some pretty intense weather.